Token Daily - What Bear Markets Look Like

Neeraj K. Agrawal - @NeerajKA

RT @zooko: This article about Wall Street back-burnering their cybercoin products (https://t.co/ynKzzRDm4n) reminds me of what Fred Wilson wrote: “most everyone in big companies wrote the Internet sector off, cancelling their Internet efforts as a fool’s errand” (https://t.co/YQdCiQ9KGK).

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Christopher Wheeler - @Stocktrader

What Bear Markets Look Like https://t.co/RiKtZAUsmH

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Elad Gil - @eladgil

RT @dksf: "I think some crypto asset (and possibly a number of crypto assets) will have a price chart like Amazon’s current one in 18 years." -@fredwilson https://t.co/OjSCGcJvLd

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Leigh Cuen - @La__Cuen

RT @zooko: If you have any kind of investment in crypto/blockchain/decentralization — whether financial, or you've been investing your career in it, or you've been investing your emotional, social, political energy — then YOU MUST READ THIS: https://t.co/YQdCiPS9ia ...

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Chris Burniske - @cburniske

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Marty Bent - @MartyBent

@AdamSinger https://t.co/HlfUCBxSRR

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Cass Lin - @thulynnn

RT @semil: .@fredwilson on bracing for a "crypto bear market" that could rival the 1999-2001 Internet crash, where dreams evaporated, regulation followed, and returns took 5 (but really 9-10) to regain momentum: https://t.co/zxKLF22zLD

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Jeff Garzik - @jgarzik

RT @brian_armstrong: Great perspective from @fredwilson 👌 https://t.co/zSb7EMgwyF we always take a long term view at @coinbase

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Pierre Rochard - @pierre_rochard

RT @TheStalwart: A common trope in crypto, now that the chips are down, is that it's time to focus on building real value, and not just focusing on price and speculation. EG this from @fredwilson or this tweet from @Melt_Dem https://t.co/cNIu2QYErR https://t.co/4Yw1fZJY5l

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Epicenter – Blockchain Podcast - @epicenterbtc

"But we will have to do what Amazon did, hunker down and build value and survive, for quite a while to get there. And I think things will get worse before they get better." by @fredwilson https://t.co/tBPyX8HSen

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Michelle Varron - @michellevarron

RT @ErikVoorhees: Fred Wilson on Crypto and the Internet bubbles... "What Bear Markets Look Like" https://t.co/1UqMBntIv8 #bitcoin #amazon

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Alejandro DeLaTorre - @bitentrepreneur

What Bear Markets Look Like https://t.co/PRgLAoMSmj

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Ryan Selkis - @twobitidiot

RT @ErikVoorhees: Fred Wilson on Crypto and the Internet bubbles... "What Bear Markets Look Like" https://t.co/1UqMBntIv8 #bitcoin #amazon

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Jeremy Epstein - @jer979

Truth from the Godfather @avc What Bear Markets Look Like https://t.co/BAiwCm0Eoq Going to pin this to my wall

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Ragnar Lifthrasir ⚑ - @Ragnarly

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Erik Voorhees - @ErikVoorhees

Fred Wilson on Crypto and the Internet bubbles... "What Bear Markets Look Like" https://t.co/1UqMBntIv8 #bitcoin #amazon

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Manuel Araoz - @maraoz

What Bear Markets Look Like https://t.co/LngGQSLMdl

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zooko - @zooko

If you have any kind of investment in crypto/blockchain/decentralization — whether financial, or you've been investing your career in it, or you've been investing your emotional, social, political energy — then YOU MUST READ THIS: https://t.co/YQdCiPS9ia ...

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Rachael Horwitz - @RachaelRad

RT @brian_armstrong: Great perspective from @fredwilson 👌 https://t.co/zSb7EMgwyF we always take a long term view at @coinbase

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Brian Armstrong - @brian_armstrong

Great perspective from @fredwilson 👌 https://t.co/zSb7EMgwyF we always take a long term view at @coinbase

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Arianna Simpson - @AriannaSimpson

What Bear Markets Look Like – AVC https://t.co/EjhtpPmJ9u

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besthingsinliferfree 4 months ago

His blog posts are pretty solid, I must say.

siliconviking 4 months ago

Agreed!!

nCABLIBi 4 months ago

good find :)

siliconviking 4 months ago

Thanks :)

top_kek_top 4 months ago

This sub is almost as delusional as /r/bitcoin

Stiritup15 4 months ago

At current prices Ethereum is up \~70,000% since pre-sale. I don't know if "delusional" is the correct descriptor.

top_kek_top 4 months ago

Keep moving those goalposts back. My beanie babies are still up massively from when they were an idea in someone's head! My DRYS stock, despite being at one point worth literally thousands of dollars/share and now worth single-digits, is still up 400% from when it was 1$!!!!!

