RT @aginnt: “The researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.”
Implied est IFR 0.2%.
Side note: half showed now symptoms within two weeks of testing.
RT @MyEtherplan: 6% pop infected x 2.52 avg household size = 15% Miami HH have SARS-Cov-2 inside (maybe higher b/c latino HH are larger at 3.25).
This means 15% of 2.4m HH in Miami metro, which have 6.16m residents, are still contaminating each other, generating thousands of new cases per day. https://t.co/gfMxzY1wiB
Miami Dade total population is around 2.7 million. That means 6% is around 160,000 people. However some stats say only about 11,000 reported cases. That’s a huge difference. That tells me a bunch of people were exposed and/or infected but without symptoms (or symptoms so minor they didn’t get tested)
With 160,000 people having been exposed, and less than 300 deaths, that’s about a 0.19% death rate per exposed person.
> or symptoms so minor they didn’t get tested
I think this is the most likely.
But I know several people that had "a cold" or "the flu or something" in February and early March. Some were "pretty sick" and went to the doctor and tested negative for flu and were told "you must have some sort of bug...".
I know one person that was sick as a dog in late *January* that regularly has contact with Chinese "tourists" (to be fair they are wealthy and own homes here on the coast calling the "tourists" is silly).
None of this means anything of course, the negative flu tests with the symptoms they had is very interesting though, but it does make me wonder just how long we've had isolated cases.
While the lower death rate is good news this also means it is much more infectious and many infected are unaware. This is bad news because it will be almost impossible to bring under control without a vaccine.
Sshhh...be careful with the phrase "good news", really stirs some people up.
Someone will chip in with how asymptomatic cases are actually worse, and how the death toll isn't calculated properly...but no, I'm with you, it's wonderful news that it's looking like this virus is apparently much less deadly than expected.
We can assume almost everywhere is missing 10x the reported cases, like ny with 200k confirmed, but 2.7m infected extrapolated from the antibody tests. It is really hard to test people and that can play into conspiracies. Millions overall are most certainly undiagnosed and were still trying to improve
There are so many misconceptions when dealing with these antibody test.
The test Miami used was ~90% specific, and they found only 6% prevalence. Every single result could have been a false positive.
People are so confused about when IgG, and IgM are detectable, they are detectable from 7-20 days after infection. The average time to show symptoms is 4-5 days, most people get the PCR test a week after they are infected.
Look at what happened on the Diamond princess. The Cruise started on Jan. 20th, the boat was quarantined on Feb 4th. The majority of infections happened before feb. 4th. On Feb 19th 621 people were PCR positive for the virus and ZERO were dead. It took 16 Days from the start of their quarantine for 2 people to die. It took 26 Days from the start of the quarantine for 7 people to die.
On march 1st everyone was let off the boat, and not until 70 Days after quarantine start (feb 4) did the 14th person die on April 14.
You absolutely cannot take today's total deaths and divide them by the ~6% prevalence, it will significantly underestimate the IFR%. Even the Flawed Santa Clara study used a predicted death estimate 3 weeks from the time the antibody test was taken to calculate their predicted IFR%.
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There is no hiding from it. Something that infects as easy as covid is our new reality. That's why people have said it's like the flu and the flu kills 300-500k every year and we don't shut down half the world for it.
Fortunately, participants in this study were selected through a very good random process, meaning we don't need to worry about this being a biased sample:
To find test subjects, researchers partnered with Florida Power & Light to randomly generate phone numbers in a cross-section of the community. UM researchers arrange the tests with those who agree to do it. There are 10 drive-thru testing locations, usually libraries, where Miami-Dade Fire Rescue personnel wearing full protective suits take blood samples through car windows...
Most people agree to help. “It’s been a really positive response,” said Natasha Schaefer Solle, an assistant professor with the University of Miami who is overseeing field collection. “The first day, only 40 people didn’t show up. That’s pretty great in the research world.”
My understanding is the test used may have only had around 90% specificity, which would make these results pretty unreliable. This is much better sampling than the Stanford study, but it was not perfect as the whole sample actually wasn’t random. Per another article only like 85% was random. The other 15% was part of an early test group that was selected and was not random. There are still issues with this, but we are getting better.
It depends how you define symptoms. There are some truly asymptomatic, but up to 50 percent have mild symptoms they likely didn’t notice or forgot about such as stuffy nose or a sore throat for a day. Symptoms also keep getting added, so now stomach issues could be one symptom. Would people remember if they had a stomach ache or diarrhea for a day? Probably not.
They are finding this everywhere. Cuomo says 21% of NYC has antibodies.
It means this virus has been spreading for a long time. And it also means the penetration in the community is such that there is no way we can stop this. Herd immunity or a vaccine are the only endgames.
" About 6 percent of Miami-Dade’s population — about 165,000 residents — have antibodies indicating a past infection by the novel coronavirus, dwarfing the state health department’s tally of about 10,600 cases, according to preliminary study results announced by University of Miami researchers Friday."