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Alex - @maskoficarus
1 month ago
RT @antoniogm: "The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision."
https://t.co/23K008370V
6
21
Preston Byrne - @prestonjbyrne
1 month ago
RT @antoniogm: "The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision."
https://t.co/23K008370V
6
20
mcstafford
2 years ago
I remember the disconnect I felt with taking Pluto off the list of planets until I realized how small it is.
I have a similar disconnection with calling the moon a world.
1
daniel-alex
daniel-alex'); DROP TABLE userFlairs;-- 2 years ago
Shame to hear that, tho at 86 it's a life well lived. Also really like [this photo](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Alan_Bean_photo_at_NASM_by_Matthew_Bisanz.jpg/1280px-Alan_Bean_photo_at_NASM_by_Matthew_Bisanz.jpg) of him with his space paintings. :)
1
CapitanM
2 years ago
But... Absolutely ignorant here: apart from the guys who went to the moon, there are more people who has been in another place outside earth?
12
clayt6
2 years ago
First off, it's hard to ask a question out of ignorance, but it's one of the best (and hardest) reasons to ask.
As for the question, many have been in orbit around Earth (533), either solo or aboard the international space station (at an altitude of about 250 miles), but nobody has gone beyond the Moon (at an "altitude" of about 250,000 miles). Twelve people went there. Nothing in-between is of much interest, and anything beyond has never been attempted.
36
CapitanM
2 years ago
Ooh I only knew about the first expedition.
I have to update myself asap.
Thanks
5
FondueDiligence
2 years ago
>nobody has gone beyond the Moon (at an "altitude" of about 250,000 miles). Twelve people went there.
A little pedantic, but 24 people left low Earth orbit to visit the moon but only 12 of those actually landed on the surface. Apollo 8 and 10 orbited the moon without landing. Apollo 13 had to abort landing on the moon but still did a flyby. Apollo 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, and 17 all sent two astronauts to the surface while a third continued to orbit the moon in the command module.
36
AluminiumSandworm
Actually a giant spaceworm 2 years ago
we have until 2030, if it stays accurate. maybe we'll be back before then.
19
OmnipotentEntity
Mostly Harmless 2 years ago
Per the graph, we're already behind. 4 left should have waited until 2020 or so.
12
SolHiemis
Is angry that Rubens tubes are more fancy than Pin 2 years ago
The 50th percentile graph jumps from 5 to 4 around 2018 so we're on track.
33
Taiga_Blank
LOOK UPON MY CUTENESS AND DESPAIR! 2 years ago
That honestly is one of the most profound title-texts Randall's ever written.
211
natedogg787
2 years ago
Sci-Fi youtuber Isaac Arthur laid out a scenario of how tis woulc go, it was pretty interesting: [Dead Aliens](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7fLNvpl0c8)
8
xkcd_bot
2 years ago
Title text: The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision.
Don't get it? explain xkcd
Helping xkcd readers on mobile devices since 1336766715. Sincerely, xkcd_bot. <3
135
macksting
2 years ago
Has anybody sent this to NASA? I'm sure some folks have seen it, and they have serious funding problems as often as not, but if there's someone at the top who hasn't seen it and should...
That said, I'm still pretty darn happy about that picture of Charon's dark side lit up by Plutoshine, so there is that.
1
yogu32
2 years ago
I don't even think Elon Musk would agree with it (the alt text), him being an economic person and still striving for the colonization of the solar system.
4
erikb85
2 years ago
> I don't even think Elon Musk would agree with it (the alt text), him being an economic person and still striving for the colonization of the solar system.
The alt text was exactly the reason I said that. From my understanding of Elon that is exactly something he would say, which doesn't mean that behind these words he's thinking clearly about financial topics as well.
To succeed with a big endeavor you always need true believers. And to these people one doesn't talk about money.
1
Boring_Sci_Fi
Beret Guy 2 years ago
Still, there is a very good chance everyone that has walked on the moon will die before anyone new does.
2
amanforallsaisons
2 years ago
Then a couple centuries later, we need a table for number of living humans who have walked on Earth...
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Straumli_Blight
2 years ago
Might want to make the graph a bit steeper, as both Blue Origin's [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) and SpaceX's [BFR] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket\)) will be able to land more than 2 people on the Moon at a time.
