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Source: gavinandresen.ninja ·
This is a price chart for one of the top-25 cryptocurrencies, from Jun 2019 to May 2020: And here is another coin: One of them is Iota, which had a technical problem that resulted in no transactions confirming from February 12 until March 10. The... | Gavin Andresen | Writings about geeky stuff
Santi - @santisiri
4 months ago
RT @josephdelong: This short blog post by @gavinandresen blew my mind https://t.co/4oln8rmM4D
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191
zooko - @zooko
4 months ago
RT @GeukensMathieu: "It’s not about the tech (yet?)" by Gavin Andresen
https://t.co/7wFPUlbukW
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22
Brian Armstrong - @brian_armstrong
4 months ago
RT @josephdelong: This short blog post by @gavinandresen blew my mind https://t.co/4oln8rmM4D
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98
Gavin Andresen - @gavinandresen
4 months ago
RT @josephdelong: This short blog post by @gavinandresen blew my mind https://t.co/4oln8rmM4D
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47
Deadbeat1000
4 months ago
Too bad Gavin didn't choose to compare BSV chart against ZCash & Iota. It's not like there is a real demand or future for ZCash or Iota.
5
energetictree
4 months ago
I think Gavin still “butt-hurt” with Craig, to be left in the crowd like an idiot, well I would.
3
zhell_
BSVapps.Net - the BitCoin appstore - onchain & 3 months ago
yet offline he will still answer to anyone asking that craig is satoshi, so I think he is indeed hurt by craig letting him be attacked but still admits that craig is satoshi
3
polagon
Silver | QC: CC 284, REQ 34, ETH 32 | VET 149 | Tr 4 months ago
It all about the tech and the superiority of BCASH! Craig is Satoshi! lol, that guy!
1
WeaponizedMath
4 months ago
This video is generally used to show how Steve Jobs was tactful at the right times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQadOr9B7Qc
It also shows that the best tech doesn't always win. Customer service, usability, accessibility, design, user experience all of those things matter.
1
mcgravier
4 months ago
It's probably because... Nobody uses IOTA. All speculation happens on exchanges and speculators aren't even remotely interested in doing real transactions over IOTA chain. No wonder why they weren't bothered by crippled state for so long
1
Ant-n
4 months ago
> It’s probably because... Nobody uses IOTA. All speculation happens on exchanges and speculators aren’t even remotely interested in doing real transactions over IOTA chain. No wonder why they weren’t bothered by crippled state for so long
That mirror very well the situation with BTC.
1
mcgravier
4 months ago
That wouldn't be surprising. What is surprising is that ETH is processing 3x more transactions than BTC, and still has 7x less market cap. It seems, that market is utterly derailed from foundamentals.
1
Deeply_alarming
Silver | QC: CC 59 | IOTA 40 4 months ago
A dev who realize that tech is not everything in a project, breaking news
2
cinnapear
Silver | QC: CC 794, BCH 240, BTC 54 | NANO 229 | 4 months ago
Until onramps and offramps are more prevalent and businesses start taking advantage of crypto utility, speculation will remain the defining factor in every coin's price. Otherwise we'd see coins like Nano nearer the top, Iota would have dropped position when it stopped working, etc.
When utility finally does become a majority factor, the top ten will look quite a bit different.
0
milkonyourmustache
4 months ago
IOTA has lost a lot of its market cap relative to other cryptos, it hasn't fallen off the cliff but confidence has certainly dropped.
1
Eislemike
4 months ago
Boy Alt Coiners have gotten salty as shit. It’s like walking into an old folks home during corona up in here.
6
willedandagreed
Platinum | QC: BCH 135 4 months ago
And the biggest scam of all is leading it. "Bank the unbanked" lol
2
cr0ft
Platinum | QC: BCH 648, CC 572, ETH 211 | r/Politi 4 months ago
A relative few cryptos are actually used for stuff. Most are entirely hype driven.
But the idea of the cryptocurrency revolution is nowhere to be found, not even in here. All people talk about is speculating.
And honestly, I don't think the idea of a cryptocurrency revolution is workable anyway. It's not the fact that fiat money is shit and easily exploitable, printable and otherwise crap that's the problem - capitalism is the problem, and cryptocurrencies are still capitalist to say the least.
5
madsudaca
Silver | QC: CC 30 | NANO 68 4 months ago
Damn capitalism, always ruining everything.
​
/s
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MadCybertist
I ban people. 4 months ago
That discussion is so sad lol. They just can’t help themselves but cry about Bitcoin in every post.... even when it is completely irrelevant.
