This animation demonstrates Moore's law not the inevitability, nor the one-offness of landing on the moon. Computer power (looking back on history) was inevitable because of the ease at which it was attained, and the raw utility of off loading mental effort or enhancing mental labor by way of machines. The moon landing can be considered one off, or a fluke because: Of the intense labor involved in even small ventures on the moon, and the relatively low utility of moon escapades
hmm % wise probably. we have probably increased faster in the past decade but it hasnt felt that way because we were already decent.
as in 2000's it went from 10 to 100 which feels huge
and in the 10's it went from 100 to 400 which is more but smaller magnitude
The problem from my understanding is that since chip manufacturing started hitting 65nM and below then the transistor gates have begun to suffer much more from quantum effects. Modern metal K gate designs being an attempt to usurp polysilicon depletion effects as an example.
So things have slowed down and gotten very much more expensive because of the huge amount of extra research and re-engineering that has to go into every single reduction in size of the gates and associated packaging to mitigate these problems.
As Carmack alluded to things like quantum tunneling is being seen at these levels.
There is a whole slew of unwanted effects that need to be designed around. These are all new effects for the most part as well so take a long time to figure out an engineer around.
I am not a chip expert by any means but am an electronic engineer. This is my somewhat I am sure naive and simplistic interpretation of the problem.
This thingie needs to add 64 core EPYC, since that's a retail product now. 32 Billion Transistors is the number I came up with via Google. So about on track with the Moore's Law bar thingie, although still lagging slightly behind at the end of 2019.
I tried to come up with a number for the Intel 9282 56 core, but didn't find one. As it's essentially 2 28 cores glued together, and the 28 cores weigh in at 8 Billion Transistors... plus more transistors to accomodate the 'glue...
The Virtex Ultrascale weighs in at 35 Billion Transistors, but isn't due until Q3 2020:
That's a strange way to spell Shintel
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AyyMD) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Me parecio super interesante y creo que tiene mucho que ver con este sub donde se habla todo el tiempo de CPUs y GPUs.
Además no se detiene en 2019, sino que avanza la prediccion de Moore hasta donde supuestamente terminaria, en 2025.
Esto ultimo da una perspectiva de lo que nos espera para los proximos 6 años y es realmente asombroso y, por lo menos a mi, me deja mucho espacio para imaginar el futuro y el impacto de esto en la sociedad y por sobre todo los video juegos jajaja.
Your submission has been removed because we do not allow redd.it link posts except for static images. Why? Our spam controls get screwed up by the v.redd.it domain. Please use Youtube to host videos or imgur/gfycat for gifs, thanks!