In this interview, I talk to Bitcoin Quant Analyst & creator of the popular
stock to flow model, Plan₿. We discuss his new S2FX model, the upcoming
Bitcoin halving, predicted price action and the impact on miners.
Whether you agree or disagree, this prediction is not based on nothing. It's a fairly in-depth evolution of existing models. https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12
models have never been able to predict Bitcoin's future price, why should PlanB's be any different? btw he keeps changing his model. His model from last year doesn't match up with how bitcoin has performed this year (obviously because he couldn't account for a pandemic).
Well, that’s not actually true. A user on bitcointalk named Trolololo(?) was posting predictions back in 2012(?) using logarithmic regression to extrapolate price history. His prediction called for $10,000 in December 2017, and sure enough, it happened, and sailed right through to $19k. It might even have been TO THE DAY but I’d need to check the actual dates. It was with one week of accuracy. I can dig it up later if you wish.
His charts inspired azop’s rainbow charts, which inspired moonmath. All of them inspired PlanB, who added a whole new dimension to previous models.
Sure, we can say that Trolololo just got lucky, but the fact is that he accurately predicted Bitcoin’s future price several years in advance. Given that trends can be determined and extrapolated with some accuracy, who’s to say it can’t happen again?
lol look at this gullible moron who thinks PlanB is actually who he claims to be. there's a good reason why he stays anonymous. Because he isn't a hedge fund manager. Just some kid who used math to come up with magic numbers.
thats not really how it works.. if bitcoin is 20k in iran and you have no way what so ever to access that market, than its not worth 20k to you is it. in anycase yes, if it goes to 200k on all exchanges than its worth 200k, assuming you have coins on the exchange while its at 200k, or dont have all your money locked in ur wallet because the transaction fee exceeds your balance.. when btc was 20k, transaction fees went soaring, add a zero to bitcoin value, with the same network activity, we're talking about fees going from 300 to 1000$ per transaction, nobody is going to use it at this point, and most people wont even be able to use it, so there goes adoption. this is why scaling is required if you want to reach those figures and why we wont without it.
You’re comparing transaction congestion with price which is also ridiculous.
We are currently at around half the ATH and transaction fees for next block are like 2$.
Actually 2017 was great as test that fee market might actually work when bitcoin mining reward becomes small.
Yes, while shitcoiners are thinking short term, trying to outcompete bitcoin with the ridiculous idea that low fees is the important selling point for this technology people in the bitcoin community are actually worried about what will happen 100 years from now.
i dont know whats hard to understand, nobody will use btc when the tx is to high. there was never a problem of what will happen a 100 years from now. more people using btc to transact = more transactions to collect a fee from, if btc is adopted by the masses, than theres plenty of low fee transactions happening at all time to sustain mining. if you force users off chain by making it impossible to afford transacting on chain, than you also take away the transactions meant to pay the miners. if there is no more block reward, there is no incentive for providing security, its pretty simple, the model works as long as it scales, and artificially preventing it from scaling was not written in the white paper ;).
> i dont know whats hard to understand, nobody will use btc when the tx is to high.
Just think about the ridiculousness of this statement. I mean, this deserves being framed and put on a wall.
Transaction fees are only high if people do actually use it. You can’t have it both ways.
You are actually saying that there will be too many transactions competing for the space so fees will be high while at the same time saying that nobody will use it.
How fucking stupid is that? And showing us this level of stupidity and naivety like it should be self evident is something else.
> was not written in the white paper ;).
And then this...The lowest form of appeal to authority. When arguments can't stand by themselves just appeal to God Satoshi.
There were a lot of implementation details that were left out of the white paper. Should we remove Bitcoin Script as it isn't in the white paper?
And by the way, do you realize that **Satoshi wrote that 1MB block limit himself**?
Just make yourself a favor and think for yourself.
As soon as you get things sorted out go back to those same BCashers who brainwashed you with the "not in whitepaper" bullshit and educate those guys.
Or just let them keep burning money like they've been doing. I'm not sure if these people who have been working on a dead project since 2017 and still have no transactions, no hashrate, no decentralization and no price increase deserve anything else. They might be pot-committed or fundamentally broken.
Hasn't the normal typical hash rate exceeded what it was at the all time high and stayed that way?
There's faster and better computers now than there were 4 years ago. I'm sure things won't be as terrible and if we hit a peak what's to say that it wouldn't be in the 6 digits?
Yeah you're right, the hashrate doesn't change the amount of transactions processed, but it changes the efficiency of those transactions being processed.
Mining chips will be faster and improve in the future which will help the scaling out a bit.
Not to mention what it costs to move gold which has like 80 times the market cap.
That argument doesn’t make any sense.
Forget about it. Some people just don’t get it or can’t stop buying shitcoins. It’s like an addition.
? That doesn't make any sense. Price and scaling are completely independent.
Do people actually know how much it costs to move 500.000.000$ in gold?
It’s just incredible how after all the 2017 drama people are still making these absurd arguments.
The idea that we should compromise decentralization (which is the ONLY advantage this technology has) for cheaper transactions is beyond ridiculous.
Bitcoin is digital gold. There’s no competition in this space because there’s no way for any other coin to achieve that status.
Cheaper transactions can’t compete with digital gold.
in what way does bitcoin has anything to do with gold? explain that to me.
also who tf cares how much it costs to move 500million in gold, physical delivery works with weight, so the guy moving 500mil will obviously pay a shit ton. that doesnt mean the guy who's just moving a grand will have to pay hundreds of dollars to do so. with btc, as soon as the velocity exceeds the capacity, mem pool keeps pilling up and fees keeps going up, to a point where anyone that isnt holding or moving large sums effectively have their money locked. get this through your head buddy, bitcoin has nothing in common with gold on any level, its value comes from network effect, not central banks and governments buying it.
oh and edit: gold is absolute trash, which is why everyone throughout history has always been happy to relinquish it for a substitute like paper money for convenience, which introduces the very thing bitcoin tries to fight against, middlemen and trusted third parties.
the usual braindead r bitcoin answer lol. seriously if you knew anything about economics, you'd know that for something to become a store of value, it first needs to be a medium of exchange, and you'd want it to be as cheap as possible to transact with so that people actually see a use in buying it ;)
>if you knew anything about economics, you'd know that for something to become a store of value, it first needs to be a medium of exchange
It takes a lot of gaul to call someone braindead and then say this nonsense in the very next breath.