Is there a place where I can get historical daily case data by state (or maybe even county)? I'd like to plot my local case growth compared to New York to get a better understanding of where we are on the exponential curve. Similar to the plots worldometer has for the entire country
Fortunately coronaviruses have RNA proof-reading ability, which is very rare in viruses. This means it is less likely that it will mutate compared to other viruses. However if a strand were to mutate to a deadly variant, it would become quite prevalent.
It is very unlikely for a virus to mutate into a more lethal strain under normal conditions. Natural selection almost always favors milder strains because they are more successful at spreading to new hosts. One of the only viruses known to have become more lethal over the course of a pandemic was the Spanish flu but that was because of "unnatural" selection due to WW1. Soldiers who were infected in the trenches with a mild strain were more likely to stay in place while the more critically ill were sent on trains away from the front lines to crowded field hospitals where they were more likely to infect other people. This virus was then spread further around the world by soldiers returning home causing a deadlier second wave that disproportionately effected young healthy adults like the ones in the trenches.
After a slow start the US has been able to overtake Chinas early lead and breakout from the pack shooting past a beleaguered Italy who put a good showing!
Unless something changes, it looks like Team USA will take home the Gold!
South Korea who was once just behind China in the first place, tripped over and was taken over by Italy, Europe, Iran and US, and will be not far exiting the top ten.
US continues to show a strong leading!
Man I’ll use humor to cope any day, and if gallows humor is what we’ve got, then I’m laughing, Damnit. It’s highly likely that at one point or another this will get very personal very quickly, and maybe then the laughter in my life will be in short supply.
So until then, being as conscientious as possible to those around you, grab those laughs when you can. They’re precious.
Yes exactly. Deaths lag six days behind positive tests. In one week, we will see how we are doing. Of course, if the system is completely overwhelmed by the end of next week, that number could easily skyrocket by the end of the second week.
No US has a much higher population. NYC is at its limit right now, but other areas seem to have acted in time...
The issue is going to be that there's still open travel between states.
And masks. I won't shut up about masks, but it makes no sense not to normalize masks for everyone.
Homemade masks are effective at protecting other people from you. They may also be helpful to stop face touching. N95s are not helpful for most people. They need to be properly fitted. Surgical masks ARE beneficial, but we still need to save these for front line personnel.
* Stay home if you can right now. We are still flattening the curve. This is obvious, but stay home especially if you have any symptoms.
* Don't touch your face.
* Wash hands frequently
* Stay 3-6 ft away from everyone else
* Purell before and after touching common surfaces in public
* Wear a mask
This is not going to over by Easter by any means. Trump said it would be, I doubt it because each state is on a different timetable of the virus. New York is way ahead and California too, I am in Arizona and ngl we are so fucked in this state.
He didn't say it would be over, he threw out a random day he hoped it would be over. Sort of odd, but I'm used to it with him.
Thankfully, but sadly I think New York and Cali being way ahead is going to help the rest of the country. They are taking the brunt of it, and learning lessons that are helping the rest of us get ahead of it.
Washington State here. Looking forward to going to my "essential" job tomorrow where none of my coworkers give a fuck about the circumstances and we've actually been busier than usual with customers. Feeling pretty hopeless and doomed.
Yeah the cases keep rising. Abbot refuses to put the entire state in a lock-down, but luckily most major cities and counties are doing it on their on now. I'm in Austin and the mayor put the city under a shelter in place mandate a couples days ago.
Me too, I'm in the East Valley. No one in my neighborhood seems to be taking it seriously. Kids are still running around playing and even going to the park. I can't convince my dad to make my nephew stay in. For pretty much the past week I've only gone out when necessary like to the store or doctor's. I am already pretty hermit like so not much has changed for me though. I do feel bad for my kid though. He really misses going to preschool and playing with other kids. I have noticed quite a few businesses only doing pickup orders which is good. We really need a shelter in place order here so people can start taking this more seriously.
I kinda hope it does, it means you're testing a lot. You probably have way more cases, identifying them is fundamental. Tests tests and act accordingly, you're the most powerful nation in the world you're the nation that by far has the most resources to handle the situation.
edit: I'm just blabbing. Take all this with a grain of salt.