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Arancaytar
Pony 2 years ago
Relevant flair :P
There's an upcoming prediction question on Metaculus that asks whether we will make it in time:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/
5
runetrantor
Bobcats are cute 2 years ago
An astronaut that went to the moon just died, so this comic's estimate of how long until there are no living humans that have walked on other astronomical bodies keeps getting closer to it's inevitable conclusion. (Unless Space X or whoever else gets someone out soon)
And with each death of relevant astronauts, they update it.(The one in the comments)
34
runetrantor
Bobcats are cute 2 years ago
Probably, not one for statistics and actuarial tables, but my guess is that yeah, they are more or less 'assuming fast average death' and 'assuming slow average death'.
Though we can see most deaths remain near the median, as I guess it should. :P
3
Alekzcb
2 years ago
The future data has a 90% chance of being in the shaded area. Any given data point in the future has a 95% chance of being below the 95th percentile line, and a 5% chance of being below the 5th percentile line.
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shadowmask
Miss your loved ones? 2 years ago
It wouldn't be if we would just DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!
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Arancaytar
Pony 2 years ago
Exactly; we need to hurry and develop clinical immortality while we still have some Apollo astronauts left!
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Cobaltjedi117
[Citation Needed] 2 years ago
I volunteer to go to the moon or mars.
As long as I can come back, or can bring my xbox tv and internet.
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audigex
2 years ago
The first people to go to mars probably aren’t coming back. It’d be one hell of a way to die, though.
7
lare290
I fear Gnome Ann 2 years ago
If I was in even remotely good physical condition, I'd definitely want to permanently move to Mars. Correspondence chess and books are enough to keep me from going insane, so there would only be good things in going there: No need to talk to people other than the crew I'd be going with, no need to worry about finding and holding a job, plenty of time to ponder philosophy and mathematics...
1
Straumli_Blight
2 years ago
| Astronaut | Died |
|---|---|
| Neil Armstrong | August 25, 2012 |
| Edgar Mitchell | February 4, 2016 |
| Eugene Cernan | January 16, 2017 |
| John Young | January 5, 2018 |
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Arancaytar
Pony 2 years ago
I wonder where a new actuarial projection would lie. The median doesn't seem to change much, but the range would have narrowed somewhat by now.
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Straumli_Blight
2 years ago
Randall [wrote a python script to calculate actuarial tables](https://blog.xkcd.com/2012/07/12/a-morbid-python-script/), which is hosted [here](https://gist.github.com/snipsnipsnip/3730576).
The remaining astronaut age ranges would be calculated by:
~$ python actuary.py 87m 85m 85m 82m 82m
17
Straumli_Blight
2 years ago
Astronaut | Died
---|---
[James Irwin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Irwin) | August 8, 1991
[Alan Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) | July 21, 1998
[Pete Conrad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Conrad) | July 8, 1999
21
FondueDiligence
2 years ago
I think it would be scarier if it was drastically far away from the median line.
127
dontthrowmeinabox
2 years ago
Not really. Astronauts had to be in peak physical shape, and may have thus been more likely than the average person to stay in peak physical shape, which would tend to reduce certain risks.
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DelusionalSocialist
2 years ago
I have no idea if it's the case, but it's not ridiculous to believe that they kept that into account in this model.
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rspeer
2 years ago
Right, what if they all came back with a slow-acting but ultimately fatal Moon Disease? Or what if they found the secret to immortality on the Moon?
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FondueDiligence
2 years ago
>slow-acting but ultimately fatal Moon Disease
I know the general consensus has always been that radiation in space isn't especially dangerous over short time spans, but at least in my mind there was always the worry that going through the Van Allen belt or spending several days outside of the protection of Earth's atmosphere might subject a person to some unknown but deadly form of radiation. That would spell long term trouble for any future human spaceflight.
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tossoneout
2 years ago
Possibly some of the most highly physically trained people on this planet at that time, much fitter than the median American.
6
daniel-alex
daniel-alex'); DROP TABLE userFlairs;-- 2 years ago
John Young's death reminded me again of this depressing xkcd comic.
