I cant believe the inaction of my country.
Predictions say that 70% of germans could get infected and we have done nothing so far to fight it. (Nearly all schools are still open).
Lets go with the worst case scenario: 70%.
Germany has 82 M people.
Mortality Rate is about 3% (number still changes a lot and depends on region/state and medical resources).
So if I am right this would mean that around 1.7 Million Germans are gonna bite the dust?
For every death that is about to happen, and all the possible long term damage caused in the survivors lungs I blame our goverment which never disappoints to disappoint. My father has already isolated himself but if he dies I will blame the goverment and I will never forgive them for that.
Current Numbers: Around 1900 infected
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This is rubbish. There is a reason why virologists are silent on this topic and it's their fucking job. They've analyzed countless previous diseases and have much better data. But it's still too unpredictable, there are too many factors to be accounted for.
You can't just go with exponential curves like these morons.
I really hope that Bill gates and his wife see this model. It’s the only one I’ve seen based on the science and probability available to us, and they’re looking to stop this thing without the help of the government, they’re gunna need to know these numbers. So far, his foundation has done more to prepare and protect the people than the POTUS and his entire administration. Lies do not help THE people to prepare, they only help those people in the circle of truth. How eye opening this whole issue has been.
My personal feeling is that there is no way personal wealth could act on a large enough scale to protect an entire country or beyond.
What is needed is strong governmental action in a scenario like this and because the government has more or less fallen into disrepair, we have weak to little support.
I do think that we will see a strong response from businesses to protect their investments and labor though.
It'll be overwhelmed when the 158th Karen from Green Lake gets into her Prius and drives over to the UW Medical Center and demands a COVID test because she has the sniffles but her aromatherapy didn't work? LOL
The medium post models the doubling time as ~4 days, probably because it's relying on reported cases whereas the doubling time is more likely around 7 days. Additionally, there's no recovery fraction in the model, average patients will need beds for a couple weeks so this is a somewhat justified simplification, but it again biases us towards a more severe prediction. Finally, the assumption of 15% free beds is likely too low by roughly 2x. All of these assumptions bias the model in the same direction and make the situation out to be more acute than it likely is in reality. This is not to say we won't run out of hospital beds, but this is more likely to occur in about 2 months than 3 weeks.
**Runatyr**, your reminder arrives in **16 days** on [**2020-03-25 00:00:00Z**](https://www.reminddit.com/time?dt=2020-03-25 00:00:00Z&reminder_id=d40b65e11f8a4efaad0846da969032d2&subreddit=Coronavirus). Next time, remember to use my default callsign **kminder**.
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> kminder March 25
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‘ when do we run out of hospital beds in the metro area ? ‘ is an important question. Anyone can try to work that out given the public data available, but non experts are probably going to make mistakes in doing that.
I’d be curious to see if someone with some credibility on this has tried to work out the answer.
I don’t think you can use the nursing home deaths to calculate current infections — they are too highly correlated. I’ve been looking at all deaths, but just counting nursing home deaths as “1” highly correlated death. However, you also didn’t notice that there’s a minimum of 2 weeks (and up to 8) between symptoms and death, according to the WHO report. So, if there are, say, 3 deaths today, then there were 300 people infected two weeks ago, which then doubled to 600 last week, which then doubled to 1200 this week.
The doubling rate is probably slowing a little — lots of companies working from home, reports that downtown Seattle is a ghost town, a few schools cancelled, big events like ComiCon cancelled, everyone pretty aware… What’s the new doubling time? 8 days? 10? 15? Hard to know, but hopefully no longer 6 or 7.
Medium.com is NOT A RELIABLE SOURCE. Anybody can post anything they want. I would not trust the information until confirmed by multiple, independent sources. Additionally, their methods seem highly flawed.
Highly flawed how? It doesn't take a model as complicated as theirs to know that we've got a problem on our hands. Basic math will tell you that.
There are about 5200 hospital beds in all King County hospitals combined. It’s still flu season, so let’s assume a minimum of 75% occupancy rate, that’s 1300 available beds.
Assume state and local resources can double that count – that’s approximately 2600. If they can triple it, 3900.
If we assume only 8% of the Seattle population will become infected, (similar transmission rates to a tough flu season) (city pop approx. 725,000) that’s 58,000 infected.
If we assume that between 2% and 5% of those will require hospitalization, that’s 1,160 to 2,900 soon to be occupied hospital beds.
That’s just counting the city itself. The population of the Seattle Metro area is nearly four million.
Eight percent of that is 320,000. 2-5% of that number is 6,400 – 16,000 people requiring hospitalization, with capacity potentially able to only meet a quarter of need.
Those assumptions are either unrelated to to the final conclusion, too far of a reach (unrelated variables being correlated), or are a result of correlation incorrectly being assumed as causation. Source: molecular biologist and epidemiologist.