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I like this - so much I gave my class the (fictional) spreadsheet near the end as an exercise this week.

Good Info there. Thx.

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It's a good read, but I have some lingering concerns. For one, there have been some concerns about the data coming out of China. No doubt their strategy has been effective, but it's not clear if it has been as effective as the government claims. And I also think the author downplays the potential consequences of the policies he is advocating. Contact tracing al a South Korea is incredibly intrusive. Preferable to house arrest, absolutely, but whereas I think that house arrest would end at some point, I am not so sure the government would be as inclined to stop recording its citizens' movements.

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Great share. Everyone should look at this.

Really good read, thanks for sharing. A passage that stuck out to me, especially in context of the current conversation of: "the cure is worse than the problem"

These numbers only show people dying from coronavirus. But what happens if all your healthcare system is collapsed by coronavirus patients? Others also die from other ailments.

What happens if you have a heart attack but the ambulance takes 50 minutes to come instead of 8 (too many coronavirus cases) and once you arrive, there’s no ICU and no doctor available? You die.

There are 4 million admissions to the ICU in the US every year, and 500k (~13%) of them die. Without ICU beds, that share would likely go much closer to 80%. Even if only 50% died, in a year-long epidemic you go from 500k deaths a year to 2M, so you’re adding 1.5M deaths, just with collateral damage.

If the coronavirus is left to spread, the US healthcare system will collapse, and the deaths will be in the millions, maybe more than 10 million.

I have a feeling that a lot of people in Lethbridge don’t care/believe the seriousness of what’s going on or that they should be staying home.

It is a great article, and follow-up to his other great article: @tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca">Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Fancy some Labour Party related chat? Come and say hi on the r/Labour Discord server: https://discord.gg/S8pJtqA

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This is a heavily data driven article that outlines what we are looking at under different scenarios. It's a longish read, but it addresses damn near everything about this virus, and the methods we have to limit spread.

But the most interesting thing is how the data is then applied on a cost benefit analysis, and weighs the various mitigation strategies against their actual benefit. Reading this article really puts the thing into perspective, as it relates to the impact it will have on the healthcare system, but just as important, how it relates to the costs associated with the mitigation strategies.

But the most vital takeaway: All of efforts to control spread are simply buying us time. It will spread, it will overload the healthcare system. The question is: When? And can we be ready to face it better if we buy, literally, ourselves some time to get spun up.

Without arguing the merits of this article. I can say it wasn't written for MN. As such the line of today is not accurate for us. We are somewhere to the left of that on the leading edge. With 12 hospitalizations and one death we are not at that point in the curve.

this article is r/threadkillers material

That was quite a good read. 👍

One of the most comprehensive articles on the coronavirus that i have seen.

Very good article. It's a shame that Trump can't read, or listen to those who can.

é dar a ler à Tico e Teco das conferências diárias.

The main problem is that we don't know just how extreme measures will need to be during the dance period in order to keep R below 1, since as the article states, not enough research has been done. It's therefore impossible to properly compare the costs of the Mitigation vs. the Hammer/Dance strategy. With mitigation, the end date is at least somewhat known, and therefore the approximate economic costs can be determined. Conversely, the economic costs of the hammer/dance approach are completely unknowable. It could be anywhere from mild to total collapse of the economy and descent into anarchy. The collapse of civilization would cost not tens of millions, but hundreds of millions if not billions of lives.

As horrible as the mitigation strategy appears, the unknowns with the hammer/dance approach scare me far more.

while it is comforting to know we have a strategy, its still absolutely terrifying that it has come to this.

i just hope the state of the world changes for the better when this is all over.

honestly never thought id see something like this in my lifetime, but here we are.

Informative article

This seems to assume the numbers out of China are accurate when they seem implausable to me. Some valid information for sure but I seems to rely on the numbers coming from China being accurate.

I am also interested in what the next 18 months look like if they don't buy us time. Then we can presume it will fall somewhere in between.

Well that is a well informed piece. Thanks

That is the most complete, thorough and sensible piece of literature ive read on this situation.

Its so hard to have faith in the US government though