40
xkcd_bot
2 years ago
Title text: The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision.
Don't get it? explain xkcd
For the good of mobile users! Sincerely, xkcd_bot. <3
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Arancaytar
Pony 3 years ago
FYI, here is an updated graphic (marking the deaths of Armstrong in 2012, Mitchell in 2016 and Cernan now).
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ilinamorato
My code's compiling 3 years ago
Interesting. They're beating the odds, largely. Humans who have walked on another planet appear to be longer-lived than the actuarial tables would predict, on average.
Probably something about general health and fitness.
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ilinamorato
My code's compiling 3 years ago
If it's good enough for the anti-vaxxers and climate deniers, it's good enough for me.
Bad argument? Maybe.
3
rfry11
3 years ago
deleted ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^0.2548 [^^^What ^^^is ^^^this?](https://pastebin.com/FcrFs94k/36153)
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rafajafar
3 years ago
"The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision."
...damn.
24
eddiemon
3 years ago
I like the sentiment and it's a good line, but nothing about space exploration is irrational, at least not more so than any other human endeavor. Or maybe put it this way: There are plenty of rational reasons for space exploration.
The same can be said for fundamental science experiments.
11
[deleted]
3 years ago
Randall's likely using "irrational decision" sarcastically here, incorporating the phrasing opponents to space exploration would use, a la "look who's irrational now?"
2
[deleted]
3 years ago
The quote is specifically referring to economically sensible, not more generally. There's not an incredible amount of return on investment to be had in space exploration, so it is economically irrational.
2
runetrantor
Bobcats are cute 3 years ago
I guess the argument is that it's 'irrational' in the sense of 'throwing away money at a high risk endeavor that MAY produce great profits, but could also not'.
Funding the voyage that found the Americas would also be 'irrational' and certainly Columbus failed to get funding from other royals before Spain was game. (Supposedly because those other royals knew his estimate for the Earth's circumference was bollocks and he would not make it to India alive)
If you dont take the risk, you save money, because you will never know the wealth you missed on by not investing.
5
eddiemon
3 years ago
Since when do we measure the "profits" of space exploration in short-sighted financial terms? You cannot measure the financial "profits" of inspiring millions of children to study science and technology, of fundamentally changing how we see ourselves in the universe, not to mention the very tangible benefits of technological improvements developed during the space programs.
Not all human activity has to be measured in financial terms. Is investing in the arts "irrational" because it doesn't produce financial returns? What financial return would we get from saving lives or preventing suffering? Does that mean we should stop?
2
runetrantor
Bobcats are cute 3 years ago
> Since when do we measure the "profits" of space exploration in short-sighted financial terms?
Ask the politicians who fund (or not) space programs.
You are preaching to the choir here, anyone interested in space would LOVE to see a ton of money thrown into it as it will have huge dividends, but Randall is not speaking about us, but about the precisely short sighted people that fund stuff.
"Space stuff takes decades, I cant get re elected with that!"
2
eddiemon
3 years ago
And I'm saying calling it "irrational" in the first place is a bad way to make that point.
1
ilinamorato
My code's compiling 3 years ago
He's saying that other people are calling it irrational. He's using their word. It's a great way to make that point; conversationally quite subtle but powerful.
1
[deleted]
3 years ago
Thank you, you're exactly right. He's using the term "irrational decision" sarcastically.
2
eddiemon
3 years ago
And I'm saying it's a purely emotional appeal based on a semi-strawman, that is unlikely to convince anyone who doesn't already agree with him. Serious critics of space programs question things like cost, technological feasibility, concrete goals, tangible benefits, etc. There are very, very few people who say space programs are fundamentally worthless.
1
ilinamorato
My code's compiling 3 years ago
> Serious critics of space programs question things like cost, technological feasibility, concrete goals, tangible benefits, etc.
What do you think he means by "irrational?"