1
DylanKid
4 months ago
If it was about the tech we would see ETH number 1
edit: downvotes but no rebuttals. Too much salt.
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gizram84
4 months ago
Personally, I would never invest or use a cryptocurrency that had a centralized pre-mine, or one that hard forked to censor a tx they didn't like, despite the protocol working as designed. Eth has done both of those things.
I support Bitcoin for the fundamentals. Bitcoin may not be the fastest, or the cheapest, but it is the most secure, it is the only cryptocurrency that had a truly fair launch, and it has proven that the users can reject a hard fork that the miners wanted to shove down our throats. That is true decentralization.
1
jmabbz
4 months ago
Adoption will be about the tech but also about good marketting and a network effect. Pre adoption price will not generally be about the tech. Not every good project has a future and plenty of legitimately brilliant ideas are bad investments. There is also a lot of fluff and hype driven nonsense which will moon before your more solid choice.
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Raymikqwer
Silver | QC: CC 594 | IOTA 172 | TraderSubs 81 4 months ago
Technical merit doesn't matter in crypto. Hype sells, and also bag holders rarely fully capitulate which somewhat gives a floor to the price.
Iota has abandoned the data market place, Qubic, failed to deliver coordicide years after it first claimed. But it still floats around near the top 20. They could turn it off for another month and OPs charts still wouldn’t diverge.
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bilbinadonna
4 months ago
Lol, IOTA shit the bed and is still worth more than a small nation. The state of this market!
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Raymikqwer
Silver | QC: CC 594 | IOTA 172 | TraderSubs 81 4 months ago
Lol, eloquently put. Mad isn’t it...
1
bcountry17
Crypto God | QC: IOTA 142 4 months ago
Won’t argue with iota previously setting too-broad of goals. However, with a top 20 littered with money grabs and community ghost towns, someone felt the need to step outside the top 20 to criticize a project with active development, active academic research, active and diverse world-wide community, innovative ideas, real-world vision, and fascinating PoC’s. Ok.
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genius3edition
Gold | QC: CC 21, DASH 16 4 months ago
> However, with a top 20 littered with money grabs and community ghost towns,
No coin in the top 20 is broken like IOTA. IOTA was a terrible coin from launch which fooled VW, BOSH etc.
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Subterfuge69
Tin 4 months ago
This is the same spiel any crypto fanboy will give you in regards to their favorite coin. To the rest of the world it just looks like a sales man trying to shill their Ponzi scheme. Iota completely and utterly failed for a month straight. It will never earn that trust back.
0
bitcoinisdoomed
Redditor for less than 2 weeks 4 months ago
The so called crypto traders don't give a shit about the fundamentals of the coin they trade but eventually they will. Market will force their hand. The idiots only think in terms of buy/sell/long/short xyz coin instead of thinking in terms of scalability/privacy/featues offered by the coin.
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stepanmedvedev
Redditor for 1 months. 4 months ago
Monero is better than Zcash. Though they're both about privacy, xmr devs are sooo hardworking (just check the recent update)
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malte86
Redditor for 2 months. 4 months ago
Dandelion stuff? Though I can't understand tech sides of it, but the general idea behind it and actual implementation there is outstanding, indeed.
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Spacesider
Platinum | QC: CC 136, ETH 37, BTC 16 | TraderSubs 4 months ago
Charts like this are really stupid, cherry picked a rally in the middle of 2019 as a starting point.
0
Voidward
Gold | QC: CC 81, BTC 29 4 months ago
I've actually gotten quite pessimistic on crypto. BTC is not doing what it was designed for. Nothing is really posing a threat to banks. The speed of development is depressing.
That being said, I still make money speculating on speculative assets. Not sure any of this shit is worth more than the hype it can generate.
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genius3edition
Gold | QC: CC 21, DASH 16 4 months ago
> Nothing is really posing a threat to banks.
Crypto was never going going to threaten banks before the fiat system implodes. It's still too early.
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vegasluna
Platinum | QC: ETH 200, CC 107, BTC 35 | TraderSub 4 months ago
I think they have to wait to upgrade BTC until PoS is the go to leading technology replacing the early adopter PoW technology.
Once that happens, then can do a big upgrade that leaves a dead chain behind.
Otherwise, poloniex will post the old chain and some dood with a lot money and nothing better to do will start pushing a bitcoin classic shiatcoin .
0
madsudaca
Silver | QC: CC 30 | NANO 68 4 months ago
Maybe the problem is unreasonable expectations.
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PublicDiscourse
Gold | QC: ETH 41 | TraderSubs 43 4 months ago
I think of crypto’s history and trajectory relative to the history of money as a social technology that is as old as civilization itself.
