Caroline Cadwalladr of the Guardian would like to have a word with you ...
You mean the tweet where she says
> Is there a Twitter brainstrust on how to navigate this hellscape? I'd be grateful for its wise counsel. This article is contested. I have zero financial expertise so can't judge original or takedowns. Hence I'm deleting, screenshotting & posting here & y'all can carry on fighting
And follows up with screenshots of this very same source?
The fact that she's talking about it and her followers and friends in Bloomberg are talking about it, is more important for me. Also the follow up tweets that she posts is chilling reading.
What would be important for me, would be, if she would post a tweet stating, "I, N.N., have investigated this matter independently, and found out from multiple sources, facts A, B and C."
Open source financial intelligence is relatively simple to investigate if you know what you're looking for, so whenever there's a legitimate instance of misbehaviour, there will be multiple credible people and organizations making these claims.
If this was just now reported, maybe it'll take a few days for that to happen. If so, let's talk at that point, it won't be too late.
Found the Bloomberg article it's from 2018.
There was a major increase in the number of “short” positions taken by UK hedge funds when Boris Johnson ran for Conservative leader.
We cannot identify any such increase; this seems to be an error caused by looking at incomplete data.
An article in the Byline Times, which has been shared tens of thousands of times on social media, makes a series of claims about donors to Vote Leave and Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign standing to profit from a no deal Brexit.
But at least one key part of the article—a claim that the number of “short positions” taken by hedge funds increased dramatically in the lead up to Boris Johnson’s election as Conservative leader—seems likely to be based on a misunderstanding of the data.
In reality, no such spike in the number of short positions seems to have occurred.
Argh, fed up of reading this crap. This is not some special conspiracy where insiders are going to make hundreds of millions from Brexit.
Some people will definitely make hundreds of millions from Brexit, but they will be a whole variety of people including a lot of outsiders. Anyone who has a few hundred quid to their name and can accurately predict what will happen can make money. Anyone. You don't need to be Boris' school chum, or work for Theresa May's husband. Everyone has access to the markets and can gamble on what they think the outcome will look like.
For all the people on these threads who are TOTALLY CONVINCED that Boris and Moggs vile best mates are going to make a killing that ONLY they can make, how many ACTUALLY believe it? Because they, too, can make a killing if they are so certain, by exchanging all their investments and savings for US dollars (or another investment vehicle which will see little or no impact from Brexit), or by shorting British firms. Anyone can do it.
Furthermore, all these short positions mentioned in the article have a second party to them. You cannot short something without a party on the other side. When you short it, you are betting it will go down. The other person is betting it will go up. For every "short" trade you've seen here with someone betting Brexit will be terrible, there is also someone betting it won't be nearly as bad as you think it will. And guess what... those are mostly hedge funds too!
This activity is LITERALLY mostly hedge funds, betting against each other, that Brexit will be bad. Or that it won't be bad.
But this thread will almost certainly be full of people merrily pretending that Rees-Mogg is somehow going to make a billion off it that no-one else can, and they'll be getting upvoted for it.
Nope only hedge funds can make shorts. You can’t run a hedge fund unless you are certified to and can prove you have enough experience which means accredited finance industry groups.
One of the leading body of experts pushing for a hard brexit with zero tariffs is the alternative arrangements commission which is choc full of hedge funds and groups like legatum which buy up assets at fire sale prices in crashed economies.
Funnily enough Danny Kruger who was working at legatum is now one of boris Johnson’s closest advisors
> Nope only hedge funds can make shorts.
You can use derivatives to achieve a "short sell" effect without actually borrowing shares. CFDs or Spread Betting are available to small time investors. You can setup an account with a debit card and be trading within minutes.
> The difference is, neither you nor I are in a position to actively make this happen.
What are you talking about? All you need is a debit card, a mobile phone and you can create an account and be trading in seconds. You will have to use derivatives instead of actual shorts (unless you're very wealthy) but you can achieve profits too if you can predict the future.
The article is very misleading if you do not have a proper understanding of short positions.
I can already see plenty of people thinking this story means that they make £8bn, if we leave the EU without a deal. To be clear, they would only make £8 billion if by leaving the EU the value of the assets they are shorting goes to 0, which is never going to happen.
So these fund managers have shorted some companies like Debenhams which are well known to be struggling. This isn't evidence of them betting on no deal. Also, these are hedge funds, they take short positions to offset the risk of their longs. Really dubious article