RT @covidperspectiv: New York's 1,800 ICU beds are expected to be full in 48 hours. Obstetrician-gynecologists and radiologists are being called in to work in emergency wards. The situation is sadly deteriorating.
Heartbreaking. The Italian doctors' stories are now here.
This tragedy is only modestly caused by COVID0-19.
It's mostly due politicians who a) depleted investment in public infrastructure and b) were too concerned about optics to act aggressively once writing was on the wall. https://t.co/pZBifS7q4l
The deaths from the disease are bad enough. My best friends mom took her life the other day after having retired from the police force she worked at for 26 years. She bought a new condo, got a new job and was still 5 years out from collecting her pension. She lost her job 2 weeks ago and was dead by Saturday. The deaths not counted in the covid19 statistics will increase as well as the economy gets worse. We are headed for dark times.
At this point, you have to choose to be ignorant enough to take that kind of stance. You're better than this, man. I don't know you, but you can do better than an intellectually dishonest remark like this.
Nothing dishonest about it. Just a fact that every year ordinary influenza kills more than this coronavirus appears on a course to do. I feel for everyone who loses a loved one to any disease, but hysteria does nothing but increase the damage that already is inevitable. For your reading consideration:
And the NYT doesn't do anyone a favor using words like "Apocalyptic".
Let’s look at facts...
Flu R0 = 1.3
H1N1 R0 = 1.3
COVID19 R0 ~ 2.5
Flu infects ~ 30 million Americans / season
H1N1 infected ~ 60 million in the US
2 virus w/similar R0 value but H1N1 infected twice as much, why? No vaccine. About 48% of Americans gets the flu vaccine a year.
COVID19 is much more infectious, and it has no vaccine. Which means it would infect a lot more than 60 million Americans.
Then let’s look at fatality rate...
Flu = 0.1%
H1N1 = 0.02%
COVID19 from 0.6% (S.Korea) ~ 10% (Italy)
Flu kills about 15k-60k Americans/year on the average.
H1N1 killed about 12,000.
So assume we don’t buy into the “hysteria” and allow the virus to run its course... and let’s assume by some miracle it ONLY infects 60 million Americans like the H1N1 did (keep in mind that it is much less infectious than COVID19). Let’s apply the best case number of 0.6% death...
That’s 360,000 death. Much, much more than the flu, in the best case scenario.
Then let’s look at what’s really going to be a problem, the collapse of the health care system.
Let’s take that 60 million infected number, and apply the 20% which will require hospital care, that’s 12 million cases. We have about 1 million beds in the US as any given time, and much much less ICU and ventilators.
This is not fear mongering, not hysteria. Especially not when multiple countries has shown it can bring even the finest health system to its knees. Medical workers dying. Patients being selected to live or die because there’s not enough resources to save them all.
To still believe the world is overreacting is to stick your head in a giant pile of shit while a forest fire is raging all around you.
At this point no-one knows the true number of persons infected by COVID-19. Not in the US, not in Italy, not China, or anywhere. So the true mortality rate can only be surmised. And like the flu, this will eventually become a exercise in estimates. So our arguments using numbers, both yours, mine, and our sources, are at best incomplete at this time.
So my position is, and remains, that the media has hyped this up to the point where the politicians have to do something and as usual anything they do has unintended consequence. I hope that it passes quickly and the emotional and economic impact can be held within bounds.
Only time will tell what the real story is.
And I hope your other discussions and comments throughout the web don't always end in profanities and insults like they have on this thread. Goodby.
Yes. Mortality rate is unknown, that’s why we take the data we have a make an educated case, which is about 2-6%. But for discussion sake, I took the lowest known ratio of 0.6% from South Korea.
The 0.6% is likely quite accurate due to the wide spread testing South Korea is doing.
But let’s not dwell on the numbers and argue over their validity. Let’s simply take a look at reality we are seeing all over the world where medical system being overwhelmed. When we lack medical resources, unnecessary deaths will be the result.
Beyond mainstream media in the US, the same information is being reported from different media sources globally, in different languages, as well as anecdotally by front line medical staffs directly. There is no arguments on whether our healthcare system is being overwhelmed. It IS happening right now.
Now you can dismiss these as a giant global co-conspiracy, meant to create this “hysteria”. Or at the very least, thinks there’s a slight possibility that this is a global pandemic and that more stringent precautions should be taken in your daily life.
Why? So we can reduce unnecessary deaths.
I know someone who works in construction on long Island. His recent job was turning a gas station into a morgue and cutting the guard rail between the hospital and the gas station so refrigerated trucks have a direct route. This is real. Stay inside
I feel bad that so many people are dying of no fault of their own. Their death could have been prevented if US government would have been proactive. Even until mid March there was no check at airports.
Instead of providing ways to prevent it using masks, the government was downplaying it. What's worse is no one will pay for these deaths
Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.”
Feb. 2: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We can’t have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus. So we’re gonna see what happens, but we did shut it down, yes.”
Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.”
Feb. 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”
Feb. 19: “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.”
Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
Feb. 25: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”
Feb. 26: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done."
Feb. 28: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
Feb. 29: “We’re the number-one travel destination anywhere in the world, yet we have far fewer cases of the disease than even countries with much less travel or a much smaller population.”
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It’s funny, NPR just put out an article exactly about [the lack of CDC presence](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/25/821009072/as-the-coronavirus-crisis-heats-up-why-arent-we-hearing-from-the-cdc)
USA doesn't have that kind of leadership but yes that would be the best thing. Instead people are going to flee NY and spread it everywhere. 15 days left until no more ventilators country-wide. Patients are going to start leaving NY soon and being treated elsewhere as I imagine NY simply won't have enough of them much sooner. People will either die or leave NY, what would you choose.
Most people call it by its actual name. What will we call the next virus to come out of China? Chinese virus II? Do you also refer to SARS as Chinese virus? It's just such a feeble, transparent attempt at being edgy.