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The forecast of the first graph has a history of strong underestimation (check past versions, easily 30%).
I suspect a lot of people is misinterpreting the second graph, it is very difficult to judge delay trends from that one, in particular weekends, where the line is low, should be the days with worst delay (automatically +1/2 days compared to others) but the line is low.
So, double check what the graph represents before concluding anything.
So, half the deaths on a single day are not reported for a week or more. The delay can be as high as three weeks.
Is it any wonder that their "curve" always seems to be flattening in the last couple of weeks?
Well, of course it would, when half the deaths are not announced...
Low population density + good health care + relatively healthier elders
It is important to note that the author has also commented that if there is a decline in the deaths it will be masked for a while by the lag - people will just keep expecting that the values are low because the deaths haven't been reported yet. So we will likely find out we are past the peak few weeks after it when it is certain the backlog doesn't go as far.
So, if I'm reading this correctly, the most recent data is probably missing some counts (the light blue 7-14 day lags)? The recent decline might just be bc reported data is incomplete?
The forecast uses an average of the lag of the previous days, so naturally it can only predict that mortality will remain steady. Wouldn't be able to tell if it actually was going up or down.
Not spiking. That’s good to see. As much as I might have been secretly hoping to be able to use Sweden as a warning to idiots, it looks like they might be managing it.
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