That's the real fear I have - we're not testing enough. We're talking officials running the show not wanting a cruise ship to dock because then the numbers would look bad. It isn't a stretch to think testing guidelines are tuned to that mentality and what we're seeing is the mass of this tidal wave pushing through cracks in the dam.
What we should be watching is the ratio of hospitalizations to tests performed. If that number is dropping, we're testing more (or hospitals are saturated, but it will be hard to ignore that headline). Most hospitals were denying tests to people that didn't require hospitalization or didn't have certain comorbidities. If tests are more abundant or restrictions on testing lifted, we'll see more asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases reported.
Here's some armchair epidemiology - obviously not accurate and ignores improvement in testing over time, recovery rates, introduction date, etc. Iceland has been doing widespread testing and their numbers show a fatality rate of 0.14% (from a report, but based on the same source as the following numbers, their rate is 0.25%). The US has a fatality rate of 1.4%. Ignoring recoveries from critical, Iceland's critical case rate is 1.4%. The US critical rate is 2.6%. It's a stretch, but since diagnosis and death have an indeterminate lag you have to smooth the data somehow, so I'm just looking at totals.
I don't see anyone reporting number of tests, but no one is saying that everyone that wants a test can get one (except one person). The above numbers seem to imply we have 2-5x's the number of cases actually reported and after watching the latest Binging with Babish YouTube video (posted 2 days ago) and seeing that he was denied a test, there's no way we're catching more than 10% of the cases.
It's a double-edged sword. More testing would show more cases, but lower fatality rate. That might lead people to take it less seriously and behave more carelessly, spreading the virus more, and leading to a net increase in total hospitalizations/deaths.
And 500,000 7 days later, next Friday.
Such is the result of untamed exponential growth. And I cannot see how the US can prevent this to happen; the infected ones that will lead to that number are already out there :'(
While the actual number of cases may still grow exponentially, the amount of confirmed cases will still be limited by the number of tests. So you won't see a ton of exponential growth in those numbers.
>While the actual number of cases may still grow exponentially, the amount of confirmed cases will still be limited by the number of tests. So you won't see a ton of exponential growth in those numbers.
Indeed, but the death number would grow exponentially, because you don't need to test to recognize one is dead.
Should have happened way before now. I’ve seen reports today of cities in the US going business as usual, as if we weren’t in the middle of the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu. If only they had listened to their leader when he said how serious of a problem this is.
It's almost 15,000 cases a day. We will probably hit 100,000 in one or two days.
We could be looking at 30,000 to 45,000 cases per day in another week based on my extremely rough guesstimate.
Italy's peak was around 6500 per day.
America has somewhere between 40,000-60,000 ICU beds or perhaps 100,000 because I have conflicting data there.
It's already more than 15k per day, assuming that there will be another update later today. I'm following the numbers constantly and for the US in a few hours there is always another big update that adds a few thousand more cases and like 100 more deaths, has been like that every day around the same time. I could see the number going up to around 18k later when the update comes (assuming it's the same like the past days).
New York was barely at 10,000 tests a day a week ago, so that amount of testing being done is a surprise in itself. Actually a good one for once. On a side note, I also heard that a lot of places were moving to only testing people with clear symptoms, has there been a change in that policy or what is the cause of the rapid increase in testing?
Yeah, but the real bottleneck is the ICU beds and ventilators. By next week we will have somewhere in the range of 40,000 cases per day. PER DAY
The US has maybe 100,000 ICU beds.
Once those are all filled up things go downhill catastrophically faster best healthcare workers freak the f*** out and daily mortality numbers start rapidly climbing.
I wonder If we will hit 3,000 deaths per day?
That would be like a 9/11 everyday.
Italy peaked at 800 deaths per day and America has 5.5 times the population. So, it seems pretty darn possible even with a couple tens of thousands more ICUs what's it matter when you're looking at 40,000 cases per day?
> I wonder If we will hit 3,000 deaths per day? That would be like a 9/11 everyday.
I expect our peak to be around 3,000 per day, and stretched out quite a bit because different cities will hit their peaks at different times (New York quite soon, with SF, Chicago, LA, Boston, New Orleans, and probably more cities I can't think of right now following in coming weeks and months).
