At the ~top of the bull market, bulls think BTC is going to infinite. At the ~bottom of the bear market, bears think BTC is going to zero. This is very predictable human psychology! https://t.co/fMmiUHDcyG
BREAKING: Leaders of Al-Quaeda, ISIS, Hezbollah and Hamas commit mass suicide claiming that "we can no longer continue with this lie."
"Everything we did to the west pales in comparison to what they did to themselves. We are irrelevant." said the leader of ISIS, urging his followers to accept the grim reality of their uselessness and move on with their lives. "Go back to your loved ones, get married, have children. Do everything you always wanted. Just don't buy bitcoins or dinars."
If every bitcoin owner spends all of their bitcoins on dinars now, it'll create a run for the dinar, inflating its price. Then they can go back to bitcoins once they start to recover. Boom, infinite money (no, seriously, this plus automated financial software is actually how the stock market operates).
I think the argument being made here is that the same people who are mining are also providing the processing power to support transactions, so if it goes back to PCs, the transactions will slow to a crawl.
The whole network will scale back down with the market cap decline, I agree.
I run a node without being a miner, but you're probably right that most nodes are nodes only because they get paid to be nodes. Having a node isn't completely free.
I just think the model for price decrease isn't "a plummet after a tipping point is reached". Rather, I think it's a series of decreases followed by a smaller rally.
I do think it will get back down to $600 or $300 within 3-4 months.
I have a controversial opinion this is due to tether and bitfinex and manipulation. Whoever decided they could invent virtual dollars out of thin air and lie about them being backed by real dollars has successfully trolled the bitcoin community into giving bitcoins for these worthless tethers. Now I hear tether/bitfinex is under criminal investigation and I think they are selling the bitcoins they aquired with their scam before their house of cards is exposed in a court.
I'm glad they are being investigated, as I think they are criminals, and I think it's good for bitcoin in the long run, but the illusion bitcoin is worth > 300 is going to get smashed in the short run, and we're hopefully back to value based on actual usage.
Whether through actual usage or another scam / pump, I see the potential in the medium run (1-2 years) for another big pump as likely enough to hold onto my coins. So I'm not selling. On the next rise I'll determine if it's a pump and try to sell at the top. If it's genuine, I may sell off a portion at a time.
But I don't see bitcoin going away or regressing into trash code or being overtaken by another crypto. And I don't see it being made illegal if wall street can make some money off us main street suckers.
Bitcoin is trustless. The trust people put into USDT is beyond me. I never bought any. But people are dumb enough to buy bitconnect so there's that.
Once the dust settles there's no reason I can see there won't be another pump and dump (maybe by different thieves this time). I can afford to wait for whatever makes it pump again. But I won't be fooled next time thinking it's going to the moon.
This isn't quite accurate.
Miner fees will recoup some cost temporarily, but if there are problems with suspicious network patterns (at one point a single pool dominated the mining power) this could still collapse.
The difficulty will lower, as less mining machines are online:
It took Bitcoin a decade to get to "four thousand dollars per coin". It used to be much less than a cent. That means it's grown multiple tens of fold. Do you really think Bitcoin going down like 5x since its peak is really that big of a deal? I think it dropped 10x before (MtGox scandal).
Most people tend to either overestimate or underestimate cryptocurrencies. But they really are underestimated most of the time. Doom and gloom happens every time the market is down for a while. When MtGox happened it was down for like 3 years. It's been less than a year since it started declining.
So try to get some perspective. What you're saying is mostly "wishful thinking" because you don't want GPU prices to increase again or whatever selfish reason you have to hate it. But it doesn't have much basis in reality.
Most people also forget that most new techie ideas fail. The idea of distributed transactions is a good one -- but that doesn't mean that bitcoin, or even blockchain, will take over the world.
For example, I think EVs are a really good idea. But I don't think all EV companies will succeed. I think Tesla has a good future, but I think that depends on their ability to execute. If they screw up, they will fail. And even if they don't they might have bad luck and fail.
Bitcoin reminds me of the Linux desktop. For decades geeks shouted about how Windows sucks and the future was Linux on every desktop. It never really happened.
Yes, Unix is the basis for most modern operating systems but not the desktop. I don't know if you remember all the hype about how the UI was so great because you could configure it different ways etc.
