COVID 19 is 20 times deadlier than the flu and easier to spread because it is contagious when the patient has few symptoms. Just because it isnt hitting your country hard yet (and hopefully wont at all) doesnt make it correct to downplay the impact it has had in china
> COVID 19 is 20 times deadlier than the flu
That we know of. We only have data on the people who got sick enough to need attention. I'm confident that, like the flu, there are thousands who suffered quietly at home and recovered without being counted.
Influenza has been studied for at least a century, we know how many people are getting it and recovering. COVID barely has a test. I can't back it up with anything, but I believe that in the end, COVID will end up being no worse than a bad flu. Still pretty bad, but not "let's shut down China" bad.
Kindly refrain from using "I believe" statements when discussing the mortality of an ongoing globalized infection.
It is not a "bad flu," it's an entirely different viral species. Additionally, 15% of current patients are developing severe forms of the disease, while a further 5% require critical care management. Half of Chinese critical cases end in death, or 2.5%, per the WHO report released 3/1/2020. This is *with* adequate care, reliant on available staffing and beds.
For the cases in London the rates is about halved, with \~1.4% of infections resulting in death.
Compare to the current flu season, with between 32-45 million infections, 310-560k severe illnesses, and 18-46k deaths attributed to flu. This places the average rate of severe illness at about 1.13% for the flu, with an average mortality rate of about 0.083%.
This suggests that the COVID-19 infection is between 14-30x more lethal than the flu. Likely due to a combination of living conditions and hospital availability.
The majority of deaths are occurring in patients aged 50 on up, with \~0.2% occurring in patients aged 10 to 39.
> It is not a "bad flu," it's an entirely different viral species.
No shit. That's why I said "as bad as" instead of something like "the same as". And then when I said "I believe", I was offering an opinion as to what will happen in the future. I was not trying to believe my way into facts.
I will state it again: we only know about the bad cases of COVID-19, so the statistics will skew heavily toward severity. We have already seen the beginning of that, considering that the death rate was purported to be 20% in earlier coverage.
(In fact, the Spanish Flu outbreak had a mortality rate of 2.5%. Granted, that's with the less sophisticated medicine of the time, but it still sort of proves my point.)
So... kindly refrain yourself.
It is false to say that we ***only*** know about bad cases of COVID-19. WHO uses the same tools and algorithms for calculating cases as for the flu, cold, and other systemic diseases. This is to say, most cases of mild illness are not reported, thus leaving the experts with the challenging job of extrapolating.
That said, it *is* correct to say that the results are likely skewed, but I wouldn't declare heavily. Current estimates are consistently running between 2-4%.
I'm not sure which coverage you found the 20% mortality figure in, I've tried various phrases but only came up with the 20% moderate and severe cases. If the final kill rate is \~2.5%, then that also makes it about 20x more lethal than the flu, perhaps a mixture of values.
I must also correct your figure regarding the spanish flu of 1918. An estimated 500 million persons were infected, and between 20-100 million died, with optimistic estimates ranging around 40-50mil. This places the mortality rate of the second wave Spanish Flu between 8-10%.
The range is so wide due to massive news, health department, and record-keeping blackouts due to sick staff; thus a lot of information had to be acquired after the fact.
This has costs the global economy something like six trillion dollars in a very short period of time. If this continues our carbon emissions will be restricted to the smoke from our camp fires cause we will all be living in the woods.
The global economy is not the end all be all of standard of human development. Ultimately it's all numbers in a computer system. When did this become a more important factor in human development then living standard or average income. GDP is just a measure of goods produced.
If the global economy collapses leading to wide layoffs sure but not a small drop because the market is experiencing volitility. Well unless you've directly invested in stocks ect but even still the market will rebound after coronavirus fears lessen.
For some reason we're supposed to expect and accept that the fall in the stock market is to be much worse for the average (typical) person, than the benefit the average person gets from the rise in the stock market.
Most countries have offshored their industry to China. China is also the biggest investor in green energy. Meanwhile, conservatives actively deny and fight against green energy in order to *oWn ThE lIbS*.
Per capita pollution is a more meaningful number for comparison than absolute numbers.
In 2016, per capita CO2 emissions in metric tons stood at
USA - 14.95
China - 6.57
India - 1.57
In absolute numbers, USA is still the second largest polluter in the world.
Yes, but China is doing something about it. We deny it’s even happening. By the way? We’re #2 on the list with a population much less than China.
Read this article...China has committed to reducing greenhouse gases...we pull out of the Paris Accord.
Between 1980 and 2018, gross domestic product increased 175 percent, vehicle miles traveled increased 111 percent, energy consumption increased 30 percent, and U.S. population grew by 44 percent. During the same time period, total emissions of the six principal air pollutants dropped by 68 percent.
[EPA: Air Quality - National Summary](https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/air-quality-national-summary)
>I’m pretty sure the US met whatever yearly goals the accord had even after we pulled out.
And you're wrong.
Other countries weren’t holding up their end? Where did you get this from?
Even the ultra Conservative Heritage Foundation doesn’t use that as an excuse...
The truth of the matter is that a Trump wanted to troll the world...period.
