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anom_aleez 1 h ago

And it will be elsewhere government leaders suppress data in the name of not looking like bad parents, for lack of a better analogy.

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MickLittle 2 hs ago

Another pay wall.

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whatisliquidity 2 hs ago

Those catacombs need to be maintained somehow.

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Playaguy 3 hs ago

"I want you to remember these people died WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus” ---The president of the Italian Civil Protection Service in a morning briefing

What does this actually mean?

It means that the Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 88%. If true, this would mean the total number of Italians who have actually died of Covid19 could be as low as ~700. Which would bring Italy, currently a statistical outlier in terms of Covid19 fatalities, well in line with the rest of the world.

It means thousands of deaths currently widely attributed to Covid19, and being used to justify the introduction of measures equating to medical martial law, may not have died of covid19 at all but of their serious chronic co-morbidity (cancer, heart disease etc.).

This statistic is not a secret, or in any way controversial, it was in The Telegraph after all, but people seem to be ignoring it, or reading around it, or perhaps simply not understanding it. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

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PizzaBadger 3 hs ago

No surprise here. Lots of deaths of going unreported. But also countless infections going unreported. The data is far from complete.

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Cora-0467 8 hs ago

I'm in France and it's the same thing. the director general of health said that it was difficult to count outside hospitals. he said that the over-mortality compared to last year was 35%. it is starting to list deaths in homes for the aged (over 10,000 establishments), and it has already recorded almost 900 deaths that have not been counted since the start of the epidemic. we are today at 4503 deaths in hospitals + 903.

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TenYearsTenDays 8 hs ago

Did you mean this : https://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/la-mortalite-est-en-hausse-de-9-a-l-echelon-national-20200330 ? It looks like national excess mortality is up 9%, but it can be as high as 40%(!!!) in some areas: >Il apparaissait ainsi d'après ces données que les départements où la mortalité avait le plus augmenté sur cette période étaient Mayotte (+40%), le Haut-Rhin (+38%), la Corse-de-Sud (+31%), et les Deux-Sèvres (+27%). Dans l'Oise, où est apparu en février le premier groupement de cas importants en France, cette hausse s'établit à 14%. Holy crap, thank you for the information!

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happygloaming 9 hs ago

Yes yes "more experienced than anticipated" or some such. Obviously this shouldn't cone as a surprise but it's valuable to show actual examples so we can extrapolate from there. I recall reading about the Spanish army coming across an abandoned nursing home with elderly people dead in their beds. Were they tested????

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TenYearsTenDays 8 hs ago

That was such a horror story, one of the saddest to come out around this thing. > Were they tested???? This is a good question, one I don't know the answer to with certainty. My guess would be no, that the situation is the same in Itay and most places: those that die outside of the hospital are generally not tested even if they are suspected COVID cases. This makes sense since tests are scarce right now, and unless innovations are made, reagents are going to start running out. So they are being conserved like gold. This scarcity is why many developed countries haven't been testing everyone like one would have to do to contact trace and isolate. That said, some innovations have been made, such as this one from the [Danish 'CDC'](https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fq427p/danish_health_agency_solves_problem_in_shortage/) although I personally have some reservations about whether that may affect accuracy, I haven't looked into it in depth to really know.

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Surfsupforthesummer 10 hs ago

Can we get anymore bad news from you? You literally live for this shit.

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happygloaming 9 hs ago

Please sit down, I'm sorry to inform you that you're not on r/rainbowsandskittles anymore, you seem to have somehow stumbled into r/collapse.

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Surfsupforthesummer 9 hs ago

I ain’t talking about recent posts. Go back 80+ days, they live for this shit.

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happygloaming 9 hs ago

I know. I'm teasing you.

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Surfsupforthesummer 9 hs ago

Teasing could be good during this time. It put a smile on my face that’s for sure.

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happygloaming 9 hs ago

😋

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dankhorse25 10 hs ago

This means that if 60% of the city has been infected them the mortality rate is close to 1% which is insanely high.

