We should retest these samples to make sure they aren’t false positives, and sequence them so that we can place them in a phylogenetic tree.
The tricky part for the non-China theories is the homology to pangolin- and bat-derived sequences.
RT @Laurie_Garrett: Researchers in Paris say analysis of samples from 2 individuals hospitalized on Dec 2, 2019 shows they had #COVID19. Neither had traveled outside of France recently, & never to China. This pushes back the earliest non-Chinese case by well over a month.
As more early covid-19 patients revealed, the real question is why Europe and the US didn't detect this novel virus first? No suspicion, no warning, no emergency procedures whatsoever? It basically has nothing to do with weather China covered it up or not.
It has everything to do with your own country's medical system and how prepared they were for an unknown contagious disease outbreak.
Mainland Chinese represent the most prolific world travellers. Millions pass through major tourist destinations daily and this was very much the case last November and December (as it always was). Between the presenting of patient zero on November 17 and this case in France OVER A MONTH LATER, you could resaonable assume that hundreds of thousands of mainland Chinese travellers (some clearly asymptomatic carriers after passing through several major Chinese airports) had already reached Paris by that time.
This headline is not surprising in the least. In gaining an understanding of an epidemic, EVERY hour is a critical part of the puzzle to be solved. Everything can change in a week, let alone a whole month.
I know someone who works at the Airport in Calgary, they told me that in December something ran through there that was respiratory in nature, felt like pneumonia for them for around 4-5 days before they were able to move around their apartment with any sort of energy.
Have another friend who lives in Saskatoon who had damn near covid-19 symptoms in early January, had a fever that kept coming back, coughing, vomiting due to the coughing, sore body, lasted a couple of weeks for them, had instances where they couldn’t breathe, had seen the dr multiple times and they had just told them it was pneumonia and wouldn’t admit them, despite the breathing problems.
COVID-19 definitely slipped out and spread a bit before it was noticed unfortunately, no guarantee these instances were covid-19 mind you, but they definitely fit the bill.
It groups COVID-19 to 3 major strains A, B, C. A has the most resemblance to the BAT virus genome and was found on the US, Australia, and South China. B was the major strain in Wuhan. By the mutation cycle, it estimates that the first bat to human transmission occurs between 9/2019–12/2019 and there seems to be a possibility for A group to be in the US.
In June,there is also an unknown cause of respiratory virus outbreak at Virginia , which has sickened 63 residents and killing 3. Sick residents had symptoms such as coughs, fevers and pneumonia. All of this has raised some concern recently.
This is a really interesting finding. I wonder how much early patients like this contributed to the outbreak, and how much of it is due to the many more sick people who likely arrived later on.
I would warn people that if you got sick in December/January, this piece of news doesn't mean you had COVID-19 and are now immune. These diseases spread exponentially, which means that once outbreaks become big, they can grow very fast. However, it also means that at the beginning, they can be very small for an extended period.
Say the average COVID-19 patient infects 3 others, and does so 7 days after being infected. Then if one patient arrives in France, after 21 days there will still only be 27 and after two months there will still only be 5000 (0.007% of the total population of France). By contrast, 2-8 million people in France get the flu each year.
If you were sick in late March/April, you most likely had coronavirus. If you were sick in late February/early March, it could go either way. But if you were sick in December, January, or early February, you almost certainly had the flu and should assume so unless proven otherwise.
This is true even if you had an unusually bad flu or felt really weird. Even if 1% of flu cases are "really weird" (probably it's higher, but whatever), then in January and early February the incidence of really weird flu was almost certainly much higher than the incidence of coronavirus.
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US intelligence was flagging an epidemic of anomalous pneumonia in China as early as November 2019, implying that it was in circulation some months earlier, say September. Given the infectiousness of covid, the implications are that it had spread to the rest of the world long before the Wuhan publicity. It would have been diagnosed as pneumonia or influenza, or both.
Implication is widespread existence within world populations, questioning the value of lock-downs. On this line, there is an excellent article by virologist Dr John Lee in the 2 May Spectator, unfortunately pay-walled. He addresses the question of why diseases tend to peter out, long before apparent herd immunity levels are achieved. His argument draws on evolution.