It's going to be ugly.
Chicago seems like its doing a good job at shutting down/social distancing.
They just shut down the lakefront trail and beaches because so many people were using them to be outside.
My friend happens to work in the heart of downtown Chicago (2 person office) and they’ve said it’s a ghost town basically
True, but the US is also climbing the ladder twice as fast as Italy and isn't taking anything near the preventive measures Italy is. So while relatively speaking the US is still doing 5 times better than Italy I forsee that number dropping fast.
Does that 34.5 exclude beds that are usually taken up by patients with other issues?
My son was in a CVICU late last year. That ICU was almost always full, and this was before we even knew about the virus.
Good news is that Washington is really flattening out. We are starting to get lapped by multiple states- just over 100 cases reported yesterday for instance, best daily number in a couple weeks.
Edit: looks like a data artifact; the numbers for today more than made up for the past couple low days.
A better number to look at than overall cases is cases per million. Remember China has 5x the population as the US, which means the US response has been that much worse.
US still can't match European countries in terms of cases per million people, where Spain, Italy, and Switzerland are 3x-5x higher right now. But don't worry, I have a bad feeling that won't last for long...
To be fair, China had one single epicenter. The US has multiple epicenters, which makes containment much harder. A major problem in the US is population mobility across states. With 50 states, there are bound to be some states that handle this poorly, and their infected residents will spread this virus to the other states that they visit.
Unless the US shuts down interstate travel, this will be an unsolvable problem. China's unitary model of government allows the central government to fire incompetent provincial governors at any time. Trump in contrast cannot fire state governors even if they are grossly incompetent. This guarantees that some states will continue to be run in an incompetent fashion with no recourse until the next election.
> Trump in contrast cannot fire state governors even if they are grossly incompetent.
Trump also did literally nothing for two month while praising China's containment efforts - yet he didn't do a single thing China's been doing. And then after two month he suddenly started to run the "Chinese virus" narrative.
Imagine if Xi Jingping is this incompetent.
Yeah, weird argument honestly. The reason china only had one epicenter is because they did a good job controlling it...
And it was supposed to be harder for them. Because they had to identify the new disease. We knew what it was before it was here, we just didn't make the right decisions.
The US had 2 HUGE advantages over China. (A) we had over a 2 month warning to prepare that they did not have and (B) China has a way higher population density than us.
Think about that. Given the above 2 things, the fact that the USA has surpassed China in number of cases is really outrageous and a sign that US leadership is monumentally incompetent.
China had one epicentre because they closed down 11 million people and heavily restricted 40 million more. They didn’t know if it was a fluke someone died or the return of SARS. As soon as they realized what the math was predicting they acted.
They acted very quickly. It’s a lot easier for someone from Wuhan to go to Beijing the to go to Miami. So the fact it was one epicentre is related to the fact they cracked down on movement.
At first when Hubei was shut down and other provinces weren’t, people in other provinces were extremely alerted to people from Hubei, has Hebei car plate, ID card, etc. Those people were reported to local CDC and were tracked and brought into (sometimes free, sometime not) quarantine.
Now in the west... people are alerted to Asian faces and reacted with racism and mask shaming, and nothing else.
2 weeks back I read in one of thread, a person claiming that soon we will reach a point where we will be seeing 100,000 cases per day.
I shrugged it off thinking its too far fetched and kinda being overblown, well I stand corrected and would like to extend my apologies.
From 300,000 to 400,000 in 3 days
From 400,000 to 500,000 in 2 days.
This is crazy.
I'm certainly hoping that we start to lower the worldwide trend by then, but if things continue to double roughly every 3 days then it'll be 1 million cases a day within about 12 days.
Of course it's hard to know if testing would even be able to keep up with growth on that scale and it is likely the global growth will trend downward in that time, but that's the simple math of exponential growth.
I wonder how much of this has to do with our culture of discouraging masks. This morning a guy I work with who lives in China said even though masks don't necessarily work for everyone, they remove social stigma so people who are sick wear them, and he thinks that was a helpful factor in cases going down.
