For all those reading this as NY's failure, remember: a) NYC population density is off the charts vs rest of US, so transmission rates naturally higher, and b) it has been testing much more aggressively than most other states, so its data is ahead. But yes, shit is getting real. https://t.co/6AJGY2c3xT
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It’s impossible to say at this point. We just don’t have the data. China’s data is likely misleading at least and completely false in reality.
Also, the reason this can’t be compared to the flu even if death rates end up being similar is that we already have built up some immunity to the flu and have vaccines (tenuous vaccines but vaccines non-the-less).
We don’t have any immunity to COVID.
So even if you model off of the lowest death rate possible you have to account for the lack of immunity.
Estimates are saying anywhere between 40-80% infection rate to create herd immunity. So take the world population or whatever country you line in and multiply by low and high estimates for herd immunity (40% and 80%), then multiply by your estimates death rate.
Numbers are still beyond tragic even at low death rates.
Of course this doesn’t factor in hospital and ICU availability, age ranges, proximity (large cities v. Rural, etc) so the numbers will be broad stroke but gives a glimpse into the possible death tolls.
Even once we reach herd immunity there is a likelihood this virus will stick around seasonally, possibly indefinitely. At that point you can compare to the flu, but not until a lot of people die to get us to her immunity.
Please reconsider speculating. It's of course very helpful and everyone wants to know the mortality rate, but please don't try to use the data in this way as it doesn't work right now.
If someone has a positive swab, until their illness is complete (either recovery or death) you can't calculate a percentage (and even then it's complicated, since not every person in the population is tested or every case gets tested). You can't calculate this rate from active case totals. We have a lot more long-term data for influenza to get a more reliable calculation, we just don't have that data for COVID-19.
Let's see if we can figure this out for ourselves:
We keep hearing that the mortality rate (in the US) for the flu is 0.2%, and if that's an average for all cases of flu, then I guess a bad flu would have to be at least 0.4%
Now let's figure out the mortality rate (in the US) for this new virus:
Given limited testing, there are probably 10 times as many cases than the 29,666 known cases, and given that deaths from it are more likely to be verified, let's say there are twice as many deaths from it as the 377 that are known, and let's double that again because there are existing cases that will become fatal over the next week or two. Therefore, (377*2)*2/(29,666*10)=0.005=0.5%
Your math is accurate but I think itll be a tad bit higher or lower because community has been happening for over 2 months basically. So many more infected also a tad bit more deceased. Really nice assessment though this is Positivity !
Before saturation maybe and it depends entirely upon the age of population hit.
The first waves are among younger travelers. Our oldest people are more likely to chill at home.
So we won't see deaths jump until the waves crash into those people.
Then we won't see the effects of saturation on death rates until it reaches a tipping point.
Lol, your "calculation" is based on making up numbers that sound good to you?
Also, you're dividing deaths by active cases. Inherent in that is the assumption that everyone currently infected will survive.
You're effectively just making a guess, with little to no basis.
This math is bad because you are mixing recent cases with old cases.
Take the total number of deaths today and divide by the number of cases from 2 weeks ago. That’s your actual death rate. Death takes 2-3 weeks.
Yeah, I didn't expect a 5-minute analysis to consider all the variables. That's why I asked for additional thoughts--crowd sourced it--once I had enough to get a discussion going. Do you have any refinements yourself?
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It is definitely here, but it is being kept under wraps. There have been unmarked military vehicles parked around WVU, and I personally heard from people that work at Ruby Memorial hospital that they have quarantined cases.