Token Daily

The models began as (probably) worst case scenarios based on educated guesses with very little basis to make an educated guess from. Over time, with growing experience and increasing knowledge, the models are refined based on constantly updating information. Projected death tolls could wildly swing upward if whatever factors are working in our favor stop being the way they currently are (such as the amount of people social distancing decreases significantly).

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unRealityEngineer 56 mins ago

In short, the panic is wearing off.

Reality is returning.

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ME24601 1 h ago

The LOGICAL Question is WHY?

Probably because people are maintaining social distance and shelter in place orders.

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PCisLame 1 h ago

So, have you people finally gotten past blaming the Orange Man Bad for this? Logical **Q**

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peter-doubt 1 h ago

OP doesn't know the difference between death toll and death rate.

Death tolls don't go down.

(Also, not the headline)

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id10t_you 1 h ago

Perhaps because people are largely following shelter in place orders?

No? Surely the more complex, conspiracy laden theories are the answer? FOH shitheel.

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PCisLame 1 h ago

THE GREAT AWAKENING

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PCisLame 1 h ago

THE GREAT AWAKENING

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duallyford 20 mins ago

You need to lay off the Q

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kingleir306 2 hs ago

Because they just dying at home?

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zucker42 Left Libertarian 2 hs ago

The study assumes social distancing, and assumes the illness will follow a Gaussian error function.

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PolicyWonka 2 hs ago

Yes. It assumes social distancing and business closures extend until August.

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Teary_Oberon Minarchist 4 hs ago

They'd better be careful. If they keep revising their models down over and over again, eventually we'll get into "bad flu season" territory. And then the doomsday prophets are going to end up looking stupid.

I mean honestly it's not even that far away now - the 2017-18 flue season killed 60,000+ people.

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Naptownfellow hippy who enjoys thoughtful debate 1 h ago

Lol. It’s crazy you’re calling anyone out about revising their models when you said we would have over 1000 deaths. Then you went back and changed your prediction to less than 10,000 deaths and then you edited them again. We are past 12,000 what is your prediction now ?

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3720-To-One Negative externalities exist 3 hs ago

Holy shit! It’s almost as if after taking pro-active measures to enforce social distancing and halt the spread of the disease, the projected death count drops... Who would have known?

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SamanthaLoridelon 4 hs ago

Whatever they can say to keep people out working to keep the rich, rich. Sick of all this fake news.

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irishgm1002 5 hs ago

Anybody else think the numbers were high at first so trump can boast and say that it is because of him?

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thiscouldbemassive 5 hs ago

The problem is that as soon as they open schools and businesses, there will be a second wave of illness. What we need is a vaccine. We won't reach a true peak until we have one. Or everyone gets the disease and all who are going to die have died -- which is the worst case scenerio.

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klarno shitlib 4 hs ago

The worst case scenario was that the virus swamps the medical system everywhere all at once in the middle of flu season, leading to deaths of many who otherwise could have been saved.

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thiscouldbemassive 4 hs ago

Yes, which is what will happen if people go back to work and school. Eventually the virus will run out of hosts, but in the mean time we'll be swamped.

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klarno shitlib 4 hs ago

Flu season is over. There are more medical resources to spare. Data are showing that this virus isn’t as virulent in warmer, more humid weather.

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thiscouldbemassive 4 hs ago

And it will explode again come fall.

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so_af 4 hs ago

Don't worry, you'll be free to continue to live your life like a coward

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dangerweiner69 6 hs ago

Damn, this will continue until August? I honestly don't know how realistic that is - personally I would be incredibly out of shape by then if the stay at home order is still ongoing...

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syzygyperigee 6 hs ago

Yup. Numbers from China are dubious at best. But seems it started there in December/January and they are only now saying they’re over it (but stay home ... so not really yet). A full lockdown till August is probably unlikely. But I’d say there will be regions in lockdown through June, July and even August.

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dangerweiner69 6 hs ago

The states in lockdown for that long will need to waive rent and mortgage payments unless they want a massive homeless crisis. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 20-30%, at a minimum that would be hundreds of thousands of people facing eviction/foreclosure.

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syzygyperigee 5 hs ago

Again, a full lockdown for that long is unlikely. And yes - if it proves necessary anywhere then it will be extraordinarily aweful. States, or counties, will likely be faced with a trade off of whether they try to get a faltering economy started and accept thousands of deaths, vs poverty and saving lives. While knowing that reviving the economy may not work so you end up with widespread poverty and deaths. Tough decisions for sure

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GlobalTravelR 6 hs ago

It's also doesn't factor in Red State Governors acting like morons.

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buscoamigos 5 hs ago

It does factor in what steps states are taking to flatten the curve

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FrenchLlamas 6 hs ago

Here's hoping this is accurate. More evidence that containment and social distancing is very important.

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Siggycakes 6 hs ago

This model is being shit on by people who think it's too forgiving and too pessimistic. It's hilarious.

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nooneneededtoknow 5 hs ago

People calling out the assumptions made because they don't align with what the US is currently doing is constructive incite - its not shitting on the model, its pointing out discrepancies because nothing is perfect.

