@ProducerCody Merkel used 60-70% guesstimate for Germany 2 days ago. The truth is no one knows until this plays out, but we must assume the worst outcome until we have taken action to produce the best.
Yes. But I sincerely hope that there is a big factor between ppl that are tested positive (CFR) and ppl that are infected but not tested (IFR). You would have to multiply the number with the latter not the former.
So if only 1/10 actual infections is currently being recorded then there would be only 0.34 Mio deaths. That’s what I’m hoping for anyway.
So if you apply even low end of the math to the population of the US does this not translate to something like 1M deaths on the low end? Sounds like the equivalent of a nuclear warhead hitting a city the size of Austin, TX. This wouldn’t be an acceptable loss of life and population to anyone regardless of it is an act of aggression or not.
Because there is no immunity and vaccine will takes months the only option in US is to do what Italy is doing which is to shut things down until the new virus counts slow.
It can’t be like China where people’s rights sound like they were violated in an extreme way, and we have laws that are strengths to not let anyone abuse this type of power, but what choice does the US have then to do something similar?
I saw the press conference yesterday and the option of flattening the curve, but it relies on everyone washing hands, distancing and closing down events.
That’s true too, and also terrible, but anyone ready to roll the dice that their 60+ year old relatives won’t get sick and end up in high risk health scenario?
Both are bad outcomes. An overwhelmed heathcare
System will also result in deaths of people that have other diseases or are in accidents. In normal patient volume conditions (I.e not during a pandemic) these people that would have been sick or injured anyway, but if they have to wait that much longer to get critical care they could now be at increased risk.
Only most effective measure to take now is what Italians are doing.
Yes, they were very honest and serious today, it actually suprised me as well. A week ago, it was more like "just wash your hands and it´s all fine".
Most concering for me was the talk about China and that it most likely doesn´t just go away in summer. This is the total opposite to what many believed or had hoped, I guess.
Even the CDC in the US said this virus might continue to spread into 2021. It’s terrible. But if we can keep the infections down to a controllable level, it would be better than a huge spike.
But people in the US are getting different messages from the government agencies.
I hope Germans will take every precaution and stay safe as much as possible.
70-75% of population are likely to get this. Of that people aged 75+ have a 85% recovery rate and any underlying conditions worsen them numbers. Same for ages groups down. I'm fairly sure I understand the situation but thank you for trying to be more insightful
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