The recipe for Bitcoin’s long-term success is not waiting for halving after halving. It is in reducing existing risks, seeking new opportunities, and patiently explaining the existing risks and opportunities.
DEMAND: Higher demand than supply (rarely seen and usually only when FOMO kicks in through market manipulation of one form or another).
BEST USE VALUE: Real world use case promoting a spontaneous revolution in global payments ( this has not happened and isn’t showing signs of doing so as Bitcoins user base is tiny).
SPECULATION: This is where Bitcoins Value is and has been since day one (someone buys it holds it in the want of selling it to someone else who’ll pay more for it, even if it’s real world use cases are not coming to fruition) this is called greed investing.
Theres a strong possibility, but no certainty, that there will be a dump the week of or few weeks after the halving. Just buy the rumor sell the news sort of thing. But also a strong possibility, but no certainty, is the 12-18 months after the halving could be very bullish. Long term folks.
"Using Stock-to-Flow to predict prices is absolute nonsense. First, the price is the result of supply AND demand. Looking at the supply is certainly useful, but without demand, we simply cannot find the price. If the demand for Bitcoin falls, the price will drop even at the same Stock-to-Flow. After all, just look at Bitcoin Cash, and you immediately see that the model does not work."
I believe you can make the case that people don't know Bitcoin. Of course they know the name, but the average person certainly does not grasp the details and implictions Bitcoin brings to the table. These people will learn more about Bitcoin, and ultimately that will inspire more people to hold Bitcoin. Thus, the diminished future supply will contribute to Future price increases, as most people do not and have not owned Bitcoin.
Bitcoin education, and overall demand growth through rising public knowledge is the more important part of bitcoins price rising in the future.