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PolicyWonka 6 hs ago

But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.

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PolicyWonka 6 hs ago

But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.

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part-three 6 hs ago

I'm not sure we can survive a shut-down until August. Besides the question of who is going to produce and deliver the food, there's also the question of who will be able to afford it? Is the gov just going to keep printing money and giving it away? And if so, what will be the repercussions of that?

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AnarchistBorganism Anarcho-communist 4 hs ago

If rent and mortgage payments are suspended, and the government implements taxes to implement a UBI, then it's just a matter of making sure that payments cover basic living expenses. If it's fueled by debt, then it's basically just printing money and it will result in inflation, or possibly just decreased deflation; it's hard to say.

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Mighty_L_LORT 6 hs ago

Model aporoved by business leaders and billionaire shareholders...

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Lo-Kel 6 hs ago

Maybe, in round one, of who knows how many rounds. 18 months eta till a vaccine ( at least). I'm not looking forward to autumn...then next spring...

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fordman84 6 hs ago

Based on the numbers they are saying, I think they are basing it on this site:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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GiantPandammonia 6 hs ago

Look at that site's predictions from Louisiana, and then look up the deaths in new Orleans and decide if you think that model seems valid.

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fordman84 6 hs ago

It's a forecast, not a crystal ball. See the shaded region for deaths, that is what is possible based on variables.

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Belikedis 6 hs ago

Well seeing as a good amount of us have stayed home for 1-3 weeks. It can’t do anything but help our odds.

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Viewfromthe31stfloor Frequent Contributor 6 hs ago

4 weeks here in NYC. Started before the shutdown orders after a hospital started cancelling non-essential appointments. A significant number of people have done the same starting with working from home.

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the_retrosaur 6 hs ago

model Adjusted for better headline

“And if we connect the gaps in a F you can make into into a P, see? Instant Pass”

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Ghost_vaginas 6 hs ago

If this is true, I think maybe it would be a better idea to keep it quiet so people don’t start trying to go back to life as normal too soon

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xRelwolf 6 hs ago

This sub is great at keeping it all doom and gloom

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jeffhirod 6 hs ago

Slippery slope, between giving folk hope (people do need this) this will end soon, and Trump, business leaders, and others frustrated being shutdown, pushing to get back to normal.

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Byzantium42 2 hs ago

I said from the beginning closing parks will be counter productive. It won't stop anyone from going outside, but instead of in a large park, they will be on sidewalks, bumping into each other.

There is a park near me, it's really more of a trail, but it has a playground at 1 end. I walk my dogs down there almost every day. It has a wooded area they like to play in, there's a creek.. There are usually 2 or 3 other people in the park, maybe on a really nice day 5 or 6. Now that park is closed and I have to walk into ditches and streets to avoid all the people on the sidewalks while waking my dogs.

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chicago_bigot 3 hs ago

Ivory tower limousine liberals: let them crowd in parks!!

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travuloso 3 hs ago

If we keep the parks open we're going to have to close the playgrounds, cook areas, any narrow trails and make sure people don't congregate. I think this means a bunch of rules and a bunch of cops to enforce them.

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Mikazukinoyaiba 5 hs ago

Maybe you haven't been to the parks?

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Benefits_Lapsed 5 hs ago

I have been and never have a problem keeping my distance, but again it's not about doing nothing it's about closing the parks being a worse solution than keeping them open and there are measures that can be taken to regulate number of people in parks at one time and help people spread out.

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skoolhausrock 3 hs ago

YOU haven't had problems keeping your distance. But what about all the moron hoosiers who are out in gigantic groups. They have to close the parks because people are stupid.

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Mikazukinoyaiba 5 hs ago

This sounds a lot like the philosophy tried before of letting bars and restaurants stay open and trust that people will just distance themselves. Mr. Parsons

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StalkerFishy Lafayette Square 4 hs ago

It's much easier to social distance yourself at a park than at a restaurant.

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ayending1 4 hs ago

Tons of restaurants would argue they can help to maintain social distance at their places so they can stay open.

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StalkerFishy Lafayette Square 3 hs ago

Because if they stay open they make money. I can't blame them. But unfortunately it isn't practical, whereas keeping parks open while social distancing is.

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autosoap 2 hs ago

I spend a lot of time in TGP and I don’t have any problem keeping my distance from others and I don’t see many people congregating either. Closing parks sort of makes sense in queeny or creve couer since they’re mostly paths but in city parks that are fields, it doesn’t make sense and is almost unenforceable.

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StalkerFishy Lafayette Square 1 h ago

Definitely. I'm in Lafayette Park daily and it's incredibly easy to avoid people even though there are dozens there.

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Benefits_Lapsed 6 hs ago

I recently read that St. Louis City officials had warned that city parks could follow suit with the county if people didn't behave. I think this article is therefore very relevant and makes some strong arguments that should be considered by all local governments. I found this quote interesting:

The outdoors and sunshine are such strong factors in fighting viral infections that a 2009 study of the extraordinary success of outdoor hospitals during the 1918 influenza epidemic suggested that during the next pandemic (I guess this one!) we should encourage “the public to spend as much time outdoors as possible,” as a public-health measure.