In that context, crypto has accomplished an enormous amount in a very short period of time.
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solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
Find a better currency in the world today. Something that you cannot manipulate like fiat currencies, but still transfer across the globe within minutes & for a small fee.
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Gold is the solution to the first one, fiat is the solution to the second, but they both have major flaws which cannot be fixed. Try transfering gold across the globe within a couple of minutes. Try holding on to fiat without investing it is some way, you will lose all your wealth with time. The FED is printing money faster than ever before... Look up brazil, venezuela, argentina and their inflation, this is going to happen in the US too. 0% interesetrates, FED is allowed to print infinite money & print money faster than ever.. people are getting "stimulus checks" and "free money" It is not sustainable.
​
You dont know what you are talking about..
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buddykire
Tin 4 months ago
Ownership of gold can be trasferred in seconds with no fees. The infratructure for this is getting better every year. Sure, not physical gold, but you dont own the bitcoin directly either, its on the blockchain.
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solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
When i get my digital bitcoin on my own offline wallet, its equal to having gold bars imho. Cannot compare a digital asset to a physical one like that.
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buddykire
Tin 4 months ago
Not really. Physical things have value in themselves, especially AU. Digital stuff will always be more fragile. You can´t touch or smell your bitcoin, and if the internet shuts down, it will be problems. Physical things are king at the end of the day, thats my point. I still like crypto.
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solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
>You can´t touch or smell your bitcoin, and if the internet shuts down, it will be problems
You can send bitcoin via radio, so no. Phyiscal things are king in a primitive world, i have to agree. If we lose internet, radio etc, we're not going to be using the USD, EUR or w/e anyway, so it doesn't matter in that case.
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_imba__
Crypto Nerd | QC: BCH 28 4 months ago
> this is going to happen in the US too
The biggest problem I have with this view, is that of belief. So if US's inflation doesn't increase to similar levels of Brazil, Venezuela and Argentina, will you change your views on money printing? Similarly I'd need to change my views if this indeed happens (and QE can be shown as a major reason etc).
As someone in the third world, there are MANY factors that lead to high inflation rates. Quantitative easing is one factor, but honestly it is also sometimes the smart thing for a country to do. Reducing it to evil money printing is one of the crappiest things about this subreddit.
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solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
>Reducing it to evil money printing is one of the crappiest things about this subreddit.
Tbh its not about the money printing itself for me, its about the possibility of infinite money printing, which the fed has, that is the problem. if they saw it fit, they could print 25 trillion tomorrow, which is the total US debt, and pay it off. THEORETICALLY. Noone should be able to do that.
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_imba__
Crypto Nerd | QC: BCH 28 4 months ago
Ok that's understandable. Tell me are there no checks and balances on the fed regarding QE in US? I'd imagine/hope they'd be accountable to someone if they do something super malicious/irresponsible.
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solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
From what i understand the FED "checks" themselves: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUrlNHTxuJM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUrlNHTxuJM)
​
Listen to the whole 60 minutes if you want. Scary stuff.
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Wombleshart
Gold | QC: BTC 42, CC 23 | EOS 5 4 months ago
You make some decent points, but comparing the US economy to Brazil, Venezuela and Argentina is not one. You may understand crypto, but it would appear you don’t understand economics.
1
cr0ft
Platinum | QC: BCH 648, CC 572, ETH 211 | r/Politi 4 months ago
The people who think they "understand economics" as we define economics today are a far bigger problem than the people who realize they don't, and can't, because it's not a science. "Economics" is an opinion-driven concept, and probably has more in common with religion than science...
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ChessFeb
Redditor for 6 months. 4 months ago
Absolutely, let alone it's a man made hoaxy enterprise, taxes are the main indicator here, ahahahahah!
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solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
And just one more thing, i didn't compare the economy as a whole, i compared money printing, deficit spending & inflation. There is plently of other reasons why those countries have a worse economy than the US, but those things are some major factors that contributed to their countries currency losing its value.
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Wombleshart
Gold | QC: BTC 42, CC 23 | EOS 5 4 months ago
I get that, but the point is the underlying economy. I’m happy to chat this with you amicably, as you seam like a decent chap that has an interest in economics. I agree that endlessly printing billions would pop the dollar, but that is not what is happening here. The liquidity in the markets was the issue, and to solve that the fed has filled the gap.
You should also consider that as global demand has taken a hit, demand led inflation won’t be that high. You can see this effect in the currently very low oil price.
2
solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
US citizens gets so butthurt when you talking negatively about their country.
​
How do you think the hyperinflation in those countries started? It started because of money printing and deficit spending.