Parasites which kill their host do not prosper. SARS-COV-2 is highly variable - he suggest that 2000 serotypes have been identified - and some of those strains will be relatively benign. A parasite prospers by evolving into a symptom-free but still infectious form, at which point herd immunity arsies and the target population does well. By concentrating the virulent form in hospitals and preventing the spread of the benign one, we slow down the emergence of this natural vaccine.
I had a persistent dry cough back in late November that lasted through early February. The doctor said it wasn't the flu or bacterial. Said to come back if it got worse. The only other symptom was high anxiety which is chalked up to quitting my job at the time. When the cough wet away, so did the anxiety.
I'm still not sure if I had covid or not I've never had those symptoms before.
I swear before covid was even announced my wife and I had the worse flu in our lives. Both of us were extremely fatigued felt sick to our stomachs had breathing issues and fevers along with gastro symptoms and sore throats. Doctors told us to rest up and that there was a nasty bug going around. We felt this way for almost two weeks as well. This was the end of October and in Canada.
Our whole warehouse at work got it then about two months later covid was announced. It was kind of freaky.
My household in Ontario got sick in February, no stomach issues but fever, sore throat, cough. It's the first time I've taken off work in like a decade for being sick (for something that wasn't life threatening). We had a birthday party for my son shortly before at one of those indoor playground places so I'm pretty sure somebody brought it there (either a member of our party or the party that overlapped half the time with ours).
And then the two people I talk to most at work got sick and ended up taking days off but nobody else did, despite being an open office... Which kinda makes me thing it wasn't it, but since asymptomatic cases seem to be quite high I guess it could have been.
Wife and I got about the same thing just after Christmas, now that there is mention of different strains and not even the same symptoms for everyone. Made us wonder if it was possible that we couldve had it prior to being a huge thing for the last few days too. Cant even get tested for having/had it in SW Ontario if you feel healthy at the moment. We've been distancing like crazy since begining of March, but leaves you wondering if you are either one of these silent carriers, or perhaps have antibodies. Our son never did catch what we had at the time either.
Same here. Wife and I both had flu vaccines, but both got flu like symptoms twice during the whole month of January. We were in France and left (connecting through Charles de Gaul in Paris where we had a 6 hour layover) on Dec 27th. My wife had fever like I’ve never seen her have, and is still coughing to this day. She tested negative for strep. But there were no tests available when she was sick if you hadn’t been to China. She thought she was going to have to go to ER but ended up holding out for her normal doctor.
At the beginning of February we went to aspen, which a few weeks later became a hotspot.
Anyway, France and California have both had test results that indicate coronavirus was present before originally thought. I’m sure when they go back, other countries will find similar results.
October is too early. Genetic analyses place the origin of the virus in late November, with the 95% confidence that the origin lies between early November and early December.
The flu can be really bad, and that sounds like a typical bad flu.
Yeah I got the worst flu of my life in jan
For the first time ever I wasn't able to breathe properly from a sore throat felt like i was choking for 3-4 days and forcing air in while having high temperatures.
there was no coughing though so I doubt it was Corona
This French team in a Paris hospital decided to retroactively go through respiratory sample collected from ICU patients meeting certain SARS-COV-2 related symptoms between Dec 2nd and Jan 16th. Tests used were the negative RT-PCR tests, confirmed by the Charite Protocol.
One positive test, a 42 year old patient admitted to ICU on December 27 2019, discharged December 29,2019. His occupation is that of a fishmonger and he has some preexisting medical conditions: asthma and type II diabetes. His last trip out of France was to Algeria in August 2019.
There are several points raised:
clinical symptoms and radiological scans of the patient show similarities to documented SARS-COV-2 symptoms
the team is not able to completely rule out false negative results due to the sensitivity of the RT-PCR tests and possible damage from storage, although the team attempted to minimize errors via their methodology
absence of a link with China and the lack of recent travel seems to indicate that SARS-COV-2 was already spreading in France at the end of December, 2019
this case is further evidence that there may be many unidentified/asymptomatic patients spreading the pandemic before January
models used to predict SARS-COV-2 propagation might be inaccurate and need to be adjusted to account for this
Strange that i didn't see anything that supports what you've claimed…and i'm Chinese. Certainly there's been some people shouting that this virus came from the US (which personally i think is bullshit), but nothing about France. Actually, reddit seems to believe that state media has been pushing stories about how covid originates from Italy or Japan, but that's also something i did not see in China.
Pour les amis français…ne croyez pas ce qu'il dit. Personne en Chine ne pense que le coronavirus vient de la France.