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_rihter 10 hs ago

Bodies are piling up.

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Bethereguy 11 hs ago

Mimimimi

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communistdoggo49 12 hs ago

Makes sense. How many people go and seek help and how many already accept their fate at home. My dad is the latter and said he won't go to the hospital if he gets it, but he is taking the virus seriously and knows what to come if he gets it. Perhaps others feel the same and would prefer to die at home than go to the hospital and die and be stacked with the dead bodies

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mk_gecko 1 h ago

Apparently they are giving people on ventilators fentanyl to keep them unconscious. Weird. Now they're running out of fentanyl.

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workaccount1338 1 h ago

Something China something fentanyl something COVID joke

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hubal84 8 hs ago

Thats fucking depressing and wrong. Your dad is not a doctor to decide if he will die. why this sub is full of negative dystopian ideology

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eggobooster 6 hs ago

The hospital will give supportive oxygen, fluids, electrolytes. They may also give hydrochloriquine (Plaquenel) and help you with your secondary bacterial infection. Lots of blood work: d-dimer to check for hypercoagulation, ast/alt for liver function, WBC which have been low. If you go on the ventilator, you're going to have a baaad time. It happens really fast. If you do go to the hospital for this illness, make sure all your paperwork and shit is set up for your loved ones. They don't trach patient's who have been on a vent for a long time, too. Supposed to be after 20 days but the OR risk is too great with aerosolizing. You saw the shit about EMS not doing CPR on the way to the hospitals, that the patient needs to have a heartbeat before transport. It was already used for some but with all these policy changes, hospital might not be the most welcoming. Which fucking sucks. I wish they would send people home who are in comfort Care, like a morphine drip. I wonder if they do? "We are *trying our best* to have loved ones connected to video when they pass or are going to be ventilated." << My hospital chain.

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skylernordquist 7 hs ago

Why tf does a doctor have the right over him to decide when/how he dies?? If he would rather accept his fate, that is his decision alone.

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hubal84 7 hs ago

Oh really, since when is pro suicidal ideas are labeled “fate”

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joemato 7 hs ago

I think you already know the answer to that question. It’s a fucking sub based on collapse of society lol

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hubal84 7 hs ago

Collapse does not equal “celebrating death” and laughing at dead bodies around the globe. This sub is cheering death with smirk on the faces. The fuck is wrong with you

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joemato 7 hs ago

I agree with you, friend. Nothing is wrong with me. I think at the core of all of us we don’t want things to collapse. Cheering death with smirking faces could be a way of coping. Making light, easing tension within, acceptance, etc. The point I was trying to make is that when the subject matter is based on collapse, you’ll see people relishing in it. I understand if it came across as disagreeing with you.

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hubal84 6 hs ago

No problem buddy. There is a tendency in this sub to enjoy human suffering. I mean i am being downvoted for telling his/her dad to go to the doctor instead of committing suicide. Anyway good to see some sane people here.

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BenUFOs_Mum 12 hs ago

I don't think it's just Italy who are not reporting the full extent of the virus.

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working_class_shill 12 hs ago

I mean they're not going to go around door-to-door to count bodies in houses are they

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workaccount1338 1 h ago

Look at Katrina

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hereticvert 2 hs ago

Nah, they're just going to drive around with a cart yelling 'bring out yer dead!' every day. /s

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TenYearsTenDays 12 hs ago

Oh totally. It could not be any other way at this juncture. This is more to remind people that those nice, neat and not all that high numbers one sees are *estimates*. For example in Italy recently the flu official death toll was something like 2,000 for the season. However, estimates for the annual Italian death toll range from 8k-16k. http://archive.vn/V6KR9 https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/sorveglianza-mortalita-influenza

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PracticalLiterature1 12 hs ago

Pretty sure ours is as well..

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TenYearsTenDays 12 hs ago

"Ours" being any country in the world that is. At least Italy is admitting it.