0
FallacyExplnationBot
3 years ago
^Hi! ^Here's ^a ^summary ^of ^the ^term ^"Strawman":
----
^^A [^^straw ^^man](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Straw_man) ^^is ^^logical ^^fallacy ^^that ^^occurs ^^when ^^a ^^debater [^^intentionally ^^misrepresents](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Red_herring) ^^their ^^opponent's ^^argument ^^as ^^a ^^weaker ^^version ^^and ^^rebuts ^^that ^^weak ^^& ^^fake ^^version ^^rather ^^than ^^their ^^opponent's ^^genuine ^^argument. ^^Intentional ^^strawmanning ^^usually ^^has ^^the ^^goal ^^of ^^[1] ^^avoiding ^^real ^^debate ^^against ^^their ^^opponent's ^^real ^^argument, ^^because ^^the ^^misrepresenter ^^risks ^^losing ^^in ^^a ^^fair ^^debate, ^^or ^^[2] ^^making ^^the ^^opponent's ^^position ^^appear ^^ridiculous ^^and ^^thus ^^win ^^over ^^bystanders.
^^Unintentional ^^misrepresentations ^^are ^^also ^^possible, ^^but ^^in ^^this ^^case, ^^the ^^misrepresenter ^^would ^^only ^^be ^^guilty ^^of ^^simple ^^ignorance. ^^While ^^their ^^argument ^^would ^^still ^^be ^^fallacious, ^^they ^^can ^^be ^^at ^^least [^^excused ^^of ^^malice.](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_Razor)
1
ParaspriteHugger
There's someone inside my head (but it's not me) 3 years ago
[It shall be our way] (https://youtu.be/YufsbE4-jmY)
[To wander away] (https://youtu.be/YufsbE4-jmY)
[And take with us all that we know] (https://youtu.be/YufsbE4-jmY)
2
charlie_marlow
3 years ago
[The Moon is large enough in relation to Earth that it could be argued that it and Earth are a binary planet system.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_planet)
6
rchard2scout
Words Only 3 years ago
Except that the [barycenter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barycenter) of the Earth–Moon system lies inside the Earth, while in most binary planet systems (such as the Pluto–Charon system [except that Pluto and Charon are dwarf planets]), the barycenter is in between the planets.
3
TastyBrainMeats
Girl In Beret 3 years ago
>We might look upon the Moon, then, as neither a true satellite of the Earth nor a captured one, but as a planet in its own right, moving about the Sun in careful step with the Earth. From within the Earth–Moon system, the simplest way of picturing the situation is to have the Moon revolve about the Earth; but if you were to draw a picture of the orbits of the Earth and Moon about the Sun exactly to scale, you would see that the Moon's orbit is everywhere concave toward the Sun. It is always "falling toward" the Sun. All the other satellites, without exception, "fall away" from the Sun through part of their orbits, caught as they are by the superior pull of their primary planets – but not the Moon.
— Isaac Asimov
I would call that a compelling argument.
10
HAESisAMyth
3 years ago
> and is therefore not an official classification
But then I read the Asimov quote, so I agree with you.
Thanks for the link
4
Krinberry
Ten thousand years we slumbered... 3 years ago
Jesus Christ, half the people who've been to the moon have died?! We need to halt all plans for further exploration or colonization there until we can figure out what makes contact with it so deadly!
198
hoopaholik91
3 years ago
I mean, only 93% of all humans that have lived have died, so you tell me.
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tmckeage
3 years ago
Citation Needed
that would mean almost 100 billion people have lived.
Edit: I was wrong http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-16870579
9
rspeer
3 years ago
We are the 7%.
Oh god, that's why people are so upset about dead people voting.
31
ParaspriteHugger
There's someone inside my head (but it's not me) 3 years ago
Morituri Nolumus Mori.
2
ParaspriteHugger
There's someone inside my head (but it's not me) 3 years ago
Potatoes would be more traditional. To go, of course.
2
Arancaytar
Pony 3 years ago
What is more, the mortality seems to be constantly rising - implying that the effect is irreversible even decades after they stopped going to the moon.
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ParaspriteHugger
There's someone inside my head (but it's not me) 3 years ago
My theory would be time.
I also say that the moon is pretty safe, nobody ever died there, not like here on this killer dirt ball crawling with snakes, spiders, crocodiles and what else lives in Australia...
36
Krinberry
Ten thousand years we slumbered... 3 years ago
Crap, maybe this is a conspiracy by Australian spiders to make the moon look extra dangerous to keep people from moving there away from their pointy fangs!
18
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