The author also doesn't argue for a "do nothing" approach, rather there are all sorts of common sense measures we can take to keep the parks open while making it easier for everyone to practice social distancing.

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rickscarf Kirkwood 5 hs ago

Some people don't care to follow social distancing rules. This is why we can't have nice things

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Benefits_Lapsed 5 hs ago

Well if they truly don't care then it makes little difference whether they violate the rules in a park or at a home. The article argues for various reasons it's better in a park than an apartment or home. Not only is the latter more likely to spread the virus but all it does is move the violations from public view. I think the vast majority do care though, and in some cases might just need some assistance from officials with things like one way paths, etc.

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Mikazukinoyaiba 5 hs ago

>Well if they truly don't care then it makes little difference whether they violate the rules in a park or at a home. How does this make sense to you. If they violate at home, that cluster is at least smaller.

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Benefits_Lapsed 5 hs ago

I don't see why it would be. The scenario is that some bad actors don't care about social distancing so they meet up with friends at the park. If park is closed, they can meet at their house instead.

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Mikazukinoyaiba 5 hs ago

It's not about the group's that gather together but about the groups that mingle with others due to high density of said groups.

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Benefits_Lapsed 5 hs ago

That's where other measures can help, limit amount of people in park, regulate the flow, basic stuff. Closing the park is an extremely drastic solution (but again, it's not really a solution), sort of using a sledgehammer rather than a scalpel.

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Theogwyn 3 hs ago

Who decides who gets to go to the park? For how long? On what days? That is a lot to regulate. Also the parks that are closed still allow people to take walks and be on the trails from what I am reading. If people would not have abused the park to ignore social distancing etc then they would still be open. They can't spend the time and resources to regulate the area so because a lot of people ruined it they ruined it for people who were being good and responsible with the parks. Edit: I hate this as much as everyone else too but if we don't participate the longer it is going to last and more stuff is going to be taken away and I for one want to have some kind of summer rather than being stuck in my house/yard.

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UsedToBsmart 2 hs ago

What closed parks have you heard are allowing people on the trails? I’ve not experienced that, the parks are me are completely gated.

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Theogwyn 1 h ago

https://www.ksdk.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-st-louis-county-parks-close-friday/63-4c464d0a-b777-4b0a-953f-3b68dadb20a5 "People can still go for walks in city parks, but social distancing must be maintained."

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ayending1 6 hs ago

All the alternatives suggested by the author are feasible, yet still at a cost. Simply closing the parks is always the easiest option for the government. It's hard to maintain social distance in forest park if thousands of people think it's a good idea to work out there today.

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IIWIIM8 4 mins ago

Respiratory Pathogen Emission Dynamics Video and description (RT 1:23)

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SeriousTinker 6 days ago

Although such social distancing strategies are critical in the current time of pandemic, it may seem surprising that the current understanding of the routes of host-to-host transmission in respiratory infectious diseases are predicated on a model of disease transmission developed in the 1930s that, by modern standards, seems overly simplified. Implementing public health recommendations based on these older models may limit the effectiveness of the proposed interventions....

Given various combinations of an individual patient’s physiology and environmental conditions, such as humidity and temperature, the gas cloud and its payload of pathogen-bearing droplets of all sizes can travel 23 to 27 feet (7-8 m).

This is published in JAMA; have the WHO found differently?

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bobblehead230 6 days ago

I can supply plenty of turbulent gas clouds

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DeadlyKitt4 Moderator 6 days ago

You should contribute only high-quality information. We require that users submit reliable, fact-based information to the subreddit and provide an English translation for an article in the comments if necessary. There are many places online to discuss conspiracies and speculate. We ask you not to do so here. (More Information)

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NotMyPact 6 days ago

These new findings, along with the asymptomatic nature of the coronavirus (1) and its ability to remain active on surfaces (2), could be an explanation for its widespread infection

Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions

Potential implications for reducing transmission of COVID-19

(...)

The dichotomy of large vs small droplets remains at the core of the classification systems of routes of respiratory disease transmission adopted by the World Health Organization and other agencies, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These classification systems employ various arbitrary droplet diameter cutoffs, from 5 to 10 μm, to categorize host-to-host transmission as droplets or aerosol routes.1 Such dichotomies continue to underly current risk management, major recommendations, and allocation of resources for response management associated with infection control, including for COVID-19. ¨Even when maximum containment policies were enforced, the rapid international spread of COVID-19 suggests that using arbitrary droplet size cutoffs may not accurately reflect what actually occurs with respiratory emissions, possibly contributing to the ineffectiveness of some procedures used to limit the spread of respiratory disease.

(...)

A 2020 report from China demonstrated that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus particles could be found in the ventilation systems in hospital rooms of patients with COVID-19

(...)