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TenYearsTenDays 14 hs ago

Archive link: http://archive.vn/HtCnM

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TenYearsTenDays 14 hs ago

Let's see here, there's:

Faster than expected
Worse than expected
More than expected

and now

4 . Higher than reported

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driusan 6 hs ago

They're just dying faster than expected.

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pantsmeplz 7 hs ago

Except for item #4, if you look at news articles from the last decade about climate change those subjects also apply.

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Miss_Smokahontas 14 hs ago

Can I add More contagious than expected. Deadlier than expected.

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TenYearsTenDays 13 hs ago

Thank you, good additions. FWIW one expert has come out and said: "I think this is the most transmissible virus I've ever seen" says Dr. Ian Lipkin at around 21min in this podcast, http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-special-lipkin/ and he compares it to other airborne diseases like measles and smallpox. That's a *lot* "more contagious than expected" if he's even in the range with that statement.

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darkclowndown 9 hs ago

Which would be like the best news ever. The more contagious the less serve

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TenYearsTenDays 8 hs ago

Exactly, it really would be very good news indeed. I hope Dr. Lipkin recovers from his case of COVID and tells us more about his theory as to why he thinks it's so contagious.

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vocalfreesia 9 hs ago

Doesn't measles have an R-naught of 14 & Covid-19 an R-naught of just under 3? Am I misunderstanding a term here?

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TenYearsTenDays 9 hs ago

You are not misunderstanding per se. But maybe in a sense: r0 is not a fixed property. It can change based on various factors. Also, since this is a novel disease all of our initial estimates of properties like r0 are subject to reevaluation weeks or months down the line. What Dr. Lipkin is driving at is that it is possible we've severely underestimated the R0, that is not in the 2-3 range that is commonly thought but is rather much higher, possibly into the measles range. Is that going to be the case? Maybe, maybe not. His assertion is the farthest outlier I've ever seen from someone credible fwiw.

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vocalfreesia 8 hs ago

Ok, that makes sense. There definitely has been a shift from symptom to asymptomatic transmission which would increase it. That 60 person choir where 45 tested positive (suggesting singing / breathing and not only coughing etc spreads it.) Pretty scary to think if you just share some air space with someone who is infected but asymptomatic that could be enough to infect you. Maybe we should be using masks because of the potential asymptomatic numbers. If only there wasn't a shortage. Healthcare workers need them more.

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TenYearsTenDays 8 hs ago

> Maybe we should be using masks because of the potential asymptomatic numbers. If only there wasn't a shortage. Healthcare workers need them more. Yes, all professional grade PPE **needs** to go to HCWs now, true. However, we should all wear DIY cloth masks, like in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. http://archive.vn/dBfsO#selection-2413.104-2413.454 Cloth masks (and manufactured surgical masks for that matter) don't really protect you that much, but they DO go some ways towards protecting the environment. Check out this site, watch the videos for the science and then check out the DIY resources at the bottom. https://aiki.info/masks/

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Miss_Smokahontas 12 hs ago

Holy crap. Smallpox level would be extremely scary. I'm going to listen to this.

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TenYearsTenDays 12 hs ago

cool, I highly recommend that everyone listen to it. That guy pulled no punches, maybe because he IS sick from it so he coughs the whole time lol. He maybe thinks "I might die, might as well be totally honest and throw scientific reticence to the wind" or something. He's saying stuff that usually you need to get a scientist drunk to hear. It was quite a listen, especially the part where he admits that he and his team saw strong evidence that mass maksing works to quell community spread but then didn't publish said evidence in order to prevent mask supplies needed for frontline healthcare workers from being depleted. It was *wild*. I have been listening to all sorts of science podcasts for years now, and I've never heard anything quite like this one.

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TenYearsTenDays 14 hs ago

Archive link: http://archive.vn/HtCnM

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Wuhan-Pangolian-Stew 15 hs ago

https://youtu.be/8o_uXF9B4KI

Did hugging a Chinese girl from Wuhan help or Not? Does she still need hugs?