[Washington Post: Few countries are meeting the Paris climate goals. Here are the ones that are.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/10/11/few-countries-are-meeting-paris-climate-goals-here-are-ones-that-are/)
[New York Times: The World Still Isn't Meeting Its Climate Goals](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/07/climate/world-emissions-paris-goals-not-on-track.html)
[The Guardian: Paris climate deal: world not on track to meet goal](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/04/paris-climate-deal-world-not-on-track-to-meet-goal-amid-continuous-emissions)
Fuck those political "news" sites should be illegal or have a big banner with "POLITICAL BIAS" written all over it. That article stinks of greed and the so-called "commenters" should be ashamed of themselves for thinking these are good reasons for the people in general. Also using earlier Heritages articles to back up on their facts is not very trustworthy. Fucking up the global environment to save some money... I feel sick.
Welcome to r/Coronavirus! We have a very specific set of rules here. Here are the highlights:
Be civil. Personal attacks and accusations are not allowed. Repeated offences may lead to a ban.
Avoid off-topic political discussions. Comments must be related to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Comments focused on politicians rather than public policy will be locked/removed at our discretion and repeat offenders may be banned.
Please use reliable sources. Unverified twitter/youtube accounts, facebook pages, or just general unverified personal accounts are not acceptable.
General questions and prepping info should be kept to the Daily Discussion Thread.
No giving or soliciting medical advice. This includes verified health/medical professionals.
If you are feeling anxious, depressed, or overwhelmed please see our list of support resources
So basicly nasa proved that china pose a huge problem for our climate. Well that's what we get people, want things and it has to be mass produced. Humans need for thing is the result of climate problem.
The traffic index in China is declining since the virus outbreack. Just check the current congestion levels of the different cities in China over the last 7 days with the average congestion figures. Very intersting data
I have a degree in economics from a top 25 US university and have worked in financial markets for going on 8 years now (as well as doing some coding to develop financial analysis tools.)
I did not take this seriously until 2 weeks ago when we started to observe that China was not polluting. What's FAR more concerning is that they are steadily polluting LESS as time goes by. This image shows the gasses that are generated (in part) to produce electricity from coal, and in China coal is everything [they consume 50 percent of the worlds production of coal.]
These measurements indicate they are falling FAR below even subsistence levels of electricity and have remained there for over two weeks, with things steadily getting worse. What that means is they don't have heat or hot water right now, much less the ability to do anything even remotely close to opening up factories in a substantial way. The speed with which these emissions dropped was unprecedented even when looking at data from countries dealing with various other disasters [IE when we dropped the atomic bombs on Japan their productivity did not contract this much]
China has essentially disconnected from the internet, but there are some heros out there getting things out a couple times a day, probably by smuggling the video out on memory cards.
Video has come out today essentially proving that China is dealing with another Wuhan over 1000 miles away. They are NOT going to be making a damn thing for the foreseeable future and given the fact that they blew up their economy dealing with Wuhan and it is a GHOST town tells me everything I need to know. This is collapse. Additionally over the weekend two papers were submitted for publication: the first indicated that it can spread via the water supply (and one of these heros has also leaked video of people in line with buckets to get water) and the other indicates that contraction of this virus is 100 percent fatal within about 6 months. This is an extinction level event and over the next 36 hours you are going to see the US start to unravel very, very very quickly. when the US unravels the entire world financial system unravels with it.
It's not going to matter because this is the end, barring a straight up miracle.
Incredible claims require incredible evidence.
Even if you posted your bonafide, verified credentials for all to see, these claims are serious and go against quite a bit of evidence gathered by various, credible sources from around the world.
It would significantly help your case if you posted your evidence. Otherwise, your comment will be considered by many others as fear mongering, fake news, disinformation, panicked lying, exc...
I'm not accusing you of any of that, I'm just saying for something like this, we need the sauce.
> and the other indicates that contraction of this virus is 100 percent fatal within about 6 months. This is an extinction level event and over the next 36 hours you are going to see the US start to unravel very, very very quickly.
Lmao please tell me you don’t actually believe nonsense like that. I genuinely laughed at how ridiculous that was.
I am not sure about you but when you follow someone on YouTube for months and you see them do a diary detailing their worries and concerns and in a deteriorating environment you stop hearing from them you do find it concerning. They may not be a family member or friends but they are human beings. You wish for their wellbeing.
With the amount of travel restrictions, go to the news and look at videos of there streets, once a packed and busy financial district now looks like the start of an apocalypse with little to no one on the streets. The amount of cars that aren’t running hugely decreases the amount of CO2 in the area. Not to mention most planes aren’t running, factories, and markets are shut down temporarily.
Not to burst any bubbles, but losing aerosol particulates will cause a rapid spiking in the earth's temperature. Don't take my word for it, though. Read this from Yale University-
e360: If we were to end all pollution today, how much more of an effect would that have?
Samset: That’s what we tried to find out in the paper that came out earlier this year — we turned off all anthropogenic aerosol emissions from all over the world. So if you removed all our emissions today, then the world would rapidly — within a year or two — warm between a half of a degree and 1 degree Celsius additionally.