Well you could certainly argue that this is state media pushing a French origin story but personally i wouldn't consider it to be the case because:
1. They are simply citing Les Echos, which talked about a research result from the institue of Pasteur;
2. That strain they talked about were analyzed using data from February, which is three months later than the first case in Wuhan;
3. Even if the time match, the fact that it seemed to be an independent strain means that it neither proved that the virus in France was oroginated in China, nor the other way around.;
4. All the opinions that appeared in this article was "according to Les Echos".
However i could not say that they told the truth because i haven't read the original story published by Les Echos. But of course i cannot say that they lied, either.
I think it would be interesting though if we could try to identify the strain which the sample of 27 Dec belongs to.
D'abord la plupart de chinois ne mange jamais des chauve-souris. Et puis, tout le monde peut manger ce qu'ils veulent manger. (Sauf les animals rares) C'est la condition sanitaire qui est important. Et c'est ça le problème de mon pays. Ne penses pas que te sera supérieur parce tu ne manges pas des choses "dégueulasse", tu ne l'es pas.
Qu'est ce que tu viens de putain de dire à propos de nos bérets-baguette petit batard? Je vais te faire savoir que j'ai validé mon DESS en boulangerie en tant que major de promo et que j'ai été impliqué dans les plus grands bombardements de bérets-baguette de l'histoire de l'humanité avec 300 libérations de boulangeries au pain de mie à mon actif. Je suis entraîné dans les tactiques de combats viennoises, et je suis le plus grand pétrisseur de l'histoire de l'humanité. Tu n'es rien d'autre pour moi qu'une autre tranche de pain de mie à éradiquer, je vais te faire tremper dans du lait jusqu'à ce qu'on ne puisse plus te retrouver. Note mes putains de mots bordel de merde. Tu penses pouvoir t'en sortir avec ton malparler balancé sur les internet ? Pense encore, baiseur. Pendant que nous parlons j'ai mis sur le coup tous les pétrisseurs du monde retranchés dans leurs boulangeries bobo en centre ville des capitales barbares, attend toi à des représailles eclaires . L'éclair qui éradique le goût de toutes ces tranches de pain de mie toasté moisie que ces pathétiques engeances de Satan anglo-saxonnes osent appeler "bread". T'es putain de mort, gamin. Je peux être partout, à n'importe quel moment, et je peux te pétrir à main nues jusqu'à ce que tu ne puisses plus prononcer le mot "chocolatine". Non seulement je dispose d'un entraînement intensif dans la cuisson du pain, mais je dispose des meilleurs fours développés par l'ordre des bérets-baguette, et j'en utiliserai le feu purificateur pour éradiquer à jamais tes pratiques culinaires barbares de la face de la Terre. Si seulement tu avais connu l'étendue de mon amour du terroir avant de faire le malin comme ça, peut être que tu aurais tourné 7 fois ta langue dans ta bouche avant de taper sur ton clavier. Mais tu n' as pas pu, tu ne l'as pas fait, et maintenant ça sera 1 euro 50 la tradition pour toi, bachibouzouk. Je vais refaire une fournée de croissants natures rien que pour toi, et tu vas t'etouffer avec. Tu es putain de mort, gamin.
Courtesy of /u/Glorounet
> Most people who got the virus in the east of France got it from travelling to Italy or other similar connections, but they found a strain in the north of France that has been present since at least February and which they can't explain.
Northwestern Italy that borders France has a huge chinese presence, they have factories there to make luxury goods under Italian brand names which they can stamp “made in Italy”. These chinese factories hire workers from China. These workers traveled back to China for chinese new year and guess where is the central transportation hub that many of these workers would have travelled through? Wuhan 😉
I'm not sure but I believe the study only shows the virus was circulating prior to the Mulhouse cluster. It doesn't say the origin of a strain could be local. I think I read that the virus muted in many different strains and, as it came in France from different sources, it's not abnormal that we find different strains in the territory. It's likely virus started to spread in China before November and soon enough came to different countries unnoticed.
On the radio france article they mentioned that they suspecthis wife as vector, she works at a sushi stall alongside french-chinese. Theyll probably investigate that further. But Paris also has(had) millions of visitors each year, also chinese (anyone remember that chinese woman from wuhan bragging how she dodged the tests at the french airport with fever supressing meds?). Doubt she was the only one willing to take meds in order not to miss their trip, even before Covid-19 really was a thing.