The protective efficacy of N95 masks depends on their ability to filter incoming air from aerosolized droplet nuclei. However, these masks are only designed for a certain range of environmental and local conditions and a limited duration of usage. Mask efficacy as source control depends on the ability of the mask to trap or alter the high-momentum gas cloud emission with its pathogenic payload. Peak exhalation speeds can reach up to 33 to 100 feet per second (10-30 m/s), creating a cloud that can span approximately 23 to 27 feet (7-8 m). Protective and source control masks, as well as other protective equipment, should have the ability to repeatedly withstand the kind of high-momentum multiphase turbulent gas cloud that may be ejected during a sneeze or a cough and the exposure from them. Currently used surgical and N95 masks are not tested for these potential characteristics of respiratory emissions

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852 (JAMA)

Research published by

Lydia Bourouiba is a physical applied mathematician concentrating on geophysical problems of hydrodynamic turbulence and on the mathematical modeling of population dynamics and disease transmission

http://imes.mit.edu/people/faculty/bourouiba-lydia/

Case closed for me, so far for open debate and genuine discussion on Reddit #fail

FOOTNOTES

(1) https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

(2) https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

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flavormonkey 1 week ago

Brilliant

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sjgokou 1 week ago

Who would of thought a sneeze could travel so far. 😷

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lisaseileise 1 week ago

mucosalivary droplets following short-range semiballistic emission trajectories

Sounds like a sufficiently metal line up. Now, we‘ll have to wait a few months for that gig.

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pbjis2op4me 1 week ago

But oh no, don’t you see it rides on water and is therefore water droplet only. Haha, idiots claiming it is aerosolized. I am so smart because I only use info from the WHO and CCP. It can’t stay in the air because it’s not airborne. Therefore I am right.

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Striking_Eggplant 1 week ago

Tldr when people sneez it goes about 27 feet, as such 6 feet of social distancing isn't even close to the right number for maximum effect.

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retro_slouch 1 week ago

Indeed, but we also need to find a sweetspot of "tolerable for at least 4 months" and effectiveness.

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qabadai 1 week ago

It would be interesting to consider directionality in this analysis. A sneeze going 7-8m forward is different than it going 7-8m in all directions. They do hypothesize that indoor climate control can have a big impact though, which makes sense.

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billg1 1 week ago

I think there’s little point or utility to this article. It just names areas of future study for fluid dynamicists. The fact that a cough or sneeze can go farther than 6 feet shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who thinks about respiratory diseases.

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SeriousPuppet 1 week ago

It's a beginning point in understand the means of travel of viruses. No one is thinking seriously about actually containing individual sneeze output. If we do that we can, in theory, stop the virus. A though experiment - let's say every time someone coughed/sneezed they put a big plastic bag around their nose/mouth and all of the output/cloud was captured in that bag, and that bag was tied up and thrown away; in theory, you would remove the virus from the environment (from this transmission method); the droplets would not land on surfaces (fomites); it would not hang in the air waiting for someone else to breathe in. This would greatly reduce transmission. Wearing masks help a bit, but obviously aren't full proof. What comes out when we sneeze is "mucosalivary droplets" -- ie it is basically mucus and saliva, but in "aersolized" and "dropletized" form. We would never accept ingesting a stranger's mucus or saliva, and health workers treat those fluids very carefully (when taking samples for testing, just as they would treat urine, sperm, etc); yet sick people walk right into doctor's offices and ER waiting rooms and can expel their mucus and saliva right into the air, and this is accepted because it's just always how its been. We need to start thinking differently about this. I have inventions that could solve for this but I doubt I have the resources to bring them to fruition.

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this_kitten_i_knew 1 week ago

agreed, it's simply a computer generated predictive model. there needs to be way more modeling done in order for this to change respiratory protection in some meaningful way

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KLP097 1 week ago

I thought it was important to learn that many masks have not been tested for high speed gas clouds. Means I'm going to be using the full face shield going forward.

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RPDC01 1 week ago

Welp, that 7-8m photo is definitely nightmare fuel, and the video just made it worse. The cloud just hangs in the air at around 20ft.

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[deleted] 1 week ago

[removed]

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TrueOrleans 1 week ago

The videos are slowed down. The first 2 are less than a half a second in real time. The last one is 6 seconds. Still not incredible news but don’t get the impression that such a high concentration of exhaled air isn’t prone to diffusion like any other substance.

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mrandish 1 week ago

> nightmare fuel Yep, not showing this to my already-germophobic wife. Since there are indications the density of viral load matters, I wonder what the falloff rate is at the edges and over time. IIRC a study posted last week had density measurements taken in an actual hospital environment (in Nebraska I think). Another study, also posted last week I think, indicated that not all detectable CV19 is necessarily infectable CV19. More distance or more protection are always better but the dynamics are complex and we need more info to balance probability and practicality. I'd love to see this expanded into a practical study in environments like hospitals, offices and stores showing the incidence of particles sufficient to cause infection as a falloff per square of the distance and time. The high frequency and viral loads found in hospital ERs and ICUs dictate maximum precaution. However, if doubling social distancing from 6 feet to 12 feet in a retail store environment only decreases the probability of actual infection slightly, it may not be worth it as it would make it impossible to navigate a typical grocery store. Yesterday I was getting groceries for an elderly family member and everyone at the grocery was respectfully navigating around in virtual six-foot bubbles and it was already at the edge of practicality. I started pondering, "If almost all the at-risk people and the currently symptomatic people are staying home (and most seem to be, viral social media reports aside), then the odds of being infected during the three seconds two people are passing in a supermarket aisle is probably pretty darn low."