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awesomevsauce 17 hs ago

Can we stop posting articles that we can't read

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podkayne3000 Yesterday

“If you base any policy-making on these numbers, you should be very careful,” says Lucas Böttcher, a researcher at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has modeled fatality rates for Covid-19. “They can highly fluctuate during an outbreak.”

Nowhere in Italy has been harder hit than Bergamo, a city of about 120,000 people. In March 2019, 125 people died in the city. This March, 553 people died. Of these, 201 deaths were officially attributed to the virus. This leaves 352 further deaths for the period, far higher than normal.

In the wider Bergamo province, which comprises the city and more than 240 small towns and has a total population of 1.1 million, 2,060 people died in March from the virus, according to the official count. But some 4,500 more people died in the province in March than a year earlier, according to a new joint study by the local Eco di Bergamo newspaper and research firm InTwig that took data from 91 towns in the province.

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RudgerZ Yesterday

Got pay walled. I’d be interested to know though.

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onjayonjay Yesterday

WSJ Paywall SUCKS

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Mymoggievan Helpful Redditor Yesterday

Since there is no world-wide formula as to how to calculate positives, deaths, and super spreaders, I don't see any around this fiasco. I like statistics, hard numbers we can hang our hats on, this distresses me. I can't think of any way around this.

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frequenttimetraveler Yesterday

they also overcounted people who died with the disease not because of it. in any case their stats dont align well with the rest of the world (very skewed towards male and old) so probably not reliable. Probably not out of malice either, but overstretching

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Onewaytoskinthecat Yesterday

Given what was been disclosed so far, you can't trust anything that the CCP says.

Portions of Italy are simply overwhelmed, keeping perfect records is impossible.

The difference is that when this subsides, they will be a manner to get a more accurate toll in Italy. You won't be able to do that in China; they have disappeared people already simply for reporting on conditions.

You'll get suspicious indications, like pictures of all those urns, phone owners dropping off the face of the Earth. Most likely, eventually you'll hear stories from people about missing friends and relatives who seem to have vanished...if even that can get past the censors or the Great Fire Wall.

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Pfhreak - @Pfhreak Yesterday

There's a second order death toll too, because resources that would otherwise be available are being used to treat the pandemic.

That means many things that might not be lethal if treated quickly and with the best care, for example injuries from a car accident or a heart attack, are now entering a stressed health care system and likely have worse expected outcomes.

Then, all the folks who would normally be secondary concerns and receiving preventative care are now most likely not receiving that care. It's less likely that these develop into death, but could easily turn into serious health complications.

It's important to remember that it's not just covid-19 we're dealing with. It's covid-19 plus all the stuff we'd normally be taking care of. We'll be unwinding this ball of yarn for a long time after addressing the virus itself.

fxj - @fxj 18 hs ago

The Eu is monitoring mortality in europe at this website:

http://www.euromomo.eu/

It goes back several years and you can clearly see the last influenza pandemics (2017). It also show the mortality for each member country and of course italy. At the moment there is no increase in mortality there.

They write on their website:

Note concerning COVID-19 related mortality as part of the all-cause mortality figures reported by EuroMOMO

Over the past few days, the EuroMOMO hub has received many questions about the weekly all-cause mortality data and the possible contribution of any COVID-19 related mortality. Some wonder why no increased mortality is observed in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19 affected countries.

The answer is that increased mortality that may occur primarily at subnational level or within smaller focal areas, and/or concentrated within smaller age groups, may not be detectable at the national level, even more so not in the pooled analysis at European level, given the large total population denominator. Furthermore, there is always a few weeks of delay in death registration and reporting. Hence, the EuroMOMO mortality figures for the most recent weeks must be interpreted with some caution.

Therefore, although increased mortality may not be immediately observable in the EuroMOMO figures, this does not mean that increased mortality does not occur in some areas or in some age groups, including mortality related to COVID-19.

freyir - @freyir Yesterday

Even if they can't test everyone who dies for Covid-19, I'm sure Italy is recording the total number of deaths. It should be possible to determine how much the total death rate increased each week or month relative to the average death rate over the past few years.