> she works at a sushi stall alongside french-chinese.
Nope. She works at a supermarket fish counter where she is suspected to have been vicitim of asymptomatic infection.
A sushi stall happens to be in the vicinity of the fish counter and people with Chinese origins work there. But there is no evidence these people had traveled to/from China and there is no evidence they were involved in this case. Do not dismiss that the first idea was that this woman had been infected from touching fishes coming from China, until proven that all fishes sold come from France.
These ideas are dismissing the obvious possibility that a customer could have transmitted the disease, that she could have been infected while she was not at work and that she probably infected other people while working.
I’m in the Bay Area, California. And we were all sick as fuck in late January. Nobody I knew died, but we all think we had “it” amongst our friend/family group
Edit: I work in Silicon Valley, the first major hot spot
In Bydgoszcz, Poland we also were sick for an unusually long time (2-3 weeks) in mid February. My kids' preschool was almost empty as almost all the kids had some stomach issues or fever. Adults (parents and neighbours) had flu-like symptoms that stayed longer than a typical flu. Could be just ever so slightly mutated flu, or could be the early covid before mutations. Who knows..
Do you always try to attack the messenger when you have no answers to prove your point? I'm seeing this is the pattern whenever people that love to hate China are confronted with the contradictory.
Here in Brazil it's kinda cold right now tho.
Nice try China troll. China is going to pay for their lack of openness. They held information to hoard supplies so the rest of the world can go fuck itself. Turns out foreign policy around the world is about to fuck China back
The thing is that open governments will say "I don't know" if they don't know the origin to something, and point to scientists to lead the way in doing the research unfettered.
They also accept help and offer help in doing the research necessary to discover the origin. Finding the origin will help the world in the fight against a future pandemic. The. World. How big of a hero is the country that shows willingness to defend the people in the future?
On the other side, what open governments do not do is they do not raise suspicions against black people, united states, europe, or just anyone without proof.
They also don't throw out doctors out of windows for criticising the response like in russia, or imprison them like they do in china.
I hope you're staying safe, and I hope that if you are in danger from covid, a danger that can be avoided with PPE, that you have the chance to speak up and save your own life as well as those in the same circumstances around you.
>The thing is that open governments will say "I don't know" if they don't know the origin to something, and point to scientists to lead the way in doing the research unfettered.
They also accept help and offer help in doing the research necessary to discover the origin. Finding the origin will help the world in the fight against a future pandemic. The. World. How big of a hero is the country that shows willingness to defend the people in the future?
That's literally what China did. The pandemic started in december, in january the virus genoma was already known, hxh transmission was said to be possible (which in later january they found evidence for it), the WHO was alerted and Wuhan was already in lockdown. What else do you demand?
Also funny that in the so called free world we had lots of cases of bad preparation and Boris Johnsons, Trumps and Bolsonaros failing to tackle the virus even with anticipation. How did that work for our "open" governments?
> On the other side, what open governments do not do is they do not raise suspicions against black people, united states, europe, or just anyone without proof.
And neither did the chinese government. No one on the chinese government blamed africans and 1 guy known for crazy conspiracy posting blamed it on americans, just like some american senators did to China. It was never the chinese government tho.
Why the censorship then? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/chinese-doctor-Li-Wenliang-coronavirus.html
And why the resistance of china to let scientists from WHO research the origins?
Those are direct evidence of exactly the opposite of what you say. This is hiding and resisting and obfuscating.
Wuhan did do one great thing though, they sent a team of doctors to Italy to help. Whether that’s China to thank or the wuhan province I don’t know.
I also don’t know whether sending of gear to other countries was great of china because most of it was faulty and couldn’t be used, but that might be viewed as a positive.
Right now the current knowledge points to a wetmarket in wuhan being the origin, and chinas resistance to open up in regards to do better research into the origin means that will stay as the best picture we have.
Which would be god awful if that then isn’t the true origin because we could find out the truth if china wasn’t so stubbornly stupid about how they’re handling this on an international level.
If it is the truth, then there’s no change anyway. The current situation is that wetmarkets and meatfarming is seriously defunct and a vector for pandemics in many countries.
The communist party keeps up this charade of face saving because they don’t realise that there is no one to blame for the pandemic specifically. We can though discover how to better protect the world against future pandemics with open research.