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Awade32 1 week ago

Quick question, I see all of this viral load talk. How could anyone possibly know what someone’s initial viral load was at the time of infection? Can you trace back to see that somehow? To me it seems more likely that when viral load is discussed, it is speaking of the idea that if someone currently has a high viral load, that is bad, which seems obvious. I would love to know the answer to this, and I know you might not know but I thought I would ask since you mentioned it. Thanks!

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mrandish 1 week ago

There was a German study where they swabbed patients every day and tracked viral load but I can't find the link. Maybe someone else can link it. Here's [a CDC study](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm) on incidence of CV19 infectious transmission. I also remember seeing a Korean study of households where they tracked the likelihood of infection, which I also can't find (too many studies, not enough brain). From some study I read, the notion stuck in my brain that the chances of getting CV19 from someone you live or work with is dramatically higher than getting it from someone you pass on the street or in a store, which makes sense but I continue to see people act the opposite way.

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StorkReturns 1 week ago

[German study](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1).

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Positive-Vibes-2-All 1 week ago

Canadian health officials state that most severe cases in China happened among family members due to close contact

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Slapbox 1 week ago

You can't know, but you can know a person surrounded by 6 symptomatic people (like healthcare workers are) are going to be exposed to more of the virus than someone who was exposed during a checkout at the grocery store with an asymptomatic spreader.

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Awade32 1 week ago

I get that, but I keep seeing that studies say the higher the initial viral load, the worse the outcome or something similar. Are they following healthcare workers that they know were highly exposed? It seems that they wouldn’t have enough data to look at deaths and then figure out if they got it from touching a key pad or if someone on deaths door coughed straight down their throat.

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SAKUJ0 1 week ago

Prof. Drosten speculated that severe cases might result from deep inhalation of viral load and skipping the "mild phase". He was discussing the hypothesis that the body needs some time to build anti bodies, that could fight the lung stage of CV19. Virus replicates exponentially in the body. I am no epidemiologist. However, it would seem intuitive that the virus gets a head start on its exponential growth curve. Anti body production would have to play catch up in this race condition. Please do not quote me on any of this. But I too have heard what you are inquiring and this is how I made sense of it. It's probably false to think of vaccines that way. **Edit** /u/Hai_Wayland is [confirming the hypothesis that i seem to recall and cites a study](https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fr70j1/turbulent_gas_clouds_and_respiratory_pathogen/fluoqkd/) below.

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Positive-Vibes-2-All 1 week ago

Canadian health officials state that most severe cases in China happened among family members due to close contact

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Hal_Wayland 1 week ago

They measure the viral load in the swabs taken during tests. Viral load is measured on a logarithmic scale, so "high" viral load means orders of magnitude more than "low" viral load. The idea is that if there's more in your nose or in your throat, the initial amount of virus that gets into your lungs is higher, sort of "surprising" the immune system which doesn't get enough time to react to it. That's why higher initial viral load could result in higher likelihood of a severe case. EDIT: Here's the study - "Viral dynamics in mild and severe cases of COVID-19" [https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext)

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FC37 1 week ago

That's still not fully proven, though. Figure B is missing early onset data for nearly every severe case. It's plausible that severe cases and mild cases had a similar initial dose, but that mild cases were able to mount an effective immune response while severe cases weren't. Not all progression in the study showed improvement. A couple of mild cases showed growing viral loads at different stages before reverting back to smaller loads. And there's less of a clear trend towards clearance in the severe population: more flat days at the start. When you consider that age is a highly correlated variable, there's very likely more to this than is presented here.

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Slapbox 1 week ago

I'm pretty confident they are not following healthcare workers, but I don't know what they are doing.

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Positive-Vibes-2-All 1 week ago

>Canadian health officials state that most severe cases in China happened among family members due to close contact

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FC37 1 week ago

They're gonna need to cite some data.

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onlymildlyanxious 1 week ago

I would say for a healthcare worker, hospitals are (or will be) so swamped they are nearly guaranteed exposure. Put yourself in the shoes of a nurse in NYC, out of PPE, running from patient to patient all day for dozens of patients, managing and handling god knows how many bodily fluids on literally everything, sheets, IV lines, respirometers, etc. I imagine healthcare workers know exactly what they're getting into, and they have been going in willingly or some are choosing to stay home. Not all have the privilege to speak up without consequences and I've read so many stories about docs being fired for it. It's not a good system. 😞

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oapster79 1 week ago

Social distancing of six feet may not be enough according to a study at MIT. Especially for Health Care workers.

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paxromana96 1 week ago

But as long as it keeps the transmission rate below 1.0, it's enough!

