RT @balajis: Wow. Foreign Policy claims to have acquired an internal database of Chinese coronavirus stats.
Surprisingly, their first cut analysis seems to show that leaked numbers actually match the reported numbers. *If* so China hasn’t been lying.
Wow. Foreign Policy claims to have acquired an internal database of Chinese coronavirus stats.
Surprisingly, their first cut analysis seems to show that leaked numbers actually match the reported numbers. *If* so China hasn’t been lying.
It says there are 640,000 rows which means there are 640,000 data points. It didn’t specify whether each data point represent a unique patient. This dataset is said to have been leaked but it’s actually been available on public domain for a while now.
I would like to have the dataset and take a look though. It will be interesting to see what the reality is. Because let's face it that if someone lies about their results once, we all should question the integrity of other reports from the same body.
Tá, mas onde estão os dados? Eu procurei no site, e não tem o link para os dados diretamente. Nem o site da universidade que tem os dados supostamente maqueados, carrega. Se for verdade mesmo, o número de cass foi bem maior do que eles mesmo anunciaram, o que não me deixa surpreso, eles mentem sobre tudo.
Ainda não disponibilizaram isso pelo que vi, o próprio artigo usa termos muito vagos.
O artigo foi escrito por dois veículos de imprensa, o que provavelmente indica que seria desse aqui o contato com a fonte: https://100r.org/2020/05/china-coronavirus/
Well, the number of new people under medical observations (i.e. people who contact traced but not showing symptoms) are about 10x the number of new confirmed case with thousand going on and taken off observations in daily reports back in February and March.
In that case, the number 640k us somewhat in the ball park of observation number, in the case, it does make sense the locations in the database to be KFC and churches as the article states.
I'm always torn on China. On the one hand I think they are lying about their numbers and they are far greater then reported. on the other hand all my family that lives there are living their lives as normal, and haven't heard or seen anything about the virus in a while and know nobody who has it. So obviously they can't be that hard hit if absolutely nobody there sees anything happening. So I'm never really sure whats going on there.
Yes— I think that’s both a testament to how powerful the information control is and, perhaps, to the relatively NOT apocalyptic nature of this pathogen. Very probably tight tracing and centralized quarantining are going on, and we already know that more localized lockdowns have happened since the darkest days in Wuhan.
in that case, why not say the size of the database is 1.5 GB, which is 1.5 billion bytes, then every Chinese person would have the coronavirus plus some double counting, finally something to make westerners happy about.
Numerous Chinese apps show the location (i.e. apartment building) of every single coronavirus case.
The data-set they use is the exact same one as this "private", "invaluable", "leaked", "sensitive", "comprehensive", "extensive", "incredibly rich", "restricted", "covered-up" "valuable trove of information" discovered by this circle-jerker.
Sad that he is "not making the database publicly available for now for reasons of security." I guess a billion Chinese people will just have to open their apps to find the information.
I really don't think China's situation matters anymore. Maybe their numbers are a 10x higher than reported, maybe not. Yeah, no one trusts the CCP but this is way beyond them now. Instead of trying to divert all attention to what they're doing we should confront the fact that multiple countries failed utterly to respond to a virus that we had months to prepare for.
Besides, demonizing China will only lead to bigger issues. The last thing I want is idiot warmongers trying to convince congress to launch a fucking invasion or something in retaliation.
The source of the leak, who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of sharing Chinese military data, said that the data came from the university. The school publishes a data tracker for the coronavirus: The online version matches with the leaked information, except it is far less detailed—it shows just the map of cases, not the distinct data.
The dataset, though it contains inconsistencies—and though it may not be comprehensive enough to contradict Beijing’s official numbers—is the most extensive dataset proved to exist about coronavirus cases in China.
https://www.nudtdata.com.cn/ <-- this is the tracker they were referring to, zoom out and add the numbers up. So this click-bait article actually reaffirms China's numbers. Doesn't prevent idiots who don't read the article from jumping to conclusions...
I notice there is a self report feature in the website, so basically anyone can add themselves in the database to be tracked and contact traced. No wonder the the database is huge, also the article says it block American IPs, but it doesn't seems to be true.
Article for those who have used up their limited number of FP Article views:
Leaked Chinese Virus Database Covers 230 Cities, 640,000 Updates
New information may offer insight into the honesty of China’s coronavirus numbers.
Beijing claims that since the coronavirus pandemic began at the end of last year, there have been only 82,919 confirmed cases and 4,633 deaths in mainland China. Those numbers could be roughly accurate, and in that case a detailed account would be an important tool in judging the spread of the virus. But it’s also possible that the numbers presented to the rest of the world are vastly understated compared to Beijing’s private figures. The opaqueness and mistrust of outsiders in the Chinese Communist Party’s system makes it hard to judge—but learning more about the coronavirus data used directly by Chinese officials is invaluable for governments elsewhere. A dataset of coronavirus cases and deaths from the military’s National University of Defense Technology, leaked to Foreign Policy, offers insight into how Beijing has gathered coronavirus data on its population. The source of the leak, who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of sharing Chinese military data, said that the data came from the university. The school publishes a data tracker for the coronavirus: The online version matches with the leaked information, except it is far less detailed—it shows just the map of cases, not the distinct data.
The dataset, though it contains inconsistencies—and though it may not be comprehensive enough to contradict Beijing’s official numbers—is the most extensive dataset proved to exist about coronavirus cases in China. But more importantly, it can serve as a valuable trove of information for epidemiologists and public health experts around the globe—a dataset that Beijing has almost certainly not shared with U.S. officials or doctors. (The World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not immediately respond to requests for comment.)
