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Before this post getting inundated with uncountably many comments guesstimating the true IFR figure, I would like to urge you to have a look at this comment by u/merpderpmerp:
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/gf4iv0/repeated_seroprevalence_of_antisarscov2_igg/fprsj4e
As you might be aware, two serological survey results from Geneva and New York City are more reliable sources to base our IFR estimation due to their methodology and scale (i.e., high immunity prevalence). As shown in the above comment and another comment of mine in the following:
Rather surprisingly, two IFR estimates from Geneva and New York City almost coincide with eath other, i.e., 1.23%-1.29%. I think we are approaching some semblance of the true IFR figure finally.
I must add that, as many recent serological research results where the infected population is young and, sometimes, mostly female (which was the case for the study from Gangelt), have shown so far, we are likely to see relatively small IFR figures from research results conducted in areas with low seroprevalence because young people are active spreaders due to their high mobility pattern and thusly the infected population is relatively young. In this light, it is very dangerous to try to estimate the true IFR figure from these survey results with low prevalence, not to mention that the average inter-event delay between death (23.8 days) and antibody formation (14 days) must be considered.
Please note that the confidence interval for the last week is 6.1-13.1% This is still quite a range. I hope they do a good analysis about the IFR by age that takes the distribution of the delays in antibody response and infection to death into account and propagates the uncertainty of the result forward.
So, 6% that have it are 0-19 8.5% are 20-49 and 3.7% are 50+?
So this thing is actually widely spread through younger ages but far far less deadly? I know the age difference made a big difference but that seems like a huge difference.. does explain the ongoing care home problems though. This is just what I'm getting from this I could be widely incorrect
Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is at least in the short-term associated with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from burning out simply due to herd immunity.
This will really depend on what the herd immunity threshold is. One recent study argued the threshold may be at 10-20%.
FYI: Euroimmun IgG immunoassays were independently validated as having 96% specificity and 67% sensitivity.
IFR calculation(edited):
Deaths in Geneva: 178 239 (on 24.04)
Population: 499,480
IFR: 239/ (9.7%*499,480)= 0.49%
This is exactly in line with the Gangelt study
Abstract:
Background: Assessing the burden of COVID-19 based on medically-attended case counts is suboptimal given its reliance on testing strategy, changing case definitions and the wide spectrum of disease presentation. Population-based serosurveys provide one avenue for estimating infection rates and monitoring the progression of the epidemic, overcoming many of these limitations. Methods: Taking advantage of a pool of adult participants from population-representative surveys conducted in Geneva, Switzerland, we implemented a study consisting of 8 weekly serosurveys among these participants and their household members older than 5 years. We tested each participant for anti-SARS-CoV-2-IgG antibodies using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Euroimmun AG, Lubeck, Germany). We estimated seroprevalence using a Bayesian regression model taking into account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of Geneva's population. Results: In the first three weeks, we enrolled 1335 participants coming from 633 households, with 16% <20 years of age and 53.6% female, a distribution similar to that of Geneva. In the first week, we estimated a seroprevalence of 3.1% (95% CI 0.2-5.99, n=343). This increased to 6.1% (95% CI 2.6-9.33, n=416) in the second, and to 9.7% (95% CI 6.1-13.11, n=576) in the third week. We found that 5-19 year-olds (6.0%, 95% CI 2.3-10.2%) had similar seroprevalence to 20-49 year olds (8.5%, 95%CI 4.99-11.7), while significantly lower seroprevalence was observed among those 50 and older (3.7%, 95% CI 0.99-6.0, p=0.0008). Interpretation: Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is at least in the short-term associated with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from burning out simply due to herd immunity. Further, no differences in seroprevalence between children and middle age adults are observed. These results must be considered as Switzerland and the world look towards easing restrictions aimed at curbing transmission.
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