EDIT: I found a non-paywall version of the article on MSN and that's essentially what they're reporting. "Nowhere in Italy has been harder hit than Bergamo, a city of about 120,000 people. In March 2019, 125 people died in the city. This March, 553 people died."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/italys-coronavirus-deat...

flocial - @flocial Yesterday

http://archive.is/UWxPP

rubber_duck - @rubber_duck Yesterday

One thing I saw in a news report here is a doctor checking in on the status in Italy - she said that they were not doing autopsies - patient was on a respirator and had symptoms or was confirmed - cause of death corona. So I'm not sure about the reasoning with testing - but I could be wrong.

riffraff - @riffraff Yesterday

I cannot read this article ATM, but there was another one a couple days ago on an Italian newspaper, in English, which gets the same conclusion by looking directly at the number of deaths in the period compared with last year. The number seems to be a much better proxy of the gravity of the epidemic than the reported infected.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.corriere.it/politica/20_mar...

ImpressiveWebs - @ImpressiveWebs Yesterday

I haven’t read the article due to the paywall, but it’s also worth considering the following quote from the Telegraph on March 23, which quotes Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health:

> “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

> “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

So while it may be true that many deaths have not been reported, it’s also true that many deaths are misreported.

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

guscost - @guscost Yesterday

Take on the one hand these untested victims, and on the other the folks who tested positive but did not die of pneumonia or respiratory distress. Right now it’s awfully hard to guess whether the true “death toll” (to the extent that such a vague thing can even be defined) is more or less than the reported number. But folks will try to estimate this retroactively, far into the future.

olliej - @olliej Yesterday

It seems like this could apply to pretty much every effected country.

We know the US has drastically under tested which again results in under reporting.

nickpinkston - @nickpinkston Yesterday

Here's the full text (coming in multiple comments because of size limit):

MILAN—In the town of Coccaglio, an hour’s drive east of here, the local nursing home lost over a third of its residents in March. None of the 24 people who died there were tested for the new coronavirus. Nor were the 38 people who died in another nursing home in the nearby town of Lodi.

These aren’t isolated incidents. Italy’s official death toll from the virus stands at 13,155, the most of any country in the world. But that number tells only part of the story because many people who die from the virus don’t make it to the hospital and are never tested.

In the areas worst hit by the pandemic, Italy is undercounting thousands of deaths caused by the virus, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows, indicating that the pandemic’s human toll may end up being much greater, and infections far more widespread, than official data indicate.

Italy’s hidden death toll shows what could lie in store for the worst-hit areas of the U.S., Europe and many other countries in the weeks ahead if the coronavirus is not tamed fast. The burden that the pandemic puts on health-care systems can cause so many deaths that it is hard to gauge the full human cost.

As stretched and sometimes overwhelmed hospitals fight to save their patients, many other people die unseen and uncounted, including elderly people in out-of-the-way locations. In addition, the health-care crisis can lead to a surge of deaths from other causes that would normally be treatable.

lwelrkwnnzsd - @lwelrkwnnzsd Yesterday

no it's not - STFU YOU FUCKING LIBERALS!

Show all comments on Hackernews

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InvertedDick 1 h ago

This is some really cool stuff. Glad to see awesome things built with Rust!

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coderbot16 2 hs ago

This project looks great! One thing that I would like to do is render 3D stuff with something like wgpu and then embed that viewport into an iced GUI. How feasible would this kind of thing be?

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hecrj iced 52 mins ago

This is still not possible but the seeds are planted! We are tracking this particular use case and similar ones in [this issue](https://github.com/hecrj/iced/issues/32). Feel free to join the discussion.

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vlmutolo 4 hs ago

Pane grid looks incredible. I can see so many uses for it. Applications like text editors can really benefit from the easy-to-manipulate sections.

Also, the default styling you use is really nice. It’s tough for cross-platform apps to look nice; you’ll always be competing with the native theme. But Iced really does a good job.

Can Ice be used without any of {Vulkan, Metal, Direct X 12}? Eg OpenGL?