Stiritup15 4 months ago

No moving of goalposts needed. My statement is factual.

top_kek_top 4 months ago

So is mine. Beanie babies were once worth nothing. Today they are worth something. That makes them a great investment right?

Stiritup15 4 months ago

That's a fair point. Although Beanie Babies were based on pure speculation whereas blockchains have intrinsic value - some modified version of Metcalfe's law. \[see my above comments\]. I'd also add that from recent polls on this subreddit, the majority of people bought ETH in 2015, which means a price of $0.40 - $25.

michwill 4 months ago

It might be though that due to the bubbles popping all the time (is it the 4th already?), the crypto will _never_ reach that unhealthy MegaBubble, continuing its current pace of growth

UnknownParentage Redditor for 4 months. 4 months ago

And this post is an example of why you need to use log graphs.

Grindlife247 Redditor for 21 days. 4 months ago

....except amazon is a company.

and crypto is.. ???

ExtremelyQualified 4 months ago

For me the component that is missing is valuation. Dotcoms were overvalued and then revalued much lower (the crash), but there was a methodology for valuation. (p/e, peg, eps...)

I still haven’t seen a method for valuing cryptos based on fundamentals. Even now, it feels like a 100% sentiment-driven market.

So for crypto to begin a increase in price based on rational valuation, first we’d need to agree on how that works

nostrademons 4 months ago

There wasn't really a methodology for valuing dot-coms. When most of them went public, they had neither earnings nor revenues, which made most of the traditional stock market valuation tools useless for them. Instead, they were usually measured on "eyeballs", the number of hits to their website in a given period of time. This was one of the main criticisms of them at the time. In hindsight, it was a totally valid criticism - except that 10+ years later, Facebook/Twitter/YouTube *also* had nothing but "eyeballs", but then managed to monetize that into a $100B+ business. Perhaps for crypto, the relevant fundamental *is* sentiment. It's not all that unreasonable. The key fundamental for most growth stocks is revenue and revenue growth, and this is ultimately driven by how much customers like your product (i.e. sentiment). Crypto just takes the middleman out of the equation and gets valued by how much buyers like your currency.

BlazedAndConfused 4 months ago

The value I think will be seen in disrupted industries and companies

Stiritup15 4 months ago

I think it’s a modified metcalfe’s law valuation - but I agree, no one has quite figured it out.

ExtremelyQualified 4 months ago

I think you're right, but the tricky thing is that Metcalfe only can show relative valuation based on network size. ETH might be 200x more valuable than something else, but at some point it needs a non relative number

Stiritup15 4 months ago

Somehow miner fees/sunk costs/opportunity costs need to be weighted into the valuation, too. Just don’t know how...

the_statustician Lover 4 months ago

As well as velocity of money, but...sunk costs? What you mean

Stiritup15 4 months ago

Equipment costs, contractor costs, lease costs, etc. Equipment, in particular, is being taken off the market for mining.

Enchilada_McMustang Crypto Nerd | CC: 21 QC 4 months ago

Regulation will have a very different impact though, remember this is a global market and can run parallel to the financial system in a sizeable way.

protagonist85 Gentleman 4 months ago

Several points:

it does not have to be on the same timeframe since internet "bubble" was going on for a minimum of 3 years, NOT 1 year as for crypto "bublette".
Internet "bubble" had 7 tril market cap, crypto just around 1 tril.
Ether, for example, was down 92.5% already (at the lows). That's pretty much the same levels as AMZN (93.3%).

Conclusion: It very well may be done already or within 10-15% of the final low. I am starting nibbling on a few cryptos. If i am early, then I would simply DCA.

klabboy Investor 4 months ago

One important point is we move about twice as fast (well you could aruge that) since crypto is 24/7. But theres still obvious trading volume cycles. Theres almost always increased trading during normal business hours.

BlazedAndConfused 4 months ago

Not to mention that the value of $7T in 1999 is worth even more now. Likely closer to $10T

Nooku Bullcoiner 4 months ago

He talks about it as if crypto has already reached such an infamous peak.

He's wrong.

We are just temporarily dipping.

The, and I do mean, "THE" peak, is yet to come. The peak this article was written for.

