📣 Last chance to practice genesis before mainnet 📣 tl;dr Spadina Launchpad is live. Spadina genesis in 7 days! Deposit CLI audit completed by Trail of Bits EIP 2982: Serenity Phase 0 released 🚀 Announcing Spadina Launchpad As of today, the Spadina Launchpad is live 🎉 If you are unfamiliar...
Why? The amount of locked ETH is going to barely increase and I feel like this might already be priced in. Coupled with US elections pessimism, I want to understand why you think ETH will skyrocket to $1k.
Please help me understand when you say "the amount locked ETH will barely increase." What are you comparing this to currently? To the best of my knowledge there is not any real ETH locked for staking purposes. The only ETH that locked is testnet ETH which is why the price of real ETH hasn't moved. Once the deposit contract of Phase 0 goes live real ETH will be locked up and will impact the price by being removed from circulation. Additionally, ETH is still being locked in defi contracts. Both of these make a pretty good argument for a greatly increased ETH price in my opinion.
One scenario is that mostly people who are already holding ETH long term will stake anyways, so those are not really being removed from circulation. Although there is the possibility of some people deciding to acquire ETH to fund validators.
I was about to disagree until reading the second half of your comment. Indeed phase 0 is relatively unimportant compared to the other two phases and the latter ones need to be introduced ASAP.
So, I really hope they are already under full steam in getting phase I out quickly after phase 0.
Either ETC will get more hash or there'll be a new fork. It will cost less for miners than liquidating all mining assets and closing mining businesses. Some miners will refocus to other PoW chains during ETH2 roll out, but probably not much. Difficulty retargets make mining always a theater packed to the edge
Even just with DEXes there'll be a lot of volume trading tokens between PoW/PoS versions of Ethereum, a lot of fees for miners, I'd imagine
Keep on mining until at least Phase 2. And even after that there will be a need for some compute. Bottom line is in blockchain you can stake, provide liquidity to DeFi liquidity pools, sell compute resources, sell bandwidth and storage space, and probably some other stuff nobody thought of yet. Lots of stuff to do to earn.
Phase 1.5 just brings current ETH 1.x mainnet onto its own shard chain. All execution is still done on old ETH 1.x EVM. Phase 1.5 will also allow transfers between ETH1 and ETH2 tokens via smart contract on ETH 1.x shard chain. Need Phase 2 (EVM upgrade) to fully transition and move away from mining. And even then there will be transition period of dApp/user migration where you can keep mining.
Under the Howey Test, the investor must expect profits solely from the efforts of the promoter or a third party. Here, investors are doing the "efforts"/work themselves by running the validator nodes on their own computers or hardware.
I'm no lawyer but neither is Greg Colvin. Imho staking clearly does not make ETH fail the Howey test.
> Any profit comes from the efforts of a promoter or third party.
The profit does not come from the efforts of a third party. It comes from your own efforts, running a staking node. You're the one validating transactions and building a sequence of blocks, and you get paid for that.
> It is an investment of money.
It's not even an investment of money. You get paid for doing work. The money is there so the protocol can slash you if you misbehave. If I were to do some kind of contract work for you, and deposited money somewhere that I would lose if I didn't hold up my end of the deal, that money would not be an investment for me.
The IRS treats mining as work, too. You don't pay capital gains on your mining income. You get paid for your work and owe regular income tax. When people start doing taxes on staking gains, I bet their excess ETH will also count as regular income.
If anyone has made an investment it's ETH holders who aren't staking, but just hoping for ETH to go up. But the government has already decided that if ETH ever was a security, it's not anymore, because now it's so decentralized it's really a commodity.