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ThereAll_Is_Aching 1 week ago

MIT analysis of respiratory pathogen emissions highlights that CDC's 6 foot social distancing rule is based on an outdated model of transmission, suggest new model & need for better masks

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bagbroch 1 week ago

I was walking the other day and realized I could strongly smell the lady’s cigarette from half a block and across the street. If there’s sickness in the exhalation, that shit reached me. 6 foot ain’t shit to air. Also, pretty sure today is day 1 of me existing after having covid. First day in 2 weeks it doesn’t feel like there’s a rubber band around my heart or little dudes with vacuum hoses scraping my throat and throwing it all into my lungs. Pretty excited about this! Edit: any idea where to get either a covid test or antibody test in Los Angeles? I’d like to go get a temporary job somewhere...

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cybertoad1 1 week ago

Just because you could smell tobacco smoke from 100 feet away does NOT mean viral particles travel 100 feet. Similarly, one can smell wildfire smoke from fires hundreds of miles away. That doesn't mean that someone 100 miles downwind of NYC or Wuhan is going to catch Covid by walking out on their back patio and taking a breath of outdoor air.

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[deleted] 1 week ago

[deleted]

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converter-bot 1 week ago

100 miles is 160.93 km

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SeriousPuppet 1 week ago

True. But the video, if I'm viewing it correctly, does show that the expelled "cloud" can travel upwards of 26 ft, which is much farther than I've heard anyone talk about, and wayyy farther than the 6 ft recommended by CDC, WHO, etc.

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reddit_wisd0m 1 week ago

True however you also have to consider that droplets, where a virus can remain infectious, need to have a certain size. If they are too small, they dry out (vaporise) quickly and destroy the virus. However, only the small droplets reach the longest distance, since the can float the longest in the air. The larger droplets, where the virus can survive the longest, are dropping much quicker to the ground, since the can't float that the long in the air. This explanation is based on the German Virologist Prof. Drosten.

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PrimalTreasures 1 week ago

Since, as you stated, virus survives longest in droplets reaching the ground, isn’t it likely we can carry the virus on our footwear? Should we don gloves to remove our shoes? Not asking a silly question but honestly wondering.

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1002003004005006007 1 week ago

Yes, it is definitely possible. I think the best practice is to keep your home sterile by not wearing outdoors shoes in your house, and by washing your hands after touching shoes you wore outside in the past few days. If you’re going to stores, designate one pair of shoes and keep them far as possible away from the rest of your living space.

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reddit_wisd0m 1 week ago

Yes, that's a very good practice in general. (my area has unfortunately a lot of dog shit on sidewalks. So there is a good chance, I get small but significant amount of feces on my shoes as well.) It also good practice to use the same clothes (e.g. Jacket and trousers) for grocery shopping but for nothing else and keep them separate from all the other clothes.

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catch_fire 1 week ago

Out of curiosity: Are you German or has the NDR podcast of Drosten such a wide reach nowadays?

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reddit_wisd0m 1 week ago

My German is good enough to understand those podcasts, which are usually very informative. and they also come with a script, which helps to translate difficult/unusual words/expressions.

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SeriousPuppet 1 week ago

I mean, just watch the video. There clearly is a cloud that reaches 26 ft. So regardless of the size, the virus is traveling that far. You have to accept it - visual proof.

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reddit_wisd0m 1 week ago

I didn't want to disprove anything here. I just wanted to make you aware that there has to be an additional dimension to be considered here. And there might be more, which we are both not aware of. So, just because this "cloud" travels far, doesn't imply that the infectiousness of a virus carried within that cloud remains the same over time. Hence, it's not wise to jump too quickly to conclusion here. On the other hand, it can't hurt to take proper precautions.

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SeriousPuppet 1 week ago

Also, you say they "dry out" quickly. That depends also on humidity and temperature. At the end of the day, this is essentially mucus and saliva that goes from one person to others, which if you think about it is really disgusting, even sans virus. But since it is in droplet form we don't take it as serious as if it were a glob of mucus or saliva. Especially medical setting (doctor waiting room for ex, hospital, nursing homes, etc) this should be taken much more seriously. This is a very solvable problem. It's very strange to me that no one takes it serious. At least Asians's sort of take it serious, hence the mass adoption of masks, but there are even better ways to control the droplets. I have the inventions in my head and am thinking about working on this, but I'd really need some medical experts to work with.

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reddit_wisd0m 1 week ago

The weather condition are indeed very important on the propagation of this cloud and for the change of infectiousness of the virus within the cloud but unfortunately also very complex to model. When it comes to wearing a mask for normal people, it appears that's more effect to prevent spreading the virus, if the infected person is wearing one than if a healthy person is wearing one. This also means, if an asymptomatic person is wearing one out of habite, this certainly appears useful. The problem is that the aren't enough masks for everyone at the moment and the medical personal need them the most. Hence, it may harm the health system of a country, if normal people start buying and using (excessively/inappropriately) face masks. So, if you have an unused mask at home, it might be more useful to donate it to a hospital than using it for yourself, assuming that you are still healthy.