CrystalETH_ 4 months ago

This

cryptomil 1 - 2 years account age. 200 - 1000 comment karma. 4 months ago

90% is not a "dip". That's delusional.

plaenar ETH maximalist 4 months ago

Cryptos have had plenty of 90%+ dips, then making a recovery and gaining several times the previous ATH a few years later. This has happened multiple times before, and *delusional* would be to think it won't happen again.

cryptomil 1 - 2 years account age. 200 - 1000 comment karma. 4 months ago

Not only is it not a "dip", this myth that "the cryptos" (even non-ico shicoins) have had multiple 90% crashes and recoveries (outside very early bitcoin) is absurd. https://i.redd.it/8wyptobf7sd01.jpg I think ETH will bounce back someday but what you're saying is false.

plaenar ETH maximalist 4 months ago

I was referring to multiple cryptos having 90%+ crashes and recovering over previous ATH. If you call those dips, then you can call this a dip. LTC dropped from $50 in 2013 to $1.20 (98% crash), then hit $370 (7.4x from previous ATH). XRP dropped from $0.0575 to $0.00289 (95% crash) in 2013, recovered to $0.0277 in 2014 and had another 85% drop, then $3.81 (66x from previous ATH). DOGE dropped from $0.001886 to $0.000087 (95% crash), then hit $0.015 (8x from previous ATH). I think Namecoin had multiple 90% crashes but CMC history doesn't go before 2013.

Stiritup15 4 months ago

What Fred says makes a lot of sense. However, I don’t think his timeline is correct. Crypto went up at a faster rate and higher (compared to previous support) than any stock has - ever. Now it’s doing the same thing - but the opposite.

Crypto is the next iteration of information technology, which compounds on itself through feedbacks via social networks, instant sharing, and global liquidity not seen during the dot.com boom. Comparing it to dot..com is analogous on some levels, but it’s really apples to oranges. People saying it’s a long long game might get floored when a few triggers send crypto up another 20,000%. The last year was the “coalition group”, “ico”, and “hedge fund” speculation triggers. Next one will be “viral dapp”, “scaling”, and “regulation/enterprise money” triggers.

What authority do I have with my comments? None really, other than my experience with crypto since 2013. I keep seeing the same patterns, the same FUD after crash, and the same chart overlays each cycle (except each cycle is magnified).

What will regulation bring? Clarity on rules and more enterprise money IMO.

DanZigiy 1 - 2 years account age. 200 - 1000 comment karma. 4 months ago

Great observation indeed. "Viral dapp"... I can't even imagine how that can raise crazy amount of hype ? Some example ?

Stiritup15 4 months ago

Also, Gods Unchained. It could come in the form of a game. I'd also lump any side-chain with dapps, even though they also help with scaling, e.g., raiden, plasma, loom, open st mosaic, etc.

OnetimeAugurUser Redditor for 24 days. 4 months ago

LOOM's Zombie Battleground. They've built up a very impressive community of supporters, and they're heavily focused on making this a super fun game, inspired by physical card games (such as custom game modes, etc). Watch out for it. I think people will be really surprised when/if it blows up in 2019.

manofsleep Crypto Expert | CC: 21 QC 4 months ago

Can btc stop selling books soon? Oh fork.

Marswhalbaconattor Flippener 4 months ago

patience and calmness, whales aren't made daytrading for a few weeks...they're made over 5, 10, 15 year periods.

If you haven't sold, Hold. If you sold, buy again at a discount. If you're patient you will be rewarded. Hold or buy, those selling are making others into whales.

kingofcairo 1 - 2 years account age. 200 - 1000 comment karma. 4 months ago

Or sell, if you haven't and want to. Whatever you do, be intentional and follow a plan. People keep saying don't sell, price has kept going down. I think I've seen it since the top. I'm already quite up from selling at a point where others told me not to. I love ETH, and consider myself a long term ETH fan, doesn't mean it's my religion.

Tricursion Redditor for 5 months. 4 months ago

Please, tech bubble was 2T in a U.S only market. This is nothing close and should not even be compared.

Squiber228 Crypto Expert | CC: 40 QC 4 months ago

Now to find the amazon and google of crypto.

XRBeast Crypto God | CC: 59 QC | NANO: 51 QC 4 months ago

They should be instant, green and feeless, I guess...

cifereca Crypto God | CC: 21 QC | BTC: 16 QC 4 months ago

Decentralized, private. Add those two and there are no qualifiers

maxwell-alive Crypto God | CC: 144 QC | EOS: 40 QC 4 months ago

Nice try. ;)

alurch Crypto Expert | CC: 53 QC 4 months ago

oh yea, everyone remembers the early 2000's as the internet dark ages

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