I have a mask that I got years ago for woodworking and painting. (I’m not a hoarder or a prepper.)
I get a lot of odd looks, I wear it and don’t give a f$&k about what anyone thinks. If it filters out paint fumes I’m pretty sure it’ll help with this. I know I look like some oddball, but my son who has asthma is more important to me than what strangers think.
I have family in China and when I started hearing on the news about cases popping up in the US I started wearing face masks, a lot of other Chinese students did too. people made fun of me in class and I got a ton of weird looks but I really don’t understand why, we’re in a literal pandemic.
I don’t understand the logic that mask is “useless”, and Social distancing works. Nothing is perfect or completely useless. All the measures reduce the risk to a certain degree. And I personally think the mask is better than distancing in terms of reducing the spreading through our mouth and nose. CDC should encourage people to do both or anything people can do.
Masks work. Social distancing* works.
[\*] (though I'd prefer the term *physical* distancing, as we can certainly be social still)
Masks require manufacturing and distribution, and the world is terribly short of them. Physical distancing has potentially unlimited availability with no supply chain issues.
It's a disgrace that the CDC and their equivalents in many countries (including mine) have been saying that masks don't work when they actually do, but it's to *some* extent understandable given that the supply chain is weak enough that even under this falsehood critical medical personell cannot get access to sufficient numbers of them.
My take, in short:
* Masks work
* We don't have enough of them, so save them for the people who *really* fucking need it, i.e. healthcare workers
* The damage done by these half-truths to these incredibly important public health organizations will be greater than we can currently imagine :(
Even *given* this critical damage it might still have been the right call. If it ended up increasing the availability of PPE to healthcare workers by even 10% during this critical time it's probabl worth it. It's just *so, so* sad that it would have to come to this.
CDC: "Masks are not effective, but doctors/nurses NEED them."
Translation: "Do as I say, not as I do."
If they were honest about trying to avoid triggering panic and/or shortage problem, then their credibility wouldn't have taken a hit.
Honestly, I had to go to midtown Atlanta today to move my brother out of his apartment, I wore my mask and gloves, NOBODY there was even acting like anything g was happening, parks full of people, roads packed, people walking around jogging with groups. Everyone looked at me like I was crazy or stupid or paranoid when literally the HOSPITAL right down the street is at overflow capacity with Covid 19 patients dying. It makes my blood boil....
The southern US is going to get completely fucked. Northern/western states that begin isolating will just get reintroduced to the virus when theyre done. it really has to be nation wide to be effective.
Cities like Atlanta and New Orleans are going to dwarf NYC numbers in the coming week
A large portion of people down here in the south still think it's a regular flu and everyone is freaking out over nothing.
I'm distraught because my best friend's wedding is in a month and she is in complete denial over everything going on and is refusing to reschedule her 150+ guest wedding to a man she's been with almost a decade. I understand wanting to feel like everything is fine because you've been looking forward to this for ten years, but by that point, with exponential growth, statistically, there's a good chance her wedding will kill at least one person.
The idea that its just a flu down here will wreck us. One of the bridesmaids is a nurse and told me yesterday if she doesn't reschedule soon then she's done with her role and not even coming because her hospital is already overrun.
I'm exhausted and never being a bridesmaid again.
Lmao the last line made me laugh out loud.
Jeez.. couple the normal stress of a wedding with a global pandemic.. and a bride and family who can’t be dissuaded.
But seriously you should side with your nurse friend — I’d also refuse to participate unless rescheduled. If the bride is willing to risk lives to have her day then fuck her bc that’s like the ultimate bridezilla lol
If u have enough masks that health Care workers aren't experiencing shortages then ideally you would want everyone to wear a mask all the time in public cuz u don't always know u are infected, you can be asymptomatic and still infect others. Also wearing a mask while someone coughs on you can still help reduce viral load which will help reduce the severity of the disease (at least that's what some studies show)
Well, people hoard, especially here (in the US), and there's no efficient way to distribute masks to the public right now that won't cause huge crowds clawing for them. They also really want to make sure the health care workers across the nation get them first. Social distancing, though, is something they can encourage everyone to do now.
Is there any actual evidence that private citizens have been hoarding masks in such a quantity that would provide a meaningful difference to major impacted health institutions?