But because they think they need to save face, they are resisting, but it is the resisting everyone is angry about and protesting.
There is no saving face, it’s about acknowledging truth and working for a better future, something I hope the chinese people would value, if not the communist party.
China owns way too much foreign currency. I wouldn’t hold my breath on too much punishment. The economic warfare they could unleash would be devastating to the west. Especially the US.
Suez crisis. What the US did to the UK.
Every empire has its bluff called eventually. In 1957, when Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal, Israel invaded Sinai alongside French and British forces. But President Dwight D. Eisenhower, who needed Arab support against the Soviets, insisted on a retreat and threatened to sell American reserves of the British pound if they didn’t concede the territory back to Egypt. Everybody learned who was really in charge. The loss of the canal mattered infinitely less than the demonstration that the British and French no longer possessed the ability to control foreign territories at will.
Yes it is, they went back through 40+ patients from December and retested all their samples based on current knowledge and current tests. There were a number of other "maybes", but were rejected because their testing standards refused anything less than a guaranteed result.
I know that. I'm just arguing it's hard to recognize and track a new virus and that, id anything, the chinese were good on it and didn't hide nor were slow, it's just how scientific evidence works. If this virus originated in the US, for example, the world would be in an even worse state.
Viruses don't get recognised the first time they show up. It's not like they have little COVID19 labels printed in them, along with 'made in China'. It got recognised in China because they suddenly got in influx of patients showing similar symptoms. Isolated cases like this just get labelled as a common flu-like illness, because we can't and don't identify and test every single virus. The hospital's job primarily is to keep the patient alive and treat his symptoms, like pneumonia.
You might want to reconsider your stance on this. Politics aside for the moment and even taking the US completely out of the picture entirely, this is not the tirst time China has had to deal with a novel coronavirus outbreak. The last time was supposed to teach it and the WHO enough to be able to prevent it from happening again. China dropped the ball then and failed to alert anyone to include the WHO, in a timely manner. It was something everyone regretted and vowed to not let happen again. And it totally happened again, only this time the virus was mucb more virulent and many more people were affected by and died from it.
Had it originated in the US, even with Trump as president, the world would have known about it as soon as the US did. There are foreign news agencies in the US from all over the world who's reporters in the US would have been there to get to the bottom of it.
That is not the case in China where media is much more strictly controlled.
I'll just leave this here.
> CNN and other news outlets have reported that the President's daily intelligence briefing included information about the coronavirus outbreak in China and its potential to spread to the United States as early as January 3.
I sure as heck didn't hear about it as early as January 3 from the US.
As soon as China had evidence of hxh transmissio they gave it to the WHO. The virus was identified in january and hxh transmission was said to be known on january. Not sure exactly what they were hiding.
Btw, China droped thr ball before, that's why this time they didn't and the virus which started an outbreak in december was already known in january. The world was alerted about it and even lockdowns took place in january. Other countries, like the US, even knowing beforehand didn't do anything. So again, imagine it happening in the US.
> as soon as the US did.
possibly, but since Trump had already fired his pandemic team, and refused to listen to any of his briefings, and ignored and downplayed the virus for 2 months, thats still no guarantee that there would have been any formal recognition of the disease or its spread any faster than China did.
you did misread, you and so many others it seems. no doctor attempted to warn the world and was threatened and imprisoned. In fact no reported whistle blower ever had info WHO did not already have. Unless you can show otherwise.
China suppressed doctors from spreading the information domestically.
China didn't imprison them, they were called to explain over dharing fakenews (news with no evidence) which turned to be proven correctly. They were still free to do whatever they wanted and, 1 day after he had shared things through "whatsapp" the chinese authorities already had informed the WHO and the population about the virus.
I had something in December that was so not normal I made my Dr give me a full checkup with bloodwork and everything. Obviously nothing was "wrong" with me but I would love to know if it was the virus. My husband is a pilot and brings all the fun illnesses home with him
I've always found it hard to believe that in the age of international air travel that once the first case spread it that it was not half way around the world by the next week. Wuhan airport is fairly large and had daily flights to many major hubs all over the world.
This is the thing. Even if China had acted right away, with air travel and asymptomatic transmission viruses can get all over the world undetected within weeks. And I honestly have to ask even with earlier warning, would countries have acted swiftly and firmly enough to keep it out? I don't think we would have. But we likely will after this.
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