​
What is the US doing right this moment?
1
Wombleshart
Gold | QC: BTC 42, CC 23 | EOS 5 4 months ago
You are nailing it as far as being incorrect. I’m British.
Increased money supply and weak economies caused those countries inflationary issues. You are comparing war torn jungles to the world’s biggest economy and home to almost all of the worlds leading tech companies. Their combined GDP is a fraction of the US. Remember when the US defaulted on its bonds? No, me neither.
You don’t really have a clue about economics. That’s why you’re comparing Venezuela to the US.
1
solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
I work at a bank, i have education within economy, and no im not british nor from the US.
​
Remember when the US economy crashed in 2008 because of the "housing bubble" and they lowered interesetrates to climb back up, which now is at 0%? How is that sustainable. Again, im not comparing the economy as a whole. Im just comparing a few things that those countries did, and the US currenctly does.
**" Increased money supply and weak economies caused those countries inflationary issues. "**
Increased money supply is exactly what the US is currently doing... you are proving what i said.
​
As said in my other comment. Currently the US can print their debt tomorrow, and pay it off. How is that a sustainable system.
​
I think you get me wrong. Im not saying that the US is going under, that the "leading tech companies" you are talking about has no value. Im saying that the monetary system in the world is VERY flawed, because of the reasons ive listen above, and it's a danger to the DOLLAR.
2
Wombleshart
Gold | QC: BTC 42, CC 23 | EOS 5 4 months ago
Lots of what you’re saying is correct. It was the comparison to Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela that was inaccurate.
1
solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
Id say the comparison was extreme, not inaccurate. It could happen in the us, it is not very likely.
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Wombleshart
Gold | QC: BTC 42, CC 23 | EOS 5 4 months ago
Ok, but you did say “this will happen in the US now too”. What you have said above is more accurate.
I’m not bothered anymore, I’m just upset that you thought I was American.
1
solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
Yes, it will happen to the US too, but thats in the long term, maybe a in decade, or maybe in 100s of years, if they don't change their monetary system. What i 100% know is that 0% interestrates and a FED that can print infinite money is not sustainable.
1
Wombleshart
Gold | QC: BTC 42, CC 23 | EOS 5 4 months ago
Remember the hyperinflation in 2008? Nope.
Increased money supply DOES NOT mean inflation. These ARE NOT the same.
1
solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
True, but the money printing they did back then is negligible compared to what they are currently doing.
​
Also look up a dollar devaluation chart since the US left the gold standard. The USD has lost loads of its value compared to most "hard" assets, and with more money printing it will lose even more of its value.
1
Wombleshart
Gold | QC: BTC 42, CC 23 | EOS 5 4 months ago
You will find that inflation has been pretty consistent across all major currencies since the all left the gold standard. You will also find that it doesn’t account for interest received, so it’s not a fair comparison. There is far more to it that money printing.
1
solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
Again everything you said is true, and so is what is said.
​
" You will find that inflation has been pretty consistent across all major currencies since the all left the gold standard"
Of course, the current monetary system is whats flawed, so all fiat currencies, not the US dollar specifically. I think bitcoin is a good alternative, maybe the best we have so far, but its not close to being perfect.
​
​
​
"There is far more to it that money printing."
But it certainly won't make the dollar more valuable, while i guarantee it will contribute to it losing its value.
1
Kryptoboar
Bronze 4 months ago
Youre right, but still the US does have a key difference with others: it controls the world currency.
So when they print, they fuck everyone and not just them.
Not to mention other countries have a vested interest in preventing the USD from collapsing and will often match the US printing to keep their currencies aligned with the dollar...
So they have much much more inertia hence what theyre doing now.
This will probably come to an end as China with Russia increasingly challenge this but theres gonna be some dangerous waves...
1
solarixs
Silver | QC: CC 25 4 months ago
Very true, and i was actually about to take up the point of China challenging the US as the reserve world currency. Everything you wrote just provides me with an better argument in the long term, so it seems like we agree.
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minorthreatmikey
Silver | QC: CC 45 | IOTA 116 | TraderSubs 88 4 months ago
That’s strange you have that sentiment. I am completely opposite. Never been more excited for the future and what crypto can bring
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ChessFeb
Redditor for 6 months. 4 months ago
Apart from the www.livingroomofsatoshi.com, not that much, not a chart though, real biz, Australian at that!
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Life_Is_A_BCH
Redditor for less than 2 weeks 4 months ago
An interesting sentiment from Gavin - I've recognized that the markets of the coins ebb and flow together, but never put the thought about how that ignores the separate tech in each coin so far to the forefront. It must mean that it's still early.