My guess would be no, not even close. Hanging on to the 10-pack of N95's you bought for the bathroom remodel does not really count.
The mask shortage is a failure of manufacturing and leadership, not a selfish American populace.
That reminds me of how the climate discussion seems to focus on individuals driving less, eating leas meat and carrying reusable coffee cups, which is helpful but not anywhere near as impactful as government policies limiting the carbon footprint of industry.
Every time the great garbage patch in the Pacific gets brought up people conveniently gloss over the fact that the vast majority of that is caused by fishing industries. Just fishing alone, how much more is industrial plastics?
I agree with you. There is a shortage. But, I think the government can still just encourage people use something to cover their face, use some homemade masks from cloth or scarf. And address the shortage problem seriously.
I wonder how readily available masks (not necessarily N95 respirators, but even simple surgical masks) are for the public even if they wanted to wear them. Seeing lots of homemade masks, but not sure how effective they are (if at all).
there is a research stud ythat said even home-made masks confer some level of protection, [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/)
> Any type of general mask use is likely to decrease viral exposure and infection risk on a population level, in spite of imperfect fit and imperfect adherence, personal respirators providing most protection.
There was an AMA with a Korean doctor the other day in this sub. He said there were Covid 19 patients in Korea who wore mask since they got sick and infected no one. If we can also encourage the healthy to wear one also, I believe the the virus can be halted sooner.
I never understood how "Covering your face does nothing" and "Doctors need masks so they don't get sick" are supposed to co-exist.
I don't endorse buying masks when doctors need them, but if you have a mask or even a scarf laying around and you use it, you're still doing *something* positive.
I've been tracking the numbers on this, for about a week now. Check this out:
Worldwide cases: 307,708 ........ Deaths: 13,106
New York: 11,675 ....... Deaths: 66
Worldwide: 532,641 ...... Deaths: 24,050
New York: 38,977 ...... Deaths: 469
That's not even a week!
I also want to let everyone know, I live in New Mexico, and my friend's son came back from Washington state, and came down with some symptoms. He got tested 8 days ago, and still NO TEST RESULTS. The nurse says they are up to 10 days behind. I don't know how similar NM is to other states, but if this is any indication, the numbers are VASTLY low-balled.
Be safe, people.
[If the number of lily pads on a pond doubles every day and it takes 48 days to cover the whole pond, on what day will the pond be half covered?](https://youtu.be/SAwz0hTMJO4?t=22)
EDIT: Adding spoiler answer: >!on the 47th day!<
People have a really tough time grasping exponential growth.
I wagered with my family a week ago when we would hit 1M cases. They guessed months from now, I guessed by march 31st. Gonna win myself a cool 20$
those case numbers mean nothing just fyi. there are multiple orders of magnitude more cases. they reflect the number of tests done per country more than actual cases. best to look at actual deaths which seem very very low for the us compared to for example Italy with the same amount of cases as the muricans. I'm not sure what that means, sure Italy's most hit region lombardy has an elderly population but there's surely some under reporting of usa deaths
edit thanks for all the replies guys I am now ready to join my local corona research centre
The US only started testing seriously a week ago. I'm sure a lot of deaths went unnoticed because the virus was never detected. I guess the same goes for Italy but deffinitly not as much as the muricans.
MAYBE 3 states have extensive testing now- most states still aren’t. People are only tested in my state if they end up in the hospital and even then, it’s hard to get tested. I’m sure the US passed China’s number of total cases days ago. Supposedly, we only have 5 cases in my county. Suspiciously, that number has dropped to 1 on different websites, and local news has reported there are 3. 🙄the fact that we have doubled the official count in a few days says a lot about how well the virus has been contained.
There were 40 SCHEDULED tests today for the 5 county task force in my local area. For 500,000+ people. And who knows how many of them they actually did. No one is saying. Our local government is totally shitting the bed on effectively communicating the seriousness of this problem.
Sad thing about this is italy only tests serious cases that go to hospital as well so imagine their real numbers. Also ppl are literally dying in their homes alone without a diagnosis and aren't counted for Corona cuz no one will ever know their cause of death.