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pat000pat 1 week ago

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qabadai 1 week ago

I have to imagine there are diminishing returns though and every foot of extra distance contributes to prevention.

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TriFolk 1 week ago

A 2020 report from China demonstrated that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus particles could be found in the ventilation systems in hospital rooms of patients with COVID-19.5 Finding virus particles in these systems is more consistent with the turbulent gas cloud hypothesis of disease transmission than the dichotomous model because it explains how viable virus particles can travel long distances from patients.

Source of why they think it’s outdated model

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Alisonwundrlnd 1 week ago

Was trying trying to explain this here last week and got dwnvted to hell but yeah it is airborne in a dang puff cloud.

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InitialPush 1 week ago

28 foot social distance rule. Bam, problem solved

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Wolf_Frozen 1 week ago

lol well yeah we’ve known this since January. Why are you guys listening to the CDC? Like the boy who cried wolf..

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allan303 1 week ago

it's so hard to confirm it, finally

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TokLwdSaNthg 1 h ago

An earlier study. Italy: The Virus Hits Polluted Areas. Is There a Correlation? https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2020/03/italy-virus-hits-polluted-areas-is.html

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UltraMegaMegaMan Wake up and... smell the ashes. 2 hs ago

The virus is an opportunist. Comorbidities, pre-existing conditions, pollution, stress. It capitalizes on weaknesses.

Makes Trump's repeal of all environmental regulation all the more lethal. Trump is directly responsible for thousands of American deaths.

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Quaroma 6 hs ago

Covid 19 deaths and air pollution are going to be higher around cities for different reasons.

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Mike7704 6 hs ago

We know everything negative in life links to higher death rates if you contact Covid.

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Moiras-Machine 7 hs ago

"Yeah well the people seventy years ago would have died from coronavirus at a much higher rate so it's nothing to worry about." - USS stooges, saved you some time.

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rangoon03 5 hs ago

“See? It’s better now than it used to be !” - Also USS stooges

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Sentinel_Intel 7 hs ago

Haha I think you nailed it. Thumbs up.

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ToonMaster21 8 hs ago

I mean.. this makes sense from a logical stand point. If the air is more polluted, making it harder to breathe and decreasing lung efficiency over time... wouldn't the chances of dying from any lung/breathing related issue be increased?

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dongknog 5 hs ago

Maybe someone should impose a light to moderate fee on these companies since they’re actively killing people faster than they usually do. That will stop them!

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ifuckinghateueatshit 5 hs ago

Pgh was also crushed druing the 1918 pandemic due to pollution

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Meisterbrau02 6 hs ago

somebody get these researchers a nobel prize!

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faceeatingleopard 7 hs ago

Seems like a no brainer to me. The most vicious corona infections target the lungs. So things like air pollution over a lifetime and smoking certainly weaken the lungs to some extent.

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oldbkenobi Upper Lawrenceville 8 hs ago

Here's a direct link to the study, which looks at PM 2.5 levels compared to COVID-19 mortality.

Considering this region's atrocious PM 2.5 levels, this definitely something that will need to be considered here as we start discussing easing up on intense social distancing measures. Other factors that could work against us are the above-average rate of smoking here and the relatively older population.

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Der_Missionar 6 hs ago

Interesting, however, that Pittsburgh (till now) appears to have a really low death rate...

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Agent_DZ-015 1 h ago

I suspect much of that has to do with things getting shut down around Pittsburgh before the spread of the virus here got really out of hand, so the hospitals haven’t been overrun like many other places.

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gonzone 11 hs ago

air pollution equals asthma equals weaker lungs equals death.

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Remember, be friendly! Attack the argument, not the user! Comments violating Rules 1 or 2 will be removed at the moderators' discretion. Please report rule breaking behavior and refrain from downvoting whenever possible.

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Article:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Congressional leaders are jolting ahead with another coronavirus  rescue package as President Donald Trump indicated Monday that Americans will need more aid during the stark pandemic and economic shutdown.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said another $1 trillion is needed, beyond the just-passed $2.2 trillion effort. She wants another round of direct payments to Americans and more money for companies to keep making payroll. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said in recent days  that health care should top the list, signaling his intent to get to work on a new bill.

“We’re going to take good care of our people,” Trump said Monday at his daily White House briefing. “It was not their fault.”

It’s a rare sign of emerging consensus as Washington responds to the public health emergency and severe economic fallout  that is ransacking communities nationwide, a crisis on par with a war effort or the Great Depression.

The contours of the package are still being debated and any votes in Congress remain a logistical conundrum. The House and Senate adjourned for most of the month, as part of strict stay-at-home orders from public health officials to prevent the spread of the highly contagious virus.

On an afternoon conference call with House Democrats, Pelosi told lawmakers at least another $1 trillion would be needed, according to a person unauthorized to discuss the call and granted anonymity.

The California Democrat has vowed to put the next package together in time for a House vote this month.

Former Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen joined the private call and warned Democrats the economic fallout will depend on the public health response to the pandemic, the person said. As businesses shutter to stop the virus’ spread, it has hurled the U.S. economy toward a recession.