EDIT: Ad that fits into my thoughts about Bitcoin. It sits on top of blockchain, which looks like a winner (though I think it will be greatly modified in coming years) but Bitcoin itself seems like a engineer's idea of how markets work.
I don’t remember the hype so much, I always thought Linux was pretty awful, but I could see how Open Source software would infiltrate into many places. I feel like Unix has achieved some pretty amazing things. Bitcoin game theory seems to similarly infiltrate like GPL.
Thermionic power generators, 50 years. Magnetohydrodynamics, 60 years. Segways, 17 years. Pet rocks, 40 years. Man-made fusion, 65 years. (OK, to be fair, the H-bomb DID change society pretty vigorously.)
Another nocoiner with no understanding of the Bitcoin protocol bashing it. Let me explain something to you: mining difficulty is variable, it changes based on the cumulative hashing power (and consequently energy) of the miners. When prices increase, more miners join the party, hash rate increases and mining difficulty increases to match it so that it still takes ~10 minutes to award each new block. When the price crashes and miners leave the party, hash rate declines and mining difficulty decreases accordingly. All of this means the cost of energy (i.e. hashing power) increases and decreases as the price increases and decreases. And considering the fact that this is *the fourth time the market has experienced a crash of 80% or more* the protocol has already proven it doesn't cause a death spiral.
but it's not scaled to rate, it's scaled to length of the blockchain...
so coins mined in 2020 will need more electricity then coins mined in 2016.
I view BTC as having about the same value as an IP Address.
Useful in some minor manner but kind of silly to pay a lot for.
> All of this means the cost of energy (i.e. hashing power) increases and decreases as the price increases and decreases.
It scales within a certain range.
the author addresses this in a couple places:
> However, the number of miners cannot fall below a certain level, because without the miners providing the computing power to maintain the ledger, the bitcoin blockchain will not remain viable.
The question is, what is the price at which institutional miners can no longer make a profit? and how does that price connect with and interact with the market as a whole?
Also, I liked this part in particular:
>Bitcoin proponents will argue that bitcoin’s price has dropped by large percentages before. Except this most recent decline is different in three significant ways. First, the magnitude of the recent decline dwarfs the magnitudes of past declines. Second, the losers in the recent decline are new investors who will likely retreat until there is more clarity around bitcoin’s use cases. Third, the futures markets have changed the game, enabling miners to estimate their mining losses and profits at the outset — if you can buy in a futures market at a price below my mining costs, why mine for a sure loss?
Bitcoin has crashed ~80% or more and fully recovered 3 times successfully. Throughout all three crashes it has adjusted its energy consumption and still maintained a market of people turning a profit mining it. And even *after* this crash, it is the best performing asset in the world for the first 10 years of its existence. These are all facts that are predicated on no additional assumptions.
Sure. But the previous 3 times, no one outside the bitcoin realm gave a shit.
Now, we have millions of people who’ve likely lost their shirt with with, and it’s fall from grace makes the news weekly.
Like any other commodity or currency, it’s value is based upon its demand, and how widespread it is in the wider economy.
I predict that it will never recover from this. Once bitten, twice shy. As they say.
Beta Money surrounded by an alpha payments system with no intrinsic value whose cost of of extraction now exceeds its virtual trade value. Better yet, the nature of its existence is not centralized, subject to a committee of argumentative nerds who cannot agree ending up in software forks, and has issues of scale that have no good solution, and by its very nature, cannot have any inbuilt protection against fraudulent transfer that people expect from modern payment systems. Its utility virtually disappears during blackouts and natural disaster. It will surely end well. Tulips, at least, look pretty, and have the outside possibility of getting one laid.
You talk finance in a world where intrinsic technical specs are so solid and elegant that after 10 years of nay sayer is still solid. Tulips were tulips. Bitcoin is the beginning of a new tech. Why banks and the big finance companies are investing in Blockchain? Who started the Blockchain? Is gold really worth all the money is valued today? Or is it just our perception of value? I am quite positive that the day our friend Warren will say " I am going to invest on Bitcoin because despite I don't get it , the forecast says I'll make a lot of money on it" the price will spike up 100times
Gold is already 50 years obsolete. Haven't you heard? The dollar is the new reserve. Liquidity is everything. Prior to 2008, the Federal Reserve thought 500 Billion was enough to serve the world's needs. After 2008, they lent out 20 Trillion, because they wanted to avoid worldwide famine. Liquidity traps are the reason the Federal Reserve came to be in the first place, because clearing houses are needed to keep the money flowing, and in that regard, the blockchain is positively stone age. Bitcoin has no cash flow. It is not an investment. Like gold, it is primarily a store of value. Unlike gold, it has no intrinsic value. It's only worth is as an exchange medium, so long as the criminal underworld continues to use it for black market drug, weapons, and human trafficking trade, and those days are numbered. The number of suckers they can bring in from legitimate markets to inflate value is in steep decline.