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cryptos4pz
4 months ago
Don't forget this, everyone:
Bitcoin loses HALF of its value in TWO-DAY plunge (March 13, 2020)
The cryptocurrency briefly dropped below $4,000 Friday after starting the week above $9,000.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/bitcoin-loses-half-of-its-value-in-two-day-plunge.html
Nothing major happened on the BTC technical front around March 13, 2020 either... Markets.
6
ErdoganTalk
4 months ago
A possible explanation of flash crashes, is margin contracts \*), because those always have a limit to how much the bet can go against the speculator before he is "stopped out", this amplifies the effect of the price move and can lead to a chain of failure of contracts with slightly more safety. *This is normal*, and it has to be like that as long as people do speculate.
*) but also people making decisions without leverage, when they have certain limits in their minds for them to take action on.
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cryptos4pz
4 months ago
> A possible explanation of flash crashes, is margin contracts *), because those always have a limit to how much the bet can go against the speculator before he is "stopped out", this amplifies the effect
Sorry, but that's utterly ridiculous. The size of the BTC market is approximately **170 BILLION** dollars. There is no way 85 billion dollars is comprised of margin. And it's just "margin" not contracts... that's options. Also it's "margin called" not "stopped out".
>but also people making decisions without leverage, when they have certain limits in their minds for them to take action on.
The majority of any "normal" market is structured like this (no leverage), where people put stops at their price targets, because people are usually more conservative with money than risky, unless they're purposely gambling as entertainment. What more likely happened is some event spooked some sizable portion of the market and as it sank stop limits *were* triggered which sent prices downward which spooked more people who then sold which triggered more stops etc. Either way my point is the **50% selloff** wasn't based on anything technical.
2
ErdoganTalk
4 months ago
> Sorry, but that's utterly ridiculous
It happens in almost all markets. It does not have to be formal contracts with a stop loss, re my last line above.
Of course it can happen more if someone considers the volume of speculative contracts is high (people working with the largest exchanges can know) and trigger the cascade if they can.
This is basic stuff
2
cryptos4pz
4 months ago
I don't know why you keep using the word "contract". Most selling happens on crypto exchanges, and they are not trading derivatives (at least not more than ~1-5% of them I'd guess).
Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange. Show me one place they use the word "contract" related to something financially traded (and I'm not including "smart contract" which is a whole other subject).
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ErdoganTalk
4 months ago
Hehe everything you do on an exchange is a contract. But I meant futures, often called margin trading, a simple to use variant. The point is there are limits, and when you cross them the contract is sold. Long or short, same thing, so when you give up on your bet, the move in the opposite direction of what you hoped, becomes stronger. *The same thing happens if you decide to sell, because the price went down to much and you got scared, or the opposite, even if you have no contract, but you only have a balance in your own wallet*. Even a margin contract does not need to have margin, but at least the short will have a limit anyway (always when longing if the collateral is of the same type that you speculate with, and with shorting if the collateral is of the other type).
Of course it is the speculation, when it comes to pure money, *because there is nothing else*
1
ssvb1
4 months ago
He is comparing charts of two mostly irrelevant altcoins, which have no real use cases other than speculation. Or are there any merchants accepting them for payments?
As a different example, the BCH vs. BSV hashwar did have a major impact on the whole crypto market, collapsing prices of cryptocurrencies which were even not directly involved in this ordeal.
0
phillipsjk
4 months ago
I think using two unknown cryptocurrencies as an example was appropriate here. It removes confounding factors.
5
ssvb1
4 months ago
These are definitely not unknown cryptocurrencies.
ZCash had unfair distribution of coins and its primary purpose was to enrich its creators (see [Founders’ Reward](https://electriccoin.co/blog/funding/)).
Iota has always had a coordinator node, which makes it a centralized cryptocurrency. Those who cared about tech, were perfectly aware that this centralization allows to shut down the network among other things. And when this actually happened, this didn't surprise anyone.
So what is Gavin Andresen trying to claim? Those who really cared about tech, never invested in these two cryptocurrencies in the first place. And these cryptocurrencies don't have any significant market share either, so there don't seem to be many tech illiterate investors.
1
phillipsjk
4 months ago
The price chart of every cryptocurrency looks the same: because too many exchanges still use BTC as the "base" trading pair.
So when BTC moves, everything moves with it.
The BCH-BSV hashwar you mentioned was notable because it was enough to move BTC as well.
2
ErdoganTalk
4 months ago
The market works well. It comprises all people, and of course not everybody understands money, technology or even want to. But these people are in all markets, so no big deal.
2
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