@CryptoEthan Interesting article you wrote! Only thing I missed in your calculation was the ever growing difficulty, which will have a huge effect on your ROI and profitability as well.
RT @SGBarbour: Hashrate trending down again after the last difficulty adjustment up. Very interesting time in bitcoin mining.. interesting to see the self-regulating dynamic in action!
He's saying that in 16 days the Bitcoin Core difficulty will adjust again and that is an opportunity for the miners to execute a supposed coup and move over to Bitcoin Cash. Thus the value of BTC will drop and the value of BCH will rise. This is of course pure speculation.
During the last days Bitcoin had around one block every 8 minutes, because hashrate has grown since the last difficulty adjustment. Now it's adjusted, so it will be only one block every 10 minutes.
As blocks are limited to 1MB and (nearly) always full, Bitcoin's real TX capacity was reduced by around 17% with this diff adjustment.
i think the capacity reduction could be more like 40%. b/c difficulty just went up about 20%. and also bcc will be more profitable to mine for the next 1.5 difficulty periods, so btc cld lose maybe 20% of its hashrate for like 4 days.
the disappointing thing is this perfect storm is happening at the end of a week when tx's die down, and not on a monday.
It looks that way but I wonder who that big miner was for the last day or so that seems to have switched off now.
We might also get another difficulty adjustment on the old chain before Bitcoin Cash reaches the difficulty reset.
Longer term as long as people use it it will be fine. There is a reason it is holding it's value even if it's early days.