While not fully comprehensive, the data is incredibly rich: There are more than 640,000 updates of information, covering at least 230 cities—in other words, 640,000 rows purporting to show the number of cases in a specific location at the time the data was gathered. Each update includes the latitude, longitude, and “confirmed” number of cases at the location, for dates ranging from early February to late April.
For locations in and around the center of the outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei province, the data also includes deaths and those who “recovered.” It’s unclear how the dataset’s authors define “confirmed” and “recovered”: Like other countries, China has updated its counting methods, as demonstrated in mid-February when Hubei’s reported cases spiked because officials announced they were including patients diagnosed with CT scans. Unlike in other countries, China’s outbreak peaked before rigorous testing methods were widely available, and the Communist Party often manipulates data for political purposes.
The data reviewed by Foreign Policy includes hospital locations, but it also includes place names corresponding to apartment compounds, hotels, supermarkets, railway stations, restaurants, and schools across the breadth of the country. The dataset reports one case of coronavirus in a KFC in the eastern city of Zhenjiang on March 14, for example, while a church in the northeastern provincial capital of Harbin saw two cases on March 17. (The data does not include the names of the individuals who contracted or died from the disease, and the reports of the cases in the dataset could not be independently verified.)
It’s unclear as yet how the university gathered the data. The online version says that they aggregated the data from China’s health ministry, the National Health Commission, media reports, and other public sources. According to its website, the university, based in the central Chinese city of Changsha, is “under the direct leadership of the Central Military Commission,” the body that oversees China’s military. The military has played a large role in mobilizing against the virus: It has helped enforce quarantines, transport supplies, and treat patients. A propaganda message on a prominent military website in China reads, “In the fight against the epidemic, the people’s army is on the move!”
The man most responsible for building the database appears to be Zhang Haisu, a director at the school’s Information and Communication Department. In a May press release, the university credits Zhang for building the “Fight the Virus to Return to Work Database” and praises his dedication. A note on the data tracker’s website reads, “Currently our country is taking forceful measures, and the epidemic situation is being strictly managed and controlled. Please correctly understand that to use the relevant data.” The site features a contact email for a Zhang Haisu; no one responded when Foreign Policy reached out. The university did not respond to a request for comment.
Foreign Policy and 100Reporters, who are co-publishing this piece, are not making the database publicly available for now for reasons of security, but are exploring ways to make the data available for researchers studying the spread of the coronavirus.
For its popular coronavirus tracker, John Hopkins University gathers its data on Chin from DXY, a Chinese medical platform that aggregates cases in the country. But DXY provides information at only the provincial level. Richer information would benefit researchers, and ordinary people who are eager to know more about how the disease has affected other countries and spread. Patterns in the data could add to what is known about the disease, and the ways Beijing manipulates its numbers. Medical researchers expressed skepticism in mid-April, after Wuhan revised the number of coronavirus deaths from 2,579 to 3,869—an increase of exactly 50 percent.
Why does Beijing restrict access to its coronavirus data? Possibly because of malice or mistrust toward the United States, at a time when tensions are running high. Possibly because of bureaucratic errors. And possibly because Beijing fears that outside researchers will learn of its extensive cover-up, destroying the narrative that an authoritarian nation like China is better equipped to protect its people against a pandemic. Even the public version of the National University of Defense Technology dataset sporadically restricts American IP addresses. To access the military university’s website hosting the map for the first time, one of the present authors had to use a virtual private network to pretend he was browsing in Uruguay.
Foreign Policy and 100Reporters have come into possession of a leaked military university dataset (from the National University of Defense Technology) with 630,000 additional datapoints compared to the publicly available dataset. As such it offers an incredible wealth of information that was kept hidden from use – its value is yet to be seen however. FP and 100R will not be publicly releasing the dataset for security reasons but will be seeking other avenues to supply it to researchers studying coronavirus and its spread. Nevertheless, the leaked military university dataset does not contradict the publicly available data published on the Universities website and the article even states that the dataset is not enough to contradict official Chinese numbers.
In my personal opinion, although I am suspicious of official numbers from the CCP the fact that there has been little evidence outside of conjecture (much like this personal opinion) there may exist the possibility that there will be no “smoking gun” for any larger cover up of a hidden death toll. Or if there is such a death toll it will not be as extensive as some think (or dare I say, hope?). Largely this opinion comes from a desire to see China as “peer” rather than reducing them to the halls of an incompetent other who could never rise to a challenge as the west could – so subsequently they are only wrong and lying – largely to temper any innate superiority complex. Essentially, we must get real about China and their capabilities be it their military technologies or their ability to respond to disaster.
I would also like to note that I think the headline is incredibly poorly worded, either done so on purpose with some intent to mislead people who would only glance at headlines – they would see the 230 cites and 640,000 number and assume that across 230 cities there were 640,000 cases. Or simply out of stupidity, which I would think uncharacteristic of the people who have the opportunity to post on Foreign Policy.
From the article: " While not fully comprehensive, the data is incredibly rich: There are more than 640,000 updates of information, covering at least 230 cities—in other words, 640,000 rows purporting to show the number of cases in a specific location at the time the data was gathered." Meaning that 230 cities have updated the number of COVID-19 cases a total of 640.000 times. There is no single definition used what a location is. Researchers have found it to sometimes be very specific e.g. a church or even a KFC and sometimes the location is a complete apartment block or railway station.
A update means one of the rows is updated. So person A went to supermarket B is a update. Person checked in to its apartment a while later is another update and so on.
To bring this into perspective its might mean on average there are 8 updates for each covid-19 case for the reported 80k cases.
A case might get a update to flag a infected case, another update might be cleared of covid-19. A couple of update for contact tracing etc. Maybe a update when a case ask for some support like groceries etc.