Yellen said it was impossible to know how deep and long the recession would be, and added that it would depend on the health response.

The former Fed chair also told them the nation’s unemployment rate is now at least 13% and this week’s jobless report will show higher numbers than last week’s.

Yellen said she expects a 30 percent contraction of GDP this year, but has seen models as high as 50 percent, according to a Democratic aide unauthorized to discuss the call and granted anonymity.

The earlier relief package, approved in late March, included one-time $1,200 direct payments to Americans, along with forgivable small business loans for companies to keep making payroll. It also included a boost of unemployment pay, money for hospitals and a $500 billion fund for bigger corporations and industries.

Pelosi told Democrats said the $1,200 direct payments to Americans and the paycheck protection program for small businesses are not enough and more needs to be done, the person said.

She also said there needs to be more aid through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps.

Trump has favored direct checks to Americans, and gave a nod to another round in the next package.

“It is absolutely under serious consideration,” he said.

The shifts from the political leaders are stark amid what officials warn could be one of the toughest weeks for the country, as the number of confirmed cases and deaths climbs.

McConnell told The Associated Press on Friday that there will be another package and health care must be at the “top of the list.”

McConnell, R-Ky., said Congress should focus on correcting any shortcomings in the earlier $2.2 trillion aid bill and rely on health care experts for solutions to “wipe out” the virus.

Pelosi, D-Calif., last week also backed off her more sweeping proposals for an infrastructure package to put people back to work, focusing on the more immediate health care and economic needs.

As governors plead for federal intervention to provide hard-hit hospitals in New York and elsewhere with vital medical ventilators, equipment and supplies, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called for a better-coordinated effort to care for the many sick people.

Schumer told reporters on a conference call Monday that he’s urging the White House to appoint a single, well-qualified “czar” to handle both the production and distribution of medical supplies and equipment to fight the pandemic.

Right now, Schumer said, governors and other officials have no choice but to search out materials helter-skelter.

“Ev...

Article was too long for Reddit, read the whole article above

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tehmlem 8 hs ago

Can you imagine how great it must be to be a zookeeper for these things. You get to spend years getting harder and harder before the main event happens and you get to get off watching two bears fuck. Lucky bastards.

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theendisneah 9 hs ago

They need to get them good and drunk. The night will be right for love. Love gravy.

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hatetepidshowers 9 hs ago

The headline is only half the story.

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kalekayn 10 hs ago

I guess these pandas want to stay child free.

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Positive-Vibes-2-All 11 hs ago

Clearly pandas have a need for privacy.This seems to show how much more sensitive animals are to their surroundings than is generally thought.

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misdirected_asshole 13 hs ago

TIL pandas are not exhibitionists

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DocWsky 14 hs ago

CNN missed free clicks by not posting the doggy-style pandas as their thumbnail.

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AkshatTiwari__ 12 hs ago

There was one with that image but i did not upload it

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Gumwall_Art_Critic Yesterday

Have they tried Smooth Jazz?

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Bergamo122 Yesterday

Everything from China is defective.

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darkestb4thadawn Yesterday

“And let me ask you this: the two pandas in the zoo. Do you care if they fuck? I don't. Why don't they stop telling me on the news the pandas didn't fuck again this year? I'm not concerned. I have no emotional stake in panda fucking, all right? If they want to, they will; if not, they'll watch "The Price is Right". Probably the only reason they're not doing it on time is 'cause some jackoff from the environmental movement has moved into the cage with them. Could you get a hard-on if some guy in a green t-shirt with a stopwatch was taking your girlfriend's rectal temperature? Leave these creatures alone!” — George Carlin

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AngelusLilium Yesterday

Oh the one hand... Aces are valid.

But on the other... Endangered species.

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serendipindy Yesterday

The zoo closes and the panda get busy. Who new pandas just didn't like an audience?

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lizlemon921 Yesterday

Can someone ELI5 this??

“If Ying Ying is pregnant, the gestation period for giant pandas ranges between 72 and 324 days.”

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acjj1990 14 hs ago

Pandas are notoriously lazy cunts, if it wasn't for man, they themselves would have naturally gone extinct.

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Babybee1761 Yesterday

I am lucky if I get 15 minutes in a session!

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ineedtotakeashit Yesterday

Like high school all over again...

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benjababe Yesterday

Pandas aren't worth sucking china's dick for

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HonorableWadeJones Yesterday

Rob Dibble?

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staiano Papi Yesterday

Damn it. Ro**n** Magil. But Dibble is a close second.

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anneoneamouse Yesterday

Cue an infinite number of "my spouse" jokes.

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donaldhasalittledick Yesterday

Sounds like the setup for a bad joke

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Frostflyer Yesterday

They need to name the baby Corona

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DeadlyKitt4 Moderator Yesterday

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tegat Yesterday

Maybe they should move them out of zoo, if privacy is the problem.

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prguitarman Yesterday

Guess they’re shy

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smartest_man__alive Yesterday

You Dog

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sykisyki Yesterday

Awww lol. They are so cute. They didnt want anybody to know

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