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hecrj iced 3 hs ago

Thanks for the kind words! >Can Ice be used without any of {Vulkan, Metal, Direct X 12}? Eg OpenGL? Not yet! [But `wgpu` may get OpenGL support soon!](https://github.com/gfx-rs/wgpu/issues/450) Also, I think it may be interesting to play with more mature/higher-level backends (like Skia, Cairo, or [`piet`](https://github.com/linebender/piet)) and offer a different renderer as an alternative while [`iced_wgpu`](https://github.com/hecrj/iced/tree/master/wgpu) evolves.

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jrhurst 5 hs ago

What is the accessibility story with it? Will OS screen readers work well with it? What about the wasm version?

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hecrj iced 3 hs ago

>What is the accessibility story with it? Will OS screen readers work well with it? As of now, it's uncharted territory. I shared some of my thoughts on [the previous release thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/rust/comments/e1jckj/iced_a_crossplatform_gui_library_new_release/f8q1jlt/?context=8&depth=9). >What about the wasm version? [`iced_web`](https://github.com/hecrj/iced/tree/master/web) targets the DOM directly thanks to [`dodrio`](https://github.com/fitzgen/dodrio). I believe it should be possible to use the built-in accessibility features of the Web.

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lukematthewsutton 5 hs ago

I'm looking at the changelog and this is a lot! Really impressive stuff.

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Nazariglez 6 hs ago

Awesome! This is getting better each release. Nice work!

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Nevizonah 7 hs ago

That one time GitHub was down

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U007D 7 hs ago

I've played with this a bit on all three major platforms--it's got a nice, API--it's been really great!

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Average_Manners 3 hs ago

Redox, Linux, and Mac?

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smrkn 7 hs ago

Had a quick look at the examples and can’t wait to try out some of the new features 😊

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LeCyberDucky 8 hs ago

Hah, nice! I just started a project yesterday where I'm using this. Keep up the great work :)

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lebogglez 8 hs ago

Congrats on the release, looks interesting!

Do you mind adding a screenshot to each example application? I think it would be helpful so that people don't need to check the code out and compile each example just to take a look at the result.

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hecrj iced 7 hs ago

[Every example](https://github.com/hecrj/iced/tree/0.1/examples) has a `README` with a GIF, [like this one](https://github.com/hecrj/iced/tree/0.1/examples/pane_grid). I didn't want to bloat the announcement so I didn't include the GIFs there, but it does link to these readmes.

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Average_Manners 4 hs ago

Dang this is so blasted beautiful.

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lebogglez 7 hs ago

My bad! I didn't see an image file in the directory, so I didn't expect an image in the readme. Didn't expect HTML with an external link! I'll take a look, thanks

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LeCyberDucky 7 hs ago

I think the directories of the examples do contain illustrations of what they do. So while you have to open the directories, you don't need to compile and run the examples.

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bruce3434 9 hs ago

What are the external dependencies on Linux?

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hecrj iced 8 hs ago

[Here is the current result of `ldd` for the `counter` example](https://gist.github.com/hecrj/2323a170131587748581e74fdfb1ff00). Keep in mind we haven't focused on reducing external dependencies yet! I believe most of these are being pulled from the text pipeline in [`iced_wgpu`](https://github.com/hecrj/iced/tree/master/wgpu) ([`font-kit`](https://github.com/servo/font-kit) specifically). This is [a pipeline that definitely needs improvement!](https://github.com/hecrj/iced/issues/33)

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Joshy54100 9 hs ago

As an Elm user, I can definitely see the influence. Excited to try this soon!

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yesyoufoundme 9 hs ago

Congrats to the devs. I was interested when it was first announced but I needed a few features (Events for shortcuts, and styling, to name a couple) that seemed missing or immature. Based on the examples, it looks like I need to give this a try.

Really fast pace guys, kudos!

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fungosbauux 41 mins ago

Exactly the same here, this progress is awesome, if this continues iced will rapidly take the lead on gui. I'll give it another shot now that styling evolved, hopefully it is easy to tweak.

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