Though the Chinese Communist government claimed that only around 2,535 residents of Wuhan died from the deadly coronavirus, residents of the city are claiming that the number is substantially higher, ...
This is an important article for a couple of reasons:
We know the doubling rate of 44 days is wrong. The doubling rate is closer to 5 days, not 6, which means that depending on the doubling factor, suggests that a rate of 2.3 means that deaths will double continuously until it reaches a ceiling set by the governing nation. So for example, if we were to review the doubling rate in Canada compared to say, Italy, our deaths will double by a factor of 2.3 every 6 days. This means that in six days, our death rate will be 124. In 12 days, it will be 285. In 18 days, it will be 657. In 24 days, it will be 1,511, and in 30 days, the death toll will be 3,475.
China lied about their numbers, which not only misled the WHO into sharing that there was no human-to-human transmission, but also caused entire continents and countries to be set back significantly in their ability to mitigate the spread of the virus.
I call BS. If China is losing that many people, then shouldn't other countries be losing about the same amount? Countries like the US and Italy are supposed to be transparent, but if this is true, then it proves that those countries are not transparent, and if the PRC's claims of no new cases are true, then that means that the US did actually surpass China in the number of cases. Libs are hypocritical at best, but this is some next level bullshit.
A friend of mine in Indonesia, who has connections to the Indonesian government, said over a week ago that the government had identified 2000 cases there, but were only reporting 100 to prevent people from panicking.
Those numbers don't take into account the mobile incinerators sent to Wuhan. Also Every year about 2 million Chinese die from pneumonia related issues from the regular flue.
Just imagine the numbers from covid 19.
So here's the thing. When they locked down, they had something like 20k confirmed cases and 1000 confirmed deaths, right? I don't remember exactly, the timeline is a blur in my mind.
_**at that time**_ I assumed their numbers were lowballed by a factor of like, 20, so I assumed they had already had 20k deaths by the time they instituted the lockdown.
Then, assuming that their lockdown was, say, 99% effective (I don't believe they could possibly get it to 100%), assume basically no new cases, but factor in the doubling window and the incubation period and the delay from symptom onset to death, and you could see that number double two or three times before the lockdown stops it. So 20, 40, 80, and we get to a lower bound of 80k deaths.
I have no idea what to estimate for the US. When I first found out about this, I expected the worst, I thought the US would not take particularly effective measures to stop it, and I basically assumed that we'd see between 2 (somehow flatten the curve) and 5% (hospitals overloaded) of the population die in 2020. But now I'm not sure. Data coming out suggesting that young people aren't hit as hard, data coming out suggesting a large amount (as many as 50% of all cases) of asymptomatic cases. Maybe my initial estimate of fatalities was too high.
I don't know, man
It's all messy - I agree. What I wonder is because of how gradual the initial outbreak likely occurred, and how quickly the quarantine was enacted, if it cut the doubling factor early, so if instead of being
1 2 4 8 6 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192
the full quarantine happens - say - ten days into the above timeline, spread slows. Obviously not science, but let's pretend that it went
1 2 4 8 6 32 64 128 256 384 640 1024 1664 2688
But - like you said - I don't know, man
Please refrain from using ableist terms.
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Their basing that on the urns delivered and the calculated max capacity of all the cities crematorium running 24/7
The thing they forgot was the 40 mobile incinerators that the CCP shipped in to Wuhan back in February.
Well Wuhan alone 47,000, what about the other parts of China? It could be and probably is closer to 100k, because their population density is even higher than New York and look at how it's spreading there.
All of the Chinese cell carriers report an agragate of 21 million people who have dropped their cell service in the last 3 months in China. The same carriers have not recorded any drop in customers in like 10 years.
I'm trying to find how they are coming up with these numbers but I'm not sure where this is sourced.
The main thing this comes from looks like number of cremation urns (5000 of them) shipped to one funeral home. This number comes from one source named "Caixin" which has previously claimed 2500 urns for the previous 2 days. There is literally no other source for this
Alongside this point of data, there are lots of "estimations" from "Social Media":
Some social media posts have estimated that all seven funeral homes in Wuhan are handing out 3,500 urns every day in total.
Who are these social media users? What are their estimations based on? No information.
Without more information I would take all of this with a grain of salt
This seems to be a bit more plausible:
A source with knowledge within provincial civil affairs bureau claimed that Wuhan had 28,000 cremations within just one month. The insider added that many of the fatalities were people that had died at home and had neither been diagnosed with nor treated for the virus.
Aside from "a source" and whatever that means, this seems to imply that the number of deaths are underreported because of the people dying at home not counting towards the Covid-19 death totals. The same thing is being done by Italy. While I understand it is hard to figure out their cause of death if they were never tested I think we should do better and still test all of these people posthumously. The least those people could have ended up was to be a statistic and even that is not guaranteed it seems
>While I understand it is hard to figure out their cause of death if they were never tested I think we should do better and still test all of these people posthumously.
When test kits and medical workers were already under supply testing dead bodies means killing people who still had a chance to live.
this.none of these "sources" has any credibility in them (yet, but im not denying the possibilities of them being true either) but everyone here likes to jump on the gun as long as it fits the propaganda of the "CCP is lying".
seriously though, chill. we all know the CCP is lying, we all know that for ages now. saying it everytime when there's a rumours from an unknown source is completely unnecessary and dumb especially when the rumours turns out to be false.
wait for an actual fact and then pitch your forks.
Radio Free Asia/Europe publish literal lies over and over again and somehow redditors believe it. They were the people who started the “Everyone in North Korea must have the same haircut as Kim Jong-Un” myth. It was created by the CIA to spread deliberate fake news in the Eastern Bloc and is now repurposed for gullible redditors
I know a lot of people here are chomping at the bit to believe this, but everyone needs to take a big step back. This article is trying to create an estimated number of dead based almost entirely off of urn deliveries and a comment on social media. Like a bad game of telephone, this article keeps on getting shared over and over again but each article gets progressively worse in describing how they are arriving at this conclusion.
The previous articles about this created some bizarre math formula where they took a social media comment about the potential for 3,500 urns to be distributed daily during the Qing Ming festival; multiplied it by 12 for the number of days of the Chinese Qing Ming festival, and then subtracted to 16,000 (wuhans expected number of of non-covid deaths) from 42,000 urns and alleged that the death toll may be 26,000 Covid-19 deaths.
This article forgets to even do that, and just alleges that the number could be 42,000 Covid-19 deaths without ANY evidence.
I know there is a tendency to want to believe things that sound like they could be right, but there is no actual evidence to support any of these accusations. Citing that this one mortuary had a delivery of 3000 urns as evidence that nearly 40,000 more people could be dead is ridiculous.
"Social media posts have estimated that the seven funeral homes in the city were creating around 3,500 urns daily over the past week and a half. This would put the tally of fatalities at around 42,000."
This isn't true! They were not "creating" urns. There was a shipment of urns. The reason the 3,500 urn number became 42,000 was not because that's how many were being "created" each day. It was an estimate based on the Qing Ming festival being 12 days long. 3,500 x 12 = 42,000! The 3,500 number was an estimate on social media, and the 12 days number is a moot point because China postponed the festival till April 30th anyway! This article took someone else's estimate from last week and repeated it as if they were concrete numbers that actually happened.
Whoever wrote this article just saw another article and started repeating numbers without any context. There has been so much bad science going around and people simply repeating data points they don't understand. And in this case, it's not even data points but speculation on social media!