It would be nice to know. I wish they would publish the actual data as well as the analysis. The article says the virus itself, and according to this information from Harvard Medical, false positives are a bit more rare in the virus testing:
Precisely what I was wondering. I mean, I'd be thrilled if 96% of cases present with absolutely no symptoms... but it's quite possible this is the calm before the storm and 2-3 weeks from now a large portion of those people are going to be severely ill.
For me, this just highlights that we need studies like this and more specific information. So far, age and chronic condition history are the biggest indicators of vulnerability, so it would really help if studies like these released that information as well.
About to baselessly speculate here, but is it possible that (assuming the test figures are accurate) there are either slightly different strains or different viral loads that might be less harmful? And these prisons more or less got the goldilocks version of the disease.
Because we don't really know and are trying to play it safe. What if these are false positives? What if this one small sample isn't representative of the population as a whole. What if they just haven't shown symptoms yet
I think in the end it's going to be between .2% and .5%. Still considerably worse than the flu in sheer numbers of killed, but thankfully it really seems to spare the young. In life years lost it might end up being similar.
Bottom line is more than likely the entire US is infected to a certain point and since we have only tested less than 1% of the population. And the test are not exactly accurate now they are politi5ganes being played on both sides with our health on the line.
You'd have to look it up yourself; but I believe a vast majority of the deaths/serious cases of COVID-19 had pre-existing conditions (ages 65+, lung disease, asthma, heart conditions, cancer, immunocompromosed by chemotherapy/HIV/AIDS/etc, diabetes, kidney failure, etc).
Generally(!!) if you're young, healthy, and don't have any pre-existing health conditions, COVID shouldn't have much more of an affect on you than the flu.
In Italy 98.8% of covid deaths had at least one major pathology. 48% had at least three. The main ones were hypertension, obesity/ morbid obesity, and diabetes. Not hard to see why Americans might be hard hit.
They were doing aggressive triage, right? Were those criteria in the triage? It could be feedback that people with other issues were not expected to recover as well so they are not prioritized in treatment.
It is nice to base definitive conclusions off a headline of a blog post about this one study that we read in an online forum, likely chosen out of confirmation bias.
Peer review is such a pain in the ass.