It will mainly be worthless because it is worthless. The cost to produce it doesn't matter. It didn't matter when it went to $19,700, nor does it matter now. It's easy to imagine something still having value to people even if that value is less than what it would cost to make another one.
Bitcoin will sink down to whatever cost it needs to be at to function as a way to buy drugs online, or as a novelty.
>Bitcoin will sink down to whatever cost it needs to be at to function as a way to buy drugs online, or as a novelty.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime's World Drug Report 2005 estimates the size of the global illicit drug market at **US$321.6 billion** in 2003 alone. With a world GDP of US$36 trillion in the same year, the illegal drug trade may be estimated as nearly 1% of total global trade.
Absolutely. Thin client for Monero can flip leaderboard in just one month, imo.
But you can't ignore that bitcoin is a valid use case for drug purchases now and de-facto coin of all dark net dealings, not only drugs. USD/BTC exchange rate is ridiculous due to "investors" and "traders", but it won't go to 0 if all that people finally get off, at least not for the reasons in that article. It's same ignorance as being bitcoin "investor", just from the opposite side.
>Thin client for Monero can flip leaderboard in just one month, imo.
whats a thin client and whats flip the leaderboard mean? I hope you dont mean some stupid update or app for monero means that its going to overtake bitcoin? because bitcoin is 64 times moneros market cap. in a month?
Surely you didnt just say something that stupid right? Who knows since you use too much lingo from talking to idiotic butters all day everyday, jerkin it to some gainz. Since noone will let you guys near real jobs, since you dont actually have any talents and enjoy crypto since you get to Live Action Roleplay as people with actual important thoughts and peoples respect.
If the fiat onramps get killed then all you LARPers will shut the fuck up about crypto and the pyramid scheming will end and thats all I give a shit about. After that the FBI and other 3 letter organizations can track down drug and human trafficking transactions.
All I want is for the truth to get out to the public - what you are saying - that crypto is totally useless except for criminal activity. It is crimebux, helping to spread darkness and chaos throughout the world.
If people get that and the public understands that, then great. Now at least we are on square one and talking honestly.
You worry too much as for observer, hope that you are less toxic and hateful in real life.
It's also interesting what's in your head that at the same time you believe in market cap of crypto and butters elimination. I also wonder why do you think I am LARPer (need to google that) that needed to "shut the fuck up"?
That's probably ok if you are an idiot that is hodling? Or invested at some point?
Sorry for your loss (c)
nope not invested. this whole sub is for making fun of you idiots who are into crypto, you get that? every single coin is stupid.
and you didnt respond to anything I said. once everyone understands that all coinz are is crimebux, the price will plummet and fiat onramps will be closed by authorities. then you will promptly stop giving a fuck about crypto.
But I'm not in crypto and never been. Are you writing about yourself? Sorry I don't get it, not native speaker. It's probably some ~~idiotic~~ idioma.
It's just very sad that you can't have civilized discussion, thus there is no point to go in details. But in short, yes "coinz" won't go anywhere because of that. It's like 3 or 4 attempt and this time - extremely successful that even legitimized by governments and supported by "investors" and other retards. Drug dealers don't keep "coinz" it's a tool. It may cost 5 cents and works perfectly well. Google Egold, LibertyReserve, educate yourself....
But also you can do better and " stop giving a fuck about crypto ", since you understand nothing about it.
blah blah blah. Again you write and write and say nothing. Once crypto is outed as just being crime money, it will destroy the space as we know it today. Getting actual dollars in and out of the system will be much harder. gullible investors will be gone.
and if you are not into crypto why are you talking about? why are you acting like you understand?
This article is not convincing. Yes, it is possible for the price of bitcoin to drop below the current cost of mining. This will cause fewer people to mine bitcoin, but this won't lead to a death spiral. There is a mechanism in place to correct for this. The difficulty will go down, making it easier to find blocks, thereby reducing the cost of mining to the point where miners can make a profit again, or at least break even. Bitcoin worked just fine when the price was $1,000, or $100. The mining rewards were much smaller then in dollar terms, but the difficulty was also lower so mining can certainly still be profitable enough to continue to exist even at lower bitcoin prices.
>The difficulty will go down, making it easier to find blocks, thereby reducing the cost of mining
I heard that difficulty gets adjusted once every 2016 blocks, so if the miner exodus *coin*cides with the start of this interval there will be nobody left to keep mining until the adjustment.
If these numbers are right, then just under $100M worth of electricity will need to be expended in order to reach the next difficulty adjustment, and it won't get any easier until then, no matter how much the price drops. It's hard to imagine anyone making that kind of investment in the current market.
Hmm. I wonder if there's a way to anticipate the difficulty reduction? Could someone mine, but not publish, a bunch of empty blocks that meet the projected future difficulty but not the current difficulty, and then publish them all at once and claim tons of block rewards, while also making the following difficulty adjustment push the difficulty sky-high again? If that works, I can say with some certainty that it would be very good for Bitcoin.
youre missing the idea that the people who make the electricity are too far removed from the people spending it. rack up a giant bill, mine the next block, keep the scheme going a little longer while you exit scam. leave a bunch of unpaid power bills behind you.
I may still have some bitcoin, but I certainly hope it becomes worthless. It's turned out to be ridiculously energy-consuming, and it seems to be used mostly for speculation rather than payment. Transactions have become too slow and expensive to be efficient for a payment system.
It's entirely possible that cryptocurrencies will be the future, but it won't be bitcoin. It needs to be more efficient and more scalable than that.
I haven't bought bitcoin since it was sitting at $8 a coin... but hey, Buy when there's blood on the streets. I don't think bitcoin is nearly as important as many of people who invest in it believe. But it does seem to be a thing that will be around for a while. I view it as digital gold, and not necessarily a currency. Unless you're buying during one of the large speculative bubbles (which come every few years) it's not a TERRIBLE store of value... though it wouldn't be my first choice, it is an option. I think it has some more life in it.
Bitcoin's price drop might look bad enought to warrant sensational articles, but if you take any bitcoin price chart over the last years (like ) and switch it to logarithmic price, it doesn't appear exceptional. The same thing happened in 2013.
> And it looks as though the Blockchain economy is here to stay, where many of our transactions will be processed on the blockchain and use cryptocurrency for daily transactions. Indeed, while the world maybe forever be indebted to Satoshi Nakamoto for giving us a viable cryptocurrency, bitcoin may cease to exist.
Huh? Does anyone seriously use cryptocurrencies for daily purchases right now?
It seems to me like cryptocurrencies are entirely useless (except maybe for illegal things and ransomware) and the entire space will be dead after it's done crashing. Ultimately, Satoshi Nakamoto may have accomplished nothing but caused untold misery for thousands of bankrupted people, redistributed money like a lottery, and burned the rest in electricity.
Mining can only become unprofitable for a while: Until the difficulty is adjusted.
There is a whole industry depending on Bitcoin. If mining becomes unprofitable, there will be players that pay for the mining to continue until the difficulty adjusts. To keep their companies alive.
There is also another counterargument. One that does not only apply to the problem of mining but to any problem with Bitcoin in general: If a hard problem occurs, it is very likely that the industry would collectively switch to a fork.
For me, the value of Bitcoin is mainly rooted in that fact. Bitcoin is widely spread. So it will probably be the seed for future currencies that one day will be more valuable then the original.
> Third, the futures markets have changed the game, enabling miners to estimate their mining losses and profits at the outset — if you can buy in a futures market at a price below my mining costs, why mine for a sure loss?
Bitcoin price in the past 30 days
Chart https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin has been on a pressure
And that's look mainly driven by market, miners will shake up and driven to mine what's most profitable and they have option to point to Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV for ASICs
Bitcoins' value is in its utility at the moment. Until it stabilizes it is poor as a money (a store of value) while still quite handy as a currency (exchange of value). If it becomes a more stable store of value than competing fiat currencies it will have even more value added.