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The case counts on these dashboards will prove to be nothing more than noise. They will be rounding errors: a distorted function of how much we were looking and where.
The flu causes up to a billion cases each season. Some years, more (H1N1 in 2009, for example). In the United States, it's anywhere between 45-60 million infections, 83% subclinical or asymptomatic, and influenza runs its course for about 4-5 months. A majority of the cases happen within an even tighter time frame. Each individual strain of the flu typically peaks and recedes even faster than looking at them in aggregate.
We have consistently been told that this is not the flu because it is way more contagious. Indeed, research points to an R0 of ~3 for coronavirus vs. ~1.5 for the flu. R0 isn't the only thing that matters, of course. However, it makes no logical sense that the flu can deal 500-600k deaths in a year (mostly in the Northern hemisphere and mostly in the winter months) and tally ~1 billion infections, but the SARS-CoV-2 which has existed for at least 4 months is comparatively such a chump.
Of course, I understand that it takes a new virus some time to get going. The flu gets a head start each year, no doubt. But, still, it's obvious that we've had at least two months of community spread—COVID19 outbreak—in so many places that the scope cannot be ignored.
What does the flu, with its comparably low R0, do in its first two months every year? Why would we ever think that a few hundred thousand cases is remotely close to the truth?
Sure, that's a concern. But, as I've always said, that's a logistical problem as much as it is a virological one.
If there's one thing that the "flatten the curve" meme really screwed up in people's minds, it's this idea that the capacity line was fixed in place. We had to "flatten the curve" below a capacity line that can be raised.
A couple things are important to remember here:
1. This virus doesn't fundamentally change our treatment protocols for respiratory infections, it just places demands on the system through volume. We don't need full-blown hospitals to increase temporary ventilator/oxygen/bed capacity.
2. Looking at the overall curve and the overall system capacity make no sense on a scale as big as the United States. There is no homogeneous curve and homogeneous health system capacity and homogenous need for the same actions to be taken everywhere. Our response should become more adaptable, flexible, and dynamic based on local needs.
My guess is that recovery numbers are poorly-reported. A lot of people are just being told to stay at home and get in touch if it worsens. Do you think those people make a point to call back and tell their doctor they're all better?
Also, we've had an extreme shortage of tests. How many do you think they've used to make sure patients with mild symptoms are negative, when they could be using them to test other patients to see if they're positive?
Wasn't one (or multiple?) country only counting people as recovered after 2 negative tests in a row following a positive infection? Putting you at >= 3 tests per 'recovery' in a time when tests are limited.
If not, whats the guideline for how long to wait after a positive test and subsequently no symptoms to call it a 'recovery'? 4 weeks from positive test to 'recovered' maybe? ~93% of US positive tests occurred in the last 10 days
Isn't that going to cause the numbers to skew in an incredibly negative fashion? The US could be sitting at 10k in recovered cases which would bring the number of active cases down significantly. Possibly influencing policy decisions?
So far, 16,000 people have died and 280,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC.
"The flu season began early this year and took off aggressively," added Schaffner. "It began prominently in the southeastern states but quickly spread. So far, there is no sign that the momentum of the annual epidemic is slowing."
No way to know for sure, but it's very possible.
How does 280,000 flu hospitalizations compare to the last 20 years? I was under the impression a few years approached one million hospitalizations.
280k does not seem out of line at all especially seeing that the flu season typically starts to go away around this time.
Around 600k last year for the entire season and it was a long season.
I wouldn't be able to say with any certainty that there's evidence that supports my claim, but it takes an extraordinary amount of mental gymnastics to suggest it's just now circulating.
I mean it was an aggressive flu season. I have no hard data other than just common sense. We have so many international airports in big cities, it's really hard to imagine not one person transmitting since January.
Definitely not for the critical & recovery #s for my country at least (Canada).. but for the total #s seems pretty similar to what MSM is reporting
Also for Iran it has listed 0 cases as serious/critical which would be absolutely false, and then it automatically throws the total count for that country in the mild category for worldwide overall numbers
Because their medical system was overwhelmed. People who can survive with the help of ventilators are not getting them. Compare the stats of Hubei province and China outside Hubei and you'll find your answer.
Doesn't help to have one of the oldest populations in the world either.
People didn’t know they were sick with new (novel) virus. People hang out, hug each other, smush lips, DON’T WASH THEIR DAMNED HANDS ENOUGH, and spittle when they talk passionately.
Tiny invisible germs spread and lived in their bodies rent free for a week or so and then made them violently ill. They began to suspect they had a problem when thousands got sick around the same time, by then, the world entire was infected. (Pandemic)
Ideally, you catch it before the smushing so only a tiny fraction of people get violently ill. Italy was not an ideal situation.
Italy are counting people who died and had the virus, not just those who died because of the virus
Thats a big difference
" But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus. On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
Thats how its supposed to be everywhere. If a person with several other diseases dies for one of them after catching corona then their death should be recorded as a result of virus, but not necessary as direct cause. After all covid weaken immune system and makes infected more susceptible for other diseases. My country doesnt do that and doesnt test enough people to keeps their numbers low before elections.
Not at all, Italy statistically has a large elderly population count compared to many other infected countries.
As you